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Chip stocks are in a bubble, at least by this definition, says analyst

The definition of a “bubble” is notoriously difficult to pin down. But these analysts applied a Harvard academic’s rubric and found the shoe fits for some popular tech stocks.

The burbling question about whether bubbles have formed in the US stock market seems to have simmered down slightly, as the S&P 500 has stalled out around record highs for the last month and a half or so.

And quantifying exactly how to define what one means by a “bubble” is always tricky, too.

But in a 2017 paper, Harvard economist Robin Greenwood took a close look at market characteristics that may help identify bubbles, finding that high volatility, increased share issuance, and sharp acceleration in gains can help identify high-flying shares that go on to crash.

In a note published Monday, analysts at Ned Davis Research, a well-respected market-watching shop based in Sarasota, Florida, applied some of those proposed analytical criteria to individual stocks, finding a few clear candidates for bubble status, including retail favorites like Palantir, Nvidia, and Broadcom, among others. They wrote:

“The Greenwood study was specifically designed to identify bubbles at the industry level. However, we borrowed the bubble definition and applied it to S&P 500 stocks as an objective measure of ‘unusually large’ price returns...

On October 30, 2025, the peak for the current cycle, we found 5.8% (29) of S&P 500 companies met the bubble criteria. Note the peak percent of companies in a bubble in 2000 was much higher at 9.2% (46 companies).

In the table [below] we highlight the 29 companies (17.9% of S&P 500 market cap) that met the bubble criteria as of October 30, 2025. We believe 18 of 29 are AI related. Interestingly, none of the MAG 7 except NVIDIA meet our bubble criteria. However, observe the concentration in semiconductor stocks.”

The analysts stressed that even if one were able to identify bubbles, that’s different than knowing when such financial prices will plunge — i.e., when to sell.

But, they concluded, “if we are in a bubble, it is being led by Nvidia and Semiconductors.”

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IonQ and D-Wave Quantum spike as Jefferies initiates coverage with “buy” ratings

Shares of IonQ and D-Wave Quantum are soaring on Tuesday after Jefferies initated coverage on the stocks with buy ratings and price targets of $100 and $45, respectively.

Rigetti Computing, which Jefferies started with a hold rating and $30 price target, is modestly lower. These three quantum computing companies are all down between 40% and 60% from their October all-time highs.

All 13 analysts who cover D-Wave have a buy (or equivalent) rating, while 75% of the dozen on Wall Street who have a rating on IonQ recommend the stock.

While the speculative AI-linked stocks continue to largely get crushed, this pocket of the market also favored by retail traders is showing some signs of life.

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Frontier sinks as longtime CEO, who regularly feuded with United, suddenly departs

Shares of ultra-budget airline Frontier are down more than 10% on Tuesday morning following the carrier’s announcement that it would replace its longtime CEO, Barry Biffle. Frontier President James Dempsey will fill in as interim CEO.

Biffle, who has been Frontier’s CEO since early 2016, will remain at the airline in an “advisory capacity” until December 31. The move is “not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices,” per a company filing.

Under Biffle, Frontier attempted to acquire rival Spirit twice since 2022 — both unsuccessful. Last week, the carrier’s shares dropped after Spirit’s pilots ratified a lower-paying contract in an effort to keep it afloat through its latest bankruptcy.

Biffle was a staunch defender of the ultra-budget model, which has been falling out of fashion in the US market in recent years. He’s regularly feuded with United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby over comments about budget airlines.

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Nuclear power startup Oklo clears another regulatory hurdle

Oklo said the Department of Energy’s Idaho office approved a safety plan for its proposed nuclear fuel production plant at the Idaho National Laboratory, a center of nuclear research and testing in the US.

The zero-revenue designer of smaller nuclear power plants was the first company to receive approval under the Department of Energy’s new Fuel Line Pilot Program, established by executive order from President Trump in May. The program is designed to speed up the approval process for domestic production of nuclear fuel, helping to reduce reliance on foreign sources of raw materials needed for nuclear power. The approval is “effectively granting permission to start facility assembly,” Oklo said in a statement.

Prior to the new fuel line program, the Department of Energy didn’t typically regulate the plans for private sector production of nuclear fuel, which was left to the Nuclear Regulatory Council, an independent regulator with a mandate to protect public health and safety.

Government approvals have been an important source of credibility for Oklo, whose shares have soared this year by almost 300% despite having no profits or sales.

The stock was recently down 1.7%.

Those approvals have drawn scrutiny, however, to the close connections between the company and the Trump administration, including the fact that the current secretary of energy, Chris Wright, served on the board of Oklo until he took office in February.

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