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Luke Kawa & David Crowther

CoreWeave guidance disappoints as delays weigh on data center ramp despite blowout top and bottom line beats

CoreWeave reported a strong sales beat in Q3, with bottom-line results to match.

  • Revenue: $1.36 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $1.23 billion and guidance for $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion)

  • Adjusted operating income: $217.15 million (estimate: $177.2 million, guidance: $160 million to $190 million)

Those figures exceeded every estimate among analysts polled by Bloomberg.

More strong sales seem to be in the pipeline: CoreWeave’s revenue backlog swelled to $55.6 billion at the end of the quarter, nearly double the $30.1 billion at the end of Q2.

But they’re not imminent: in fact, despite this revenue beat, CoreWeave reduced its 2025 annual sales forecast to a range of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion from its prior outlook for $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion.

That cut to its guidance has shares deep in the red on Tuesday morning during premarket trading.

CoreWeave seems to be having a little trouble getting as much compute up and running as Wall Street had hoped for, with active power of 590 megawatts at the end of the quarter, where analysts had anticipated nearly 625 megawatts.

On the earnings call, the company’s executives discussed a delay to one of their data centers in more detail, a problem which is weighing on its Q4 and FY25 guidance. To be clear, CoreWeave isn’t flagging access to power in particular as a critical bottleneck right now (unlike Microsoft’s and Nvidia’s leaders). Rather, it’s the other physical infrastructure supporting the data center that’s the issue.

Michael Intrator, CoreWeave’s CEO, said:

So you're going to be hearing this theme repeated again and again as you talk to not just CoreWeave, but across the space. And it is a real challenge at the powered shell level. It's not a challenge for power, right? There's plenty of power right now, and we believe that there will be ample power for the next couple of years. But really where the challenge is, is the powered shell.

Accordingly, CoreWeave’s guidance for over 850 megawatts of active power at year end would entail the company falls well short of the current consensus estimates for nearly 900 megawatts.

It’s going to take a lot of supply chain unfurling to realize its revenue backlog on schedule.

CoreWeave revenue backlog
Source: CoreWeave Q3 earnings presentation

The neocloud company had a busy quarter, reaching a $14 billion pact with Meta for AI compute, expanding its agreement with OpenAI, and signing a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia for any unused cloud computing capacity, among others. CoreWeave’s recent attempt at vertical integration failed, as Core Scientific shareholders voted overwhelmingly against its proposed acquisition on October 30.

However, there’s a little less drama around this quarter’s results than there was for the last one. That’s because its lock-up period expired shortly after CoreWeave’s impressive Q2 results, catalyzing a wave of profit taking in the AI darling.

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Matt Phillips

Sandisk and Micron slip as Samsung rushes new product into production

Sandisk and Micron, which have boomed along with prices for the memory chips needed for the AI data center build-out, are limping behind the broader market Monday after a weekend report that South Korean chip giant Samsung is beginning “mass production” of its latest memory product, HBM4, slightly earlier than expected.

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

Samsung to begin mass production of HBM4 chips later this month: sources | Yonhap News Agency

Samsung moves first on HBM4 in bid to regain AI memory edge

US memory chip maker Micron also makes HBM (high-bandwidth memory), which is essentially a large memory product designed for AI applications.

Sandisk doesn’t make HBM. But it is developing a kind of high-bandwidth flash NAND memory product that is intended to function as an HBM option for AI data centers.

More broadly, signs that Asian production giants are responding to high prices by ramping up supply means that the nosebleed pricing of memory chips that quintupled Sandisk’s profit over the last year might not last forever.

Hyunsoo Rim
GLUTIDE TURNED
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Novo Nordisk has lost most of its post-Wegovy market cap gains

A weak sales outlook and a copycat scare capped a brutal week for Europe’s one-time most valuable company.

Still life of a bottle of the new Wegovy semaglutide tablets on a womans hand.
markets
Matt Phillips

Oracle rises as DA Davidson gives it a “buy” rating because of OpenAI positivity

Oracle rose after receiving an upgrade to start the week. Analysts at DA Davidson bumped up their view on the stock from “neutral” to “buy” and kept their $180 price target on the shares. That’s about 27% higher than Friday’s close.

Their shift isn’t so much about Oracle but about OpenAI, which Davidson folks now think is increasingly likely to be able to make good on billions of dollars’ worth of planned spending on computing power at Oracle and other hyperscalers. They wrote:

“We are now more positive on OpenAI, based on changes in strategy, new frontier models, the pressure on Google’s competitors from its recent ascent, and progress on its fundraising efforts. Most importantly, we believe OpenAI already has as much as $40B of cash on hand and may be raising as much as another $100B by the end of the quarter, which should help pay for the data centers Oracle is building for OpenAI. Since the market is currently assigning the OpenAI relationship a negative value, we believe the fundraise will serve as a catalyst for outperformance.”

For OpenAI’s part, CEO Sam Altman just told employees that the company was “back to exceeding 10% monthly growth,” according to CNBC reporting.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Roblox rises following upgrade and price target hike from Roth Capital as growth in older players boosts optimism

Shares of Roblox are up in early trading on Monday following a price target hike and an upgrade from “neutral” to “buy” from Roth Capital.

Roth bumped its price target up from $78 to $84, with analyst Eric Handler citing the company’s “sustainable virtuous circle where continuously improving creator/development tools are producing higher quality games, which enhances the user experience, and drives higher engagement.”

Handler also noted Roblox’s success in growing its 18-plus player base, which increased 50% last year and, per Roth, “monetized 40% higher than under-18-users.”

The platform surged after reporting its fourth-quarter earnings last week, with stronger-than-expected full-year bookings guidance. Still, the stock remains below levels in January, before the debut of Google’s AI interactive worlds generator, Project Genie.

markets
Luke Kawa

AppLovin jumps after CapitalWatch announces “significant revisions” to negative report but says stance on company “remains unchanged”

AppLovin is trading to the upside on Monday morning after a financial research agency issued a “correction and apology” regarding some of the claims in its negative report on the company and its principals.

Shares of the ad tech firm tumbled in January as CaptialWatch called it “the ultimate monument to 21st-century new-type transnational financial crime.”

But after “a rigorous internal review,” CapitalWatch determined that the allegations of money laundering directed at one of AppLovin’s largest shareholders, Hao Tang, were based on a judicial document that was interpreted erroneously, and that his connections with other parties in the report “were inaccurate and failed to meet our publication standards.”

However, the outlet still argues that it’s right on the company, but just didn’t have enough evidence to single out Tang individually. Per CapitalWatch:

“Our review concluded that while the macro data and transaction structures highlighted in the original report warrant market scrutiny, the information currently available is legally insufficient to attribute these complex capital operations directly and exclusively to Mr. Tang. We have chosen to retract the allegations directed at Mr. Tang personally out of strict adherence to evidentiary principles, not as a denial of the objective market phenomena observed.”

“Our stance regarding the complex financial structure of AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP) remains unchanged.”

AppLovin forcefully denied the original report, saying it was “rife with false, misleading, and nonsensical allegations.”

The firm, like most in the software space, has floundered recently amid potential disruptive threats from AI tools and new entrants.

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