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Critical Metals is now worth more than $3 billion. It had only four full-time employees at the end of June

The rare earth trade has been heating up, even in tiny stocks with very few employees.

Since President Trump’s interest in the sector kicked off a flurry of buying activity, the hottest trade on Wall Street has been in rare earth stocks.

Names like Critical Metals, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and United States Antimony Corp. have soared as investors wager that the US government’s involvement in the sector — which has included directly buying stakes in some companies, providing financing for others, and greenlighting a growing number of projects — will continue. With China recently stepping up restrictions on exporting rare earth metals, those bets have turned out to be well made.

Critical Metals Corp., which engages in the mining, exploration, and development of lithium metals via its Wolfsberg and Tanbreez projects, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. From a market cap in early May that was below $150 million, the company’s stock has soared, turning it into a more than $3 billion entity as of yesterday’s close. That’s more than what embattled fitness equipment maker Peloton is worth.

In early October, CRML, which has a 92% stake in Greenland’s biggest rare earths mining project, leaped after rumors swirled that the US government was looking at taking a stake in the company. Sources later cited by Bloomberg denied that such a deal was being considered — but that hasn’t stopped the stock from taking off.

A good example of just how far investors are willing to bet on the future, CRML reported revenue — technically “other income,” which was from European Union grants or interest on cash sat on deposit — of just ~$560,000 (a typical McDonald’s restaurant does about 7x as much in a year) in its most recent fiscal year, ended June 30, 2025. Most striking of all, however, is its employee base [emphasis our own]:

“As of June 30, 2025, we had 4 full-time employees with a significant number of personnel engaged on a contractor basis. We believe we have good relations with our employees.”

That is, obviously, an astonishingly low headcount for a billion-dollar company. But what’s more astonishing is that it doesn’t seem to preclude a major deal from happening: Trilogy Metals, which has surged alongside CRML and the rest of the rare earth winners, secured a $35.6 million strategic investment by the US federal government on October 6. Trilogy Metals reported just five full-time employees in its most recent filings.

As my colleague Luke Kawa astutely observed at the end of September: why follow the Fed when you can follow the feds?

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Diverse partnership’s $40 billion data center may the future of funding for AI

Another day, another multibillion-dollar data center deal.

The announced $40 billion buyout — including debt — of Texas-based Aligned Data Centers on Wednesday was the first for a consortium established last year by a diverse base of investors including giant money management firm BlackRock, Abu Dhabi-based technology investment fund MGX, and Microsoft.

Some analysts suggest the variety of investors in such a deal — including tech giants, sovereign investment funds and the private pools of capital controlled by entities like BlackRock — will be an increasingly common site, as the enormously expensive buildout of AI infrastructure continues over the coming years.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently estimated that there will be some $2.9 trillion of spending on data centers globally by 2028. Some $1.4 trillion of that will be covered by the cash flows produced by giant hyper scalers like Microsoft, leaving a need for some $1.5 trillion from other sources. The analysts wrote that their “broad takeaway was bullishness on the availability of those sources of capital.”

Some analysts suggest the variety of investors in such a deal — including tech giants, sovereign investment funds and the private pools of capital controlled by entities like BlackRock — will be an increasingly common site, as the enormously expensive buildout of AI infrastructure continues over the coming years.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently estimated that there will be some $2.9 trillion of spending on data centers globally by 2028. Some $1.4 trillion of that will be covered by the cash flows produced by giant hyper scalers like Microsoft, leaving a need for some $1.5 trillion from other sources. The analysts wrote that their “broad takeaway was bullishness on the availability of those sources of capital.”

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Rigetti Computing tanks amid souring retail sentiment, bearish options bets

Rigetti Computing is getting taken to the woodshed on Wednesday amid souring retail trader sentiment and options bets on near-term downside.

In particular, one post on Reddit’s wallstreetbets forum from user bespoketrancheop, which shows the Google Street view (circa March 2025) of Rigetti’s listed headquarters, is generating a lot of attention. It’s the most popular Rigetti-centric post on the subreddit in the past seven months.

Rigetti HQ
r/wallstreetbets via bespoketrancheop

Per our executive editor, it’s giving this:

Clinton meme
Source: imgflip

But as one commenter notes, this isn’t exactly new news: “People been posting this since it was $11,” with another pointing out that “making an assessment on a google street view is lazy dd [editor’s note: due diligence].”

For what it’s worth, Rigetti’s Quantum Fab manufacturing facility in Fremont looks a lot more like a place where next-gen technology is being developed and a lot less like the middle school one of my colleagues went to.

Of course, it’s impossible to single this out as <the> specific catalyst for the price action in Rigetti today. But since there’ve been dozens of days in the past couple months where quantum computing stocks went up on no news whatsoever, it stands to reason there are also going to be days when they go down for no (good) reason whatsoever.

More important, perhaps, is the flurry of major options bets positioning for downside in the quantum computing company this week. Put options with a strike price of $50 that expire this Friday are in demand. That contract had open interest of under 7,000 heading into today but has already seen volumes of more than 30,000, suggesting fresh wagers made on a pullback in the formerly high-flying stock.

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AMD soars as HSBC hikes price target to a Street high of $310

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices are soaring after HSBC analyst Frank Lee strapped his price target for the chip designer to a rocket ship, hiking it to $310 from $185. The new price target ties that of Arete Research’s Brett Simpson for the highest on Wall Street, per data from Bloomberg.

The recently announced deal with OpenAI, which was followed by news that AMD will deploy 50,000 AI chips in Oracle’s data centers, catalyzed a massive wave of Wall Street love for AMD.

But that’s just nowhere near enough compared to what the stock deserves, per Lee, who sees AMD’s MI450 series of AI chips as being sufficiently competitive to Nvidia’s offerings. Through 2030, he sees the revenue opportunity of the OpenAI deal to be $80 billion.

“We believe the Street has underestimated the AI GPU revenue with our estimates 50% and 45% above consensus for 2026e and 2027e, respectively,” he wrote. “We believe there could be further upside driven by pricing premium as well as additional AI GPU volume.”

HSBC on AMD revisions
Source; HSBC

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