Markets
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David Crowther

Even after the DeepSeek and AI meltdowns, Wall Street's still sticking with its lofty Nvidia price targets

It might only be March 17, but for Nvidia investors, the year so far might have felt like a lifetime.

Everything happens so much

First came the DeepSeek freak-out, a violent sell-off sparked by a Chinese AI model that was reportedly trained for a fraction of the cost of its Western rivals. Then came tariffs, an ongoing growth slowdown scare, and a sharp reversal in the fortunes of momentum stocks — almost all of which were heavily associated with an AI trade predicated on a continued “capex orgy” as Big Tech companies plan data centers the size of large cities.

So, given all that’s happened this year, how have Wall Street analysts changed their views on Nvidia? Well... they haven’t really. At least not in the aggregate.

Data from FactSet reveals that the average (mean) price target for Nvidia at the end of last year, before any of those headlines hit the tape, was $173.81. Today it’s $174.79, or 0.6% higher.

Nvidia Price Targets
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It’s plausible, if a little embarrassing, that some analysts simply haven’t gotten around to rerunning the numbers in the wake of this latest sell-off. But clearly many of the analysts — and there are nearly 70 of them in total — believe that the fundamental equity story remains unchanged for Wall Street’s most-watched stock, even as the world around it shifts. At the company’s full-year results, Nvidia beat on both the top and bottom lines, though, with the rollout of its Blackwell GPUs progressing steadily, gross margins might compress slightly in the short term.

After a volatile last seven days or so, the next big catalyst for the stock could come quickly, as CEO Jensen Huang takes the stage tomorrow at GTC 2025, Nvidia’s biggest conference of the year. Investors will be on the lookout for mentions of 2026 demand and any updates on its next-gen chip Vera Rubin (named after the astronomer).

Related reading: 73 Wall Street analysts cover Amazon, there are 72 on Meta, and 66 write about Nvidia — how many do we need?

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Matt Phillips

AI server cluster maker Penguin Solutions takes flight

Small cap AI server-cluster maker Penguin Solutions surged Thursday, after posting better-than-expected Q2 revenue and profit numbers Wednesday after the close, along with an increase in full-year sales and profit guidance.

The company — which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024 — has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

Its Advanced Computing division designs and sells computers, cabling, and coolings systems, the server racks and clusters of racks AI data centers need. Its other main division sells flash and DRAM memory products.

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

The stock is volatile. Penguin dove during last year’s tariff tantrum that followed Liberation Day in April. Then it turned tail and doubled through early October, amid a surge of call options activity that tends to reflect retail interest. From the October peak, it then plunged by about 50%, before Thursday’s renaissance.

For what it’s worth, call options activity in Penguin is pretty busy today too — relatively speaking — with roughly 2,625 traded as of about 1:15 pm ET. That’s the most since early January, when the company last reported quarterly numbers. The average volume over the previous 25 trading sessions is about 325 calls a day, according to FactSet data.

Penguin Solutions Stock Takes Off On AI Bolstered Outlook

Penguin Solutions Stock Takes Off On AI Bolstered Outlook

The company — which was known as Smart Global Holdings until July 2024 — has positioned itself as a provider of “end-to-end AI infrastructure solutions.”

Its Advanced Computing division designs and sells computers, cabling, and coolings systems, the server racks and clusters of racks AI data centers need. Its other main division sells flash and DRAM memory products.

It’s a pretty small company, with a fully diluted market cap of just over $1 billion and roughly 2,900 employees, according to FactSet.

The stock is volatile. Penguin dove during last year’s tariff tantrum that followed Liberation Day in April. Then it turned tail and doubled through early October, amid a surge of call options activity that tends to reflect retail interest. From the October peak, it then plunged by about 50%, before Thursday’s renaissance.

For what it’s worth, call options activity in Penguin is pretty busy today too — relatively speaking — with roughly 2,625 traded as of about 1:15 pm ET. That’s the most since early January, when the company last reported quarterly numbers. The average volume over the previous 25 trading sessions is about 325 calls a day, according to FactSet data.

markets
Luke Kawa

Momentum returns to optics stocks as the release valve for AI optimism

Potentially imminent end to the war? Buy optics stocks.

Maybe not? Buy optics stocks anyway.

Effectively all the juice left in the AI trade is coming from optics (and memory) stocks. And the latter group is taking a bit of a breather today while the former continues to surge.

Shares of Ciena Corp., Lumentum, and Coherent are building on recent big gains and among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 near midday, while Applied Optoelectronics is also surging on Thursday.

These companies all provide solutions that help information move around in data centers, and thus are key beneficiaries of the aggressive capex plans of hyperscalers. Nvidia has invested $2 billion apiece in Coherent and Lumentum in deals that also include purchase commitments.

markets
Matt Phillips

Space stocks rip during a topsy-turvy day for the equity market

Satellite-services-from-space stocks surged Thursday after reports that Amazon is in talks to buy Globalstar, which provides voice and connectivity services from its satellite network. It also can’t hurt that the general mood around space is ebullient, following the successful launch of Artemis II on Thursday.

Planet Labs and ViaSat also soared on the news.

The gains for EchoStar — seen as a backdoor play at pre-IPO SpaceX exposure — and Rocket Lab were more muted, perhaps because a deep-pocketed competitor like Jeff Bezos getting serious about space services could complicate the plans of the two largest commercial space launch companies.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the dominant provider of such services, and the early rumors on the company’s planned IPO — expected to be the largest ever — suggest the market is very excited about the prospects for the industry.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

Globalstar surges after FT reports that Amazon is in talks to buy the satellite group

Globalstar surges after FT reports that Amazon is in talks to buy the satellite group

The gains for EchoStar — seen as a backdoor play at pre-IPO SpaceX exposure — and Rocket Lab were more muted, perhaps because a deep-pocketed competitor like Jeff Bezos getting serious about space services could complicate the plans of the two largest commercial space launch companies.

Rocket Lab and SpaceX see launch services as key to their aspirations of being major providers of voice and data services from low-Earth orbit satellites.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the dominant provider of such services, and the early rumors on the company’s planned IPO — expected to be the largest ever — suggest the market is very excited about the prospects for the industry.

Elsewhere in the space stock world, Intuitive Machines — a maker of space infrastructure that provides services to NASA for lunar missions — also rose.

Hyunsoo Rim, David Crowther
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