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South Park (Photo by Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
You Bastards!

Did South Park mark the top for weight-loss stocks?

Once a company or product is featured on the show, things tend to go badly.

Luke Kawa

South Park doesn’t just kill Kenny. It may also kill stock market trends.

In the May 24 television special “End of Obesity,” writer Trey Parker directly name-checks Ozempic, the weight-loss drug made by Novo Nordisk, as well as Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro. 

Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, did the leg work and found that once a company or its product is featured prominently on an episode of the animated comedy series, its stock tends to underperform the S&P 500 by 7 percent over the following 12 months.

The rationale behind South Park as a contrarian indicator: if the subject matter is accessible enough that we can laugh at the absurdity of its high place in society, well, it probably can’t command much more mind-share or wallet-share going forward.

“South Park has a 20+-year history of capturing the cultural zeitgeist and it’s impossible to argue that anything that is lampooned on South Park is not priced in,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Or, as James van Geelen, CEO of Citrini Research, puts it:


Here are the stats:

South Park Market Track Record
Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets

Granted, there’s extremely large variance: Netflix went on to beat the S&P 500 by more than 100% over the following 12 months; cannabis company MedMen, which filed for bankruptcy in late April, underperformed by almost 100%.

Separately, Donnelly noted that new themed exchange-traded fund launches can also serve as a contrarian indicator that strength in a popular pocket of the market is getting long in the tooth. To that end, two firms, Roundhill Investments and Amplify ETFs, recently launched two new products (OZEM and THNR, respectively) that provide exposure to companies offering GLP-1 treatments.

Donnelly’s conclusion: “Not a bad time to lighten up on the GLP-1 basket. It’s all priced in.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

markets

Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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