Trump Media may be the worst Trump trade

Amid a worsening market rout, we checked in on some of the stocks and assets that posted notable bounces following President Trump’s victory in last year’s election.

These so-called “Trump trades” often have some sort of close linkages — sometimes financial, sometimes political and ideological, sometimes both — to the Trump administration or the president’s family.

Axon, the maker of tasers, body cams, and other products for security services, was up as much as 60% since the election as recently as two weeks ago. Bitcoin exploded as the market bet on much looser regulation.

Tesla was briefly up more than 90% in the weeks following the election, as the market predicted the business would benefit from CEO Elon Musk’s (who spent roughly $250 million to reelect Trump) immersion in Trump’s world.

Likewise, Palantir, whose largest individual shareholder is longtime Republican mega-donor Peter Thiel and largest single customer is the US government, soared in recent months amid huge retail involvement in the shares.

Exactly how these connections would redound to the benefit of shareholders in these corporations was always a bit murky.

Shifts in White House policy can legitimately just favor certain businesses. But one can also imagine less transparent approaches like contracting shenanigans, regulatory favors, or the creation of federal roadblocks to competition, which should make advocates of free and competitive markets shudder.

But at a certain point, the performance of the business itself also seems to matter.

We can see that most clearly in the performance of Trump Media & Technology Group. It soared to wild levels of overvaluation in the aftermath of the election, as Trumpist euphoria swept the stock market. But it remains a truly horrible business and as of today, has shed over 35% of its value since November 6, 2024.

Last month it reported that it had a $400 million annual loss in 2024, while remarkably paying its CEO, former California GOP congressman Devin Nunes, nearly $47 million, mostly in stock.

And the market responded, with Trump Media clearly one of the worst-performing Trump trades one could have made, if one didn’t get out while the getting was good.

At the same time, it’s worth noting that some Trump trades continue to hold onto their gains, such as federal immigration contractor Geo Group, which is still up 65% since Trump defeated Joe Biden, as Trump’s tougher approach to immigration and deportation seems to be something that investors think they can count on.