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DOGE risk to consulting sinks IBM

IBM is down by the most in almost exactly a year, despite reporting Q1 numbers Wednesday afternoon that beat analyst forecasts.

In fact, the stock saw a reflexive jump in the immediate aftermath of the report, but the optimism fizzled almost immediately after company executives tiptoed their way through Big Blue’s conference call.

Analysts seemed especially interested in somewhat sluggish results from IBM’s consulting business, where sales slipped 2% (essentially flat on a constant currency basis), and whether that may have reflected the effects of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s DOGE effort to rip up root and branch the way the federal government operates.

While stressing that sales to the federal government account for less than 5% of total revenues and 10% of its consulting revenues, company executives acknowledged some risk to their business selling technology services to Uncle Sam.

CEO Arvind Krishna said:

“To Consulting and DOGE, yes, we are not immune from all those activities, just like everybody else. We had a couple of contracts that were impacted in the first quarter. You would expect USAID, where we did some work was impacted, but not really in most other cases. The work we tend to do is much more mission-critical, is much more about building the government systems which make them more efficient and so, we see them carry on. Now, its hard to predict where that goes over the rest of the year. So Im not going to try and make that prediction on DOGE and Consulting, except to caution, as Jim said in his prepared remarks, if there is pressure in the economy, Consulting tends to see headwinds before other parts of the business.”

Analysts seemed especially interested in somewhat sluggish results from IBM’s consulting business, where sales slipped 2% (essentially flat on a constant currency basis), and whether that may have reflected the effects of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s DOGE effort to rip up root and branch the way the federal government operates.

While stressing that sales to the federal government account for less than 5% of total revenues and 10% of its consulting revenues, company executives acknowledged some risk to their business selling technology services to Uncle Sam.

CEO Arvind Krishna said:

“To Consulting and DOGE, yes, we are not immune from all those activities, just like everybody else. We had a couple of contracts that were impacted in the first quarter. You would expect USAID, where we did some work was impacted, but not really in most other cases. The work we tend to do is much more mission-critical, is much more about building the government systems which make them more efficient and so, we see them carry on. Now, its hard to predict where that goes over the rest of the year. So Im not going to try and make that prediction on DOGE and Consulting, except to caution, as Jim said in his prepared remarks, if there is pressure in the economy, Consulting tends to see headwinds before other parts of the business.”

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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