Duolingo jumps following BofA upgrade
Duolingo shares are down over 60% since hitting their peak last May, as slowing quarterly growth in key metrics like daily active users prompted analysts to sharply cut their long-term estimates for the company’s growth potential.
“We disagree,” Bank of America analysts wrote in a note Monday upgrading the stock to “buy” — from “neutral” — and slapping a $250 target on the stock.
They elaborated:
“Why? Because Duolingo’s value proposition extends beyond education into entertainment — a market investors have largely ignored. With gamified mechanics that rival top casual games and a growing portfolio of fun-first courses like Chess and Music, Duolingo taps into the large audience of mobile users seeking engaging ways to fill idle time. This dual positioning creates a long growth runway.”
In other words, they think addictiveness of the app has more in common with platforms like Roblox or the various iterations of Microsoft’s “Candy Crush” saga than the market currently understands. And that means that Duolingo can, perhaps, sustain higher long-term growth than investors seem to grok. In short, they argued that Duolingo deserves a more game-like valuation, which it will get as it surprises on growth in the coming years.
“We note that Duolingo’s financial forecast is similar to Roblox, but its multiple is significantly lower, despite its high mix of annual subscription customers,” they said.
Bank of America’s target for the shares is 30% higher than where the stock was trading Monday morning, despite the fact that Duolingo shares were having their best day in about three months. But even if it were to hit $250, the stock will still be more than 50% below its record closing high of $540.68 set last year on May 14.
“Why? Because Duolingo’s value proposition extends beyond education into entertainment — a market investors have largely ignored. With gamified mechanics that rival top casual games and a growing portfolio of fun-first courses like Chess and Music, Duolingo taps into the large audience of mobile users seeking engaging ways to fill idle time. This dual positioning creates a long growth runway.”
In other words, they think addictiveness of the app has more in common with platforms like Roblox or the various iterations of Microsoft’s “Candy Crush” saga than the market currently understands. And that means that Duolingo can, perhaps, sustain higher long-term growth than investors seem to grok. In short, they argued that Duolingo deserves a more game-like valuation, which it will get as it surprises on growth in the coming years.
“We note that Duolingo’s financial forecast is similar to Roblox, but its multiple is significantly lower, despite its high mix of annual subscription customers,” they said.
Bank of America’s target for the shares is 30% higher than where the stock was trading Monday morning, despite the fact that Duolingo shares were having their best day in about three months. But even if it were to hit $250, the stock will still be more than 50% below its record closing high of $540.68 set last year on May 14.
