markets

Matt Phillips7/28/25

Duolingo on pace for worst day since February

Language-learning app Duolingo is on track for its worst day since late February. There was little substantive news on the company, which reports Q2 numbers on August 6.

But analysts at Citizens JMP did cut their price target on the stock to $450 from $475, according to The Fly on the Wall, citing still soft numbers on the app’s new user growth. Analysts said that daily active user growth has decelerated from 53% in March to 37% in June.

Other analysts have spotted similar dynamics in recent weeks, saying the decline may in part be related to a LinkedIn post from Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn that talked up the company’s plans to be an AI-first organization and mentioned in passing that it would be letting go of some contractors as a result. Cue social media backlash.

Von Ahn subsequently clarified the company’s position, stressing that he sees AI as a tool for humans to use at the company, not a replacement for them. And most analysts seem to think that over the long term, Duolingo remains a good bet. (That’s also the case with Citizens JMP, which has kept its “outperform” rating on the shares.)

But the price target downgrade does represent a crack in the view represented in the consensus price target of $492 a share for the stock. (It’s currently about 45% lower, at $337.)

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markets

Matt Phillips16h

AI “bottleneck” stocks are the big winners halfway through a tumultuous week

Memory stocks and chip machinery companies are bouncing Wednesday, following a strong Oracle earnings report that bolstered confidence in the durability of the AI data center build-out.

In fact, Sandisk is the top performer of the S&P 500 so far this week, rising more than 21% from Friday’s close, as of shortly after 2 p.m. ET. Memory chip maker Micron is second in line, up more than 13% in weekly gains, and hard disk drive maker Western Digital is also getting a lift.

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

markets

Max Knoblauch18h

Papa John’s spikes following report of a $47-per-share take-private offer from Qatari investment fund Irth Capital

A few weeks after announcing it would close 300 stores by the end of next year, Papa John’s is drawing fresh take-private interest from Irth Capital, an investment fund backed by a member of the Qatari royal family.

Papa John’s shares were up 19% on Wednesday afternoon, on pace for their best day since February 2025.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, per the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June of last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap 9x greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

Exclusive | Papa John’s Draws Fresh Takeover Interest

Exclusive | Papa John’s Draws Fresh Takeover Interest

According to The Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, per the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June of last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap 9x greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

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