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The one group of people in markets who aren’t worrying about a recession

Earnings per share estimates are following a normal path ahead of the third-quarter reporting period, and 2025 profit forecasts are still going up.

Yiwen Lu

9/9/24 10:37AM

Corporate profitability is tethered to consumer welfare.

When estimated earnings per share (or EPS, a key measure of a company’s profitability) are revised higher, it’s generally a sign of solid economic times: workers have more more money to spend, so corporations make more. Vice versa for negative revisions, which suggest an economic soft patch where people are reducing spending and profits slide.

Thus, when everyone in the market is supposedly worrying about a bleak economic outlook, as has been the case lately, we should expect to see more downward pressure of EPS estimates. But the latest data compiled by FactSet suggests that analysts think that the economy is poised to keep chugging along.

For all S&P 500 companies, bottom-up EPS estimates — that is, an aggregation of the company-by-company forecasts — for the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 2.8% from June 30 to August 31. These estimates go down heading into a reporting period, only for companies to then exceed expectations on a lowered bar. One quant once slammed earnings season as “cheating season” for this very reason.

But is a 2.8% cut to EPS estimates unusually large?

FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters calculated the average decline of EPS estimates over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years and found that these ranged from 2.3% to 3.0%, meaning that the latest number sat fell around the middle of the range.

What’s more, expectations about the future further down the road are still getting sunnier. Butters also noted that while during the first two months of the quarter, EPS estimates for the third quarter dropped, analysts bumped up their EPS estimates for calendar year 2025 by 0.3%.

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J. Edward Moreno8h

FDA says it will take “decisive steps” against GLP-1 compounders, HHS refers Hims to DOJ for investigation

The Food and Drug Administration said it would take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 compounding, a day after Hims & Hers announced that it would sell copies ofNovo Nordisk’sWegovy pill.

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Tasha Matsumoto

Tech rebound propels stocks to best day since May

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed higher as the AI trade was back on.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91) and Michael Jordan (23) in action, rebounding vs Charlotte Hornets

Max Knoblauch12h

Airlines rise, continuing their volatile 2026, as US-Iran talks may foreshadow some oil supply relief

Airline stocks are surging on Friday, as the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term oil pricing relief following talks between the US and Iran. Iranian officials referred to the meeting as “a good beginning.”

Shares of budget carriers, which have tighter margins and are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, are leading the surge. Frontier Airlines and Allegiant up more than 13%, while major airlines like United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines are also up at least 6%. JetBlue and Alaska Air are similarly up about 6%.

The market more broadly is rebounding on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and bitcoin recovering some of this week’s losses.

Airlines have been volatile to start 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, varying annual forecasts, and the impact of winter storms.

Luke Kawa14h

The AI supply chain is soaring thanks to Amazon’s capex budget

If tech companies are going to spend way more than expected on capex, well, that means other companies are poised to benefit from that massive spending spree.

Amazon’s plan for $200 billion in business investment this year was the exclamation point to end a reporting period that saw every Magnificent 7 hyperscaler that provides guidance offer a 2026 capex budget well above what Wall Street had anticipated.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Matt Phillips14h

For memory chips, the “parabolic price hike” is continuing to ramp higher

The remarkable run-up in prices for memory chips continued into early February, analysts at Bernstein Research say, driven largely by data center demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers (CSP).

Prices for NAND flash memory wafers — a type of memory used in devices, as it retains data even when powered down — soared 35% between the end of 2025 and February 2.

Spot prices for DRAM — ubiquitous short-term data storage chips — jumped about 28% in that period. But that massively understates the remarkable shift in pricing for what were long seen as commodity tech hardware inputs. DRAM prices are more than 2,000% over the last year, while NAND prices are up more than 600% in that period.

The ongoing momentum provides still more support for memory chip plays like Micron and Sandisk, which have been big market winners in recent months.

In a note published earlier this week, Bernstein Research analysts wrote:

“The parabolic price hike continued in Jan. Indicated price increase for 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC and Mobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forward purchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate, as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however may stay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand.”

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