Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Energy price spike on Mideast war has traders betting on no Fed cuts through June

A war in the Middle East, and the resultant upward pressure on oil prices, has caused traders to reverse bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the first half of this year.

The prediction market-implied odds of a rate cut in June are less than 45% on Tuesday morning. Last week, the odds of a rate cut in June were around 60%. This comes as US national average gasoline prices rose 3.7% on Monday, their biggest one-day jump since 2005, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

In the short term, higher energy prices put upward pressure on inflation and downward pressure on economic activity. Higher gasoline prices reduce households’ ability to spend more on other discretionary goods and services.

Normally, Fed officials would want to “look through” the impact of higher energy prices as a temporary source of upward pressure on inflation that is not indicative of the underlying trend. That’s why energy (and food) prices are stripped out of core inflation. However, this time might be different:

  • Inflation has run above the Federal Reserve’s target for a prolonged period.

  • The central bank is a little scarred by the un-transitory and severe postpandemic inflation (which was meaningfully accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).

  • Monetary policymakers were already signaling that the stabilization in jobs data and previous cuts, which brought their policy rate closer to a neutral setting, meant the bar for additional easing was higher.

“I think the Fed will be reluctant to elevate growth over inflation risks right now,” wrote Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research. “Cuts have been a close-call as it is; thus, it’s tough to look through inflation when you are coming off a period of high inflation.”

More Markets

See all Markets
markets
Paige Oamek

ChargePoint Q1 revenue tops estimates, but cash pile dwindles

ChargePoint, an electric vehicle infrastructure company, topped analysts’ expectations for first-quarter revenue, but its cash pile dropped by about one-third.

Here are the numbers: 

  • Q1 revenue of $101.8 million (compared to analyst estimates of $95.6 million).

  • A Q1 loss per share of $1.75, compared with a $2.49 loss a year earlier.

After-hours, shares whipsawed as traders digested a slightly more complicated story, with ChargePoint continuing to burn through cash quickly. ChargePoint’s cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet totaled $95.8 million, while only a quarter ago it had held $141.5 million in cash. That’s a drop of 32%.

The industry overall is at a crossroads. With federal subsidy rollbacks, electric vehicle sales continue to continue to look relatively bleak in the United States. But with gas prices elevated because of the Iran war, Americans are looking more closely at EVs again and turning to more fuel-efficient options.

Results for other companies in the space, like Blink Charging Co., have been mixed: this earnings season it beat earnings-per-share estimates for Q1 but missed Wall Street revenue expectations. Meanwhile, another charging network, EVGo, beat on revenue and EPS, but investors’ reaction was mixed given the headwinds in the sector. 

markets
Paige Oamek

Five Below sinks despite Q1 earnings beat and optimistic Q2 outlook

Discount retailer Five Below delivered impressive Q1 earnings, beating out analyst estimates on Wednesday after the bell. But instead of getting a pat on the back, investors responded by sending the stock down as much as 9% in after-hours trading.

Here are the numbers:

  • Q1 sales of $1.28 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $1.23 billion, per FactSet).

  • Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $2.22 (estimate: $1.77).

The company raised its guidance for the full fiscal year and now projects full-year net sales between $5.40 billion and $5.48 billion (up from the $5.20 billion to $5.30 billion estimated last quarter), beating out analysts’ full-year estimates of $5.36 billion.

Similarly, the company expects Q2 revenue to fall between $1.18 billion and $1.20 billion, above Wall Street expectations of $1.14 billion.

The stock has risen over 80% in the past 12 months as consumers across income brackets search for affordable goods. The retailer has maintained its aggressive expansion campaign, opening 150 net new stores in fiscal year 2025. On Wednesday, Five Below said it still plans to open 150 further locations in fiscal year 2026.

Recently, the company has not only courted customers looking for cheaper everyday items, but also dopamine hits like its “squishy dumplings,” a Wall Street winner, according to analyst Spencer Hanus at Wolfe Research.

“Our continued focus on compelling newness at amazing value and great store execution are at the heart of our operating flywheel,” said Winnie Park, CEO of Five Below. “We successfully amplified social media trends and drove outsized traffic through coordinated merchandising and marketing efforts.”

markets
Jon Keegan

CrowdStrike sinks despite beating revenue and earnings for Q1, boosting guidance

CrowdStrike edged past analysts’ estimates for revenue and earnings in its fiscal first quarter.

For FY 2027 Q1, the cybersecurity platform posted:

  • Revenues of $1.39 billion (estimate: $1.36 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.10 (estimate: $1.07).

  • Annual recurring revenue of $5.51 billion, beating analyst estimates of $5.50 billion.

  • Subscription revenue of $1.32 billion, up 26% year on year.

The company also boosted its annual guidance for revenue and adjusted EPS, and it announced a 4-for-1 stock split.

Still, shares, which had surged some 60% over the past month, fell 8.2% after-hours.

Since Anthropic’s announcement of its forthcoming Mythos model, the cybersecurity industry has been bracing for an explosion in vulnerabilities that may be discovered using such advanced AI models.

In a press release, CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz said:

“In Q1, the worlds of cybersecurity and frontier AI collided: this was the Mythos moment. CrowdStrike is AI security infrastructure, critical to successful AI adoption.”

Tasha Matsumoto
2h
Stocks break winning streak as oil rises amid strikes in the Middle East

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all dropped as traders assessed attacks in the Gulf.

Sad brown bear
markets
Max Knoblauch

Rivian is on pace for its longest winning streak ever ahead of R2 deliveries next week

EV maker Rivian is climbing for the 10th consecutive day on Wednesday, putting the company on pace for its longest winning streak ever.

The stock has climbed more than 40% in the two-week stretch, as the company prepares to start customer deliveries of its highly anticipated R2 SUV on June 9. The EV will launch at nearly $60,000, with a lower-priced variant in the $45,000 range due to release late next year. Rivian has implied it expects to deliver up to 25,000 R2s this calendar year.

Despite the hot streak, Rivian shares are down about 7% year to date and nearly 90% from their all-time high in late 2021.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.
©2026 Sherwood Media, LLC