Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Equity futures rally, but rare earth stocks sink, as top officials bring US-China trade deal close to the finish line

Stock futures are starting off the week on a positive footing after top US and Chinese economic officials said they ironed out many contentious trade issues ahead of a much-anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping this week.

US Treasury Scott Bessent said the two sides created “a very successful framework” for their leaders to discuss at a planned meeting on Thursday in South Korea during the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, while China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, agreed that both parties reached “a preliminary consensus.”

The seemingly successful table-setting has S&P 500 equity futures up 0.83% as of 5:52 a.m. ET, extending gains after the benchmark US stock index set intraday and closing record highs on Friday.

Bessent also told the press that Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which caused temporary angst in markets earlier this month, is “effectively off the table.”

The Treasury Secretary added that he expects China to delay any restrictions on rare earth exports for a year and will start purchasing US soybeans in size once again.

While that’s positive news for a host of US companies that rely on an uninterrupted supply of minerals whose output is dominated by China, it’s also taking the wind out of the sails of some North American producers. As of 6 a.m. ET, Critical Metals is down more than 8%, USA Rare Earth is down 7%, Lithium Americas was down 3%, while United States Antimony Corp. is being hit the hardest, down more than 15%. Even MP Materials, which saw the Pentagon take a 10% stake in July, hasn’t been spared in early trading, down 5%, as the apparent trade truce reduces some of the urgency to boost local supply.

United States Antimony might also be down on the news that Australian mining company Larvotto Resources has rejected UAMY’s advances, shooting down the $723 million (AUD) scrip bid to acquire the firm proposed last week.

The TikTok deal and fentanyl were also among the topics discussed by negotiators this weekend, as were the tit-for-tat shipping fees that were implemented by both nations at major ports.

President Trump, for his part, told reporters, “I think we’re going to have a deal with China.”

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Hyunsoo Rim
BEAN COUNTERS
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China could start making "substantial" purchases of US soybeans, America's biggest agricultural export

A new trade deal could restart billions in soybean exports.

Flags of China and United States of America covered in soybeans. Concept of Chinese and American agricultural imports, exports, trade agreement, trade war, tariffs, production and commodity markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Semiconductor stocks soar on telegraphed trade truce with China

Semiconductor stocks, which were sold hard when US-China trade tensions flared up earlier this month, are being scooped up again in earnest after top officials from both countries indicated that positive discussions this weekend had cleared the runway for the world’s two largest economies to reach a deal.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell nearly 6%, its worst one-day drop since April, on October 10 when President Trump said he was mulling a “massive increase” on imported Chinese goods, later floating the potential for levies of 100%. It’s up nearly 2% as of 9:04 a.m. ET, with the likes of Micron, Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, and Broadcom outperforming.

Other stocks in the group doing well are wafer fab equipment makers Applied Materials and Lam Research, which had recently drawn the ire of US lawmakers because of their exposure to China — their most important market. Cadence Design Systems, an electronic design automation company that’s seen restrictions on its China business imposed and then removed this year, is also up.

“With tariffs and trade threats back and forth the last few weeks escalating on the China rare earth threats it appears a much broader trade framework/deal could be on the table this week between US and China which would be a huge groundbreaking moment for the tech sector and markets,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote. “This continues to be a lingering overhang on tech stocks that could be removed as the far reaching impact around the AI Revolution from chip production, Nvidia/AMD sales into China, software IP complexity, TikTok, and rare earth restrictions are all on the table in this game of high stakes poker between Trump and Xi.”

markets
J. Edward Moreno

Fermi rises after announcing nuclear deal with South Korean firms ahead of Trump visit

Fermi rose in early trading after it announced a nuclear deal with South Korean industrial firms Doosan Enerbility and Hyundai Engineering & Construction ahead of President Trump’s visit to the country this week.

Other nuke stock trades that hit headwinds last week picked up in sympathy with the Fermi news. Zero-revenue retail favorite Oklo — the subject of a skeptical story in the Financial Times last week — jumped more than 5%. Nuscale, another developer of still unapproved cutting-edge small modular reactors, also rose.

Fermi, which was cofounded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, plans to use nuclear energy to power data centers. The company is up about 20% since it went public earlier this month.

On Friday, the stock rallied after a wave of positive initial analyst coverage. Mizuho, Evercore, Cantor Fitzgerald, and other banks all initiated coverage on Fermi by giving it a “buy” rating.

markets
Luke Kawa

Strive, the Vivek Ramaswamy-backed bitcoin treasury company, is surging again on elevated retail interest

Strive Inc. is building on Friday’s massive gain with a big advance in the premarket on Monday, up roughly 25% as of 5:21 a.m. ET.

As of 5:02 a.m. ET, the bitcoin treasury company’s ticker was among the most referenced on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum over the past 12 hours, per data from SwaggyStocks.

SwaggyStocks
Source: SwaggyStocks

Record demand for bullish options propelled the bitcoin treasury company up 27% on Friday, with call volumes of 582,453. The activity was seemingly spurred by a tweet from Mike Alfred — a former entrepreneur with a popular account on X who was recently appointed to the board of directors at Bakkt Holdings — who announced that he had taken a position in the name:

Strive, which was cofounded by former GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy, positioned itself as a self-proclaimed “leader in the pushback against ESG and DEI mandates” before pivoting to become “the first publicly traded asset management firm to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy” in September, via a merger with Asset Entities.

markets
Luke Kawa

GameStop surges after the White House shares its post celebrating “Halo” availability on PlayStation for the first time

GameStop is surging in premarket trading after the official White House account shared one of its posts on X this weekend along with a comment.

On Saturday, the gaming and collectibles retailer declared an end to the so-called “Console Wars” after Microsoft said that next year’s “Halo: Campaign Evolved” will be available on PlayStation, the first time a title from this video game series will be available on the competing console.

That post was then reshared by the White House’s official account on Sunday night, along with an image of President Donald Trump as the military sci-fi series’ protagonist (a genetically engineered super-soldier), and the phrase “Power to the Players,” GameStop’s tagline.

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