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First Solar plunges after CEO sounds the alarm on tariffs

The company said it expects to pay up to $90 million in tariffs this year.

First Solar, the largest US manufacturer of solar panels and modules, said President Trumps tariff policies pose a significant economic headwind that will weigh on its bottom line this year.

The company also missed Wall Streets profit estimates for the first three months of the year, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.95, much less than the $2.49 analysts polled by FactSet penciled in. But perhaps more concerning to investors is what First Solar thinks is in store for the rest of the year.

First Solar, which analysts had previously considered well positioned against tariff threats because it doesnt rely on China, also cut its sales guidance for 2025 from between $5.3 billion and $5.8 billion to between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion. The company said it expects to pay up to $90 million in duties for imported materials and components. It also expects to take a hit of up to $270 million from underutilization charges for lowering capacity at its factories in Malaysia and Vietnam.

While the implementation of certain new trade policies was a possibility with the change in administration, the new tariff regime imposes — earlier this month has introduced significant challenges to 2025 that were not known at the start of the year, First Solar CEO Mark Widmar told analysts.

First Solar has factories in Malaysia and Vietnam, which almost exclusively serve the US market, and a factory in India that serves the region as well as North America. On April 2, Trump imposed tariff rates of 26%, 24%, and 46%, on India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, respectively. While those tariffs are on a 90-day pause, the 10% universal tariff rate still weighs on the companys bottom line, Widmar said.

There are things the company could do, like importing semi-finished modules to complete in the US, but as Trumps tariff policy keeps changing, Widmar said his only option is to sit and wait.

Theres a lot of strategies that we could do once we understand the policy environment and the tariff environment that were going to be in, he said. But I dont know any of that right now.

Widmar said that trade data for this year suggests Chinese manufacturers are importing through low-tariff countries like Laos and Indonesia. We have no doubt that these Chinese manufacturers are also seeking to establish production in other regions around the world, such as Saudi Arabia, forcing us into a continued game of whack-a-mole, Widmar said.

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Margins, and selling the news: analysts look to explain Oracle’s tumble

The somewhat counterintuitive tumble in Oracle shares continued into afternoon trading Friday, despite Wall Street analysts’ more or less favorable reaction to Oracle’s investor day presentation Thursday, where executives said the company’s AI cloud business would eventually sport margins of between 30% and 40%, far better than the figures reported by The Information back on September 7.

And yet, the stock is on its way to its worst day in the last six months. What gives?

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

Gil Lauria, who covers Oracle for D.A. Davidson & Co. — who has it at “hold” with a $300 price target — has a theory, telling Sherwood News:

“Investors are disappointed that the entire growth acceleration in Oracle is from the Oracle Cloud Infrastructure business, and that Oracle expects the rest of the business to grow low single digits.

The other disappointment came from Oracle acknowledging that the GPU rental business only had 30-40% gross margins, far lower than the 80% gross margins for the rest of the business.”

Other analysts we’ve chatted with on background say they’re not convinced the margin story is the source of today’s slump, suggesting the also plausible explanation that the drop might just be a sign traders bought the stock ahead of the presentation to analysts on Thursday anticipating positive announcements, and now they’re selling simply selling the news.

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Jon Keegan

Analysts generally like what they heard from Oracle, but shares are down

The big news out from the Oracle AI World conference was broadly positive: that margins on cloud infrastructure can be as high as 35%, and that the company predicts $166 billion in infrastructure revenue by 2030.

And in the wake of that news, today UBS raised its price target for Oracle shares to $380 from $360, saying they are undervalued.

But investors appear to have some concerns about Oracle’s huge capex plans, which are fueled by huge AI infrastructure deals with OpenAI and Meta, as shares dropped over 7% in Friday trading.

Analysts have pointed to Oracle’s high cash burn as it pursues its AI build-out and potential financing needs as flies in the ointment that could blunt the impact of the company’s strong longer-term growth forecasts.

On Friday, Jefferies analysts wrote:

“Questions remain about ORCL’s capex requirements to meet growing demand, as there was no forward-looking commentary on capex at the Analyst Day. Capex will need to ramp in line with [Oracle cloud infrastructure] revenue growth, raising concerns about ORCL’s financing options to support this expansion.”

However, if that’s the reason why the stock is getting hit today, it would mark a distinct change in how investors are evaluating the AI trade. Companies have tended to be increasingly rewarded for their aggressive capex commitments to enhance the boom, based on optimism that investments in this would-be revolutionary technology will bear fruit.

Friday’s dip comes on the back of a strong run leading up to the yesterday’s investor conference, fueled by a flurry of AI headlines. Oracle shares have gained over 18% in the past three months and more than 70% so far this year, well outpacing the Nasdaq’s approximately 7% and 16% rise over the same time periods.

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AST SpaceMobile drops after Barclays cuts rating to “underweight”

AST SpaceMobile, which provides cellular services from space, dove in early trading after Barclays analysts cut their rating on the shares to “underweight” (essentially a sell) from “overweight” (or a buy), citing “excessive” valuation on the still money-burning company. The fact that analysts went from “buy” to “sell” — with no momentary stop at a “hold” or “neutral” rating — makes it a fairly rare “double downgrade.”

They wrote:

“Valuation has run ahead of fundamentals... In our last update, we increased our price target from $38 to $60 as we took a more constructive view on pricing; we found it supportive that TMUS/Starlink launched a text only service for $10 per month and believe that AST products which will be richer (text, call, broadband) could see higher prices points. Since then the stock price has doubled from $48 to $95.7.”

With the shares up almost 120% over the last month through Thursday, and a price-to-forward-sales ratio of 140x — the Nasdaq Composite is around 5x — the stock might be due for a cooling-off period.

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