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NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Delivers Keynote At Developers Conference
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, metaphorically tangled up in export curbs (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Fresh semiconductor export curbs on China show “Nvidia is a big chip on the table for Trump” in trade war

Shares of Nvidia are down more than 6% in premarket trading.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia is down 6.5% premarket after warning it will take a $5.5 billion charge in its upcoming earnings report in light of the US government cracking down on sales of its H20 chip to China. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is likewise down 3.8% this morning.

This announcement comes following a host of chip restrictions on China enacted during the Biden administration and amid a trade war that’s become more narrowly focused on China, with the Trump administration slapping 145% tariffs on its imports and China putting a 125% tariff on US imports in response.

“The Trump Administration knows there is one chip and company fueling the AI Revolution and it’s Nvidia... and put a ‘Do Not Enter’ sign in front of China for Nvidia and Jensen with this restriction,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote. “Nvidia is a big chip on the table for Trump in our view.”

Sales to China (based on the customer’s billing location) have been waning as a share of the company’s total revenues, to 13% in 2024 from 17% in 2023. Per Reuters, citing sources familiar, Nvidia had secured $18 billion in H20 orders since the start of the year, or a little less than 9% of expected revenues for its current fiscal year.

Nvidia revenue share chart
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But chip smuggling and disguising the final destination of Nvidia’s high-power chips have become an international concern, particularly following the emergence of DeepSeek. That’s led to investigations from the FBI, the White House, and the authorities in Singapore. From 2023 to 2024, Singapore’s share of sales increased from 11% to 18%.

“The Street will take this news with clear nervousness, worried these are the first shots fired in the tech battle between the US and China and Beijing/Xi are not just going to take this news and walk away,” Ives added.

Worries about additional export curbs have clearly been on management’s radar.

“Given the increasing strategic importance of AI and rising geopolitical tensions, the US government has changed and may again change the export control rules at any time and further subject a wider range of our products to export restrictions and licensing requirements, negatively impacting our business and financial results,” per the company’s annual report released in February. “In the event of such change, we may be unable to sell our inventory of such products and may be unable to develop replacement products not subject to the licensing requirements, effectively excluding us from all or part of the China market.”

Kind of seems like there are two bumpy paths for chip companies at the moment: if you make high-powered products outside the US that China wants, the US doesn’t want you to sell those to them. And if your fabs are in the US, you’re facing higher tariffs denting demand for anything China does want.

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Luke Kawa, Toby Bochan
3/27/26
Stocks tumble with Nasdaq 100 posting largest weekly loss since April tariff sell-off

Fridays have been the worst day for the S&P 500 since the war began.

Growling Polar bear
markets
Luke Kawa

Peloton spikes after Eric Jackson says he’s long the stock at $4

Peloton jumped to session highs to trade up more than 7% after EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson said he was long the fitness company at $4.

Jackson has a big following in the retail community after serving as the architect of the parabolic rally in online real estate company Opendoor Technologies from July through September.

His tweet at 11:56 a.m. ET coincided with a spike in the share price as well as volumes traded (which may well imply that algos are geared to buy any stock he comments favorably on). Shares of other companies he’s announced a bullish view on since the Opendoor episode have also seen a massive announcement effect, including Better Home & Finance in September and Nextdoor in December.

All three of those stocks are currently down 50% or more from their 52-week highs.

In a thread on X, Jackson indicated that Peloton screens as very cheap based on how much free cash flow it generates, and he sees recent insider purchases as an important vote of confidence in the company from its management team. In an updated tweet, he noted that what he previously thought were insider purchases were actually options exercises, but said that this had no impact on his outlook.

markets
Matt Phillips

Sandisk bounces off 50-day moving average amid reprieve for memory stocks

Sandisk shares bounced off their 50-day moving average Friday, ending a multiday bloodbath for the stock that sent it down as much as 15% from where it closed last week.

The worst of the slump came as Google Research disclosed details this week of its TurboQuant AI algorithm, which Google said could allow AI language models to operate more efficiently, cutting demand for memory storage at AI data centers.

Sandisk tumbled in response, along with other AI memory trade stocks such as Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, which have been some of the market’s top performers this year.

Friday’s reprieve comes as analysts have emphasized the so-called Jevons Paradox implications of the TurboQuant news.

That is, if the Google algorithm lowers the amount of memory required for AI operations, it could make data centers more affordable and cheaper to use, resulting in more investment and thus more sales of memory products over time.

“In this scenario, lower memory requirements could then be offset by higher overall AI adoption and ultimately support inference-led storage demand rather than weaken it,” Citi analysts wrote in a note published Thursday after meeting with Sandisk executives. “This is counter to the initial market reaction, which was instead focused on the short-term view that more efficient AI models would simply reduce memory demand.”

markets
Matt Phillips

Trump’s Hormuz deadline delay fails to soothe markets amid signs of US and Iranian escalation

There’s little sign of relief in the markets from President Trump’s announcement yesterday of a 10-day delay of the deadline he imposed on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices are climbing and stocks are once again slumping, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 small-cap index all in the red early Friday.

Consumer discretionary stocks sank. Cruise lines Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival — which cut its profit outlook on climbing fuel costs as part of earnings Friday — are falling. Other bellwethers of discretionary consumer spending that are less oil-exposed, like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Starbucks, are sinking.

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

The energy trade, of course, keyed off the climb in crude oil prices, with benchmark US West Texas Intermediate rising to roughly $98 a barrel, despite Trump’s assurances as part of his deadline delay on Thursday that talks to end the war “are going very well.”

Those comments were largely brushed aside by the markets, a starkly different reaction from the president’s previous delay of the same deadline on Monday. That announcement generated a massive relief rally in crude oil prices and stocks on the hopes that substantive negotiations would begin shortly, or already had.

But Iran’s rejection of an initial US peace plan on Thursday, along with reports that the administration is considering sending another 10,000 US troops to the region and that Chinese ships trying to transit the Hormuz choke point had turned back, seemed to undercut that message.

“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” market analyst Jim Bianco wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Friday. “Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”

President Trump extends Strait of Hormuz opening deadline to April 6

Trump delays Strait of Hormuz deadline as Wall Street has biggest loss of war

Consumer discretionary stocks sank. Cruise lines Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival — which cut its profit outlook on climbing fuel costs as part of earnings Friday — are falling. Other bellwethers of discretionary consumer spending that are less oil-exposed, like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Starbucks, are sinking.

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

The energy trade, of course, keyed off the climb in crude oil prices, with benchmark US West Texas Intermediate rising to roughly $98 a barrel, despite Trump’s assurances as part of his deadline delay on Thursday that talks to end the war “are going very well.”

Those comments were largely brushed aside by the markets, a starkly different reaction from the president’s previous delay of the same deadline on Monday. That announcement generated a massive relief rally in crude oil prices and stocks on the hopes that substantive negotiations would begin shortly, or already had.

But Iran’s rejection of an initial US peace plan on Thursday, along with reports that the administration is considering sending another 10,000 US troops to the region and that Chinese ships trying to transit the Hormuz choke point had turned back, seemed to undercut that message.

“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” market analyst Jim Bianco wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Friday. “Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”

markets
Luke Kawa

Meta’s energy deal with Entergy boosts AI-linked utilities stocks

Shares of Entergy are soaring on Friday after Meta agreed to fund the creation of seven natural gas-fired power plants to secure energy for its mammoth Hyperion data center project in Louisiana.

The news is also boosting other AI-linked utilities plays, with Constellation Energy, Vistra, and NRG also trading well to the upside on Friday.

In a press release, Entergy said the deal was “structured to ensure Meta pays its full cost of service.” Electricity prices have become a hot-button political issue, with President Trump pushing tech giants to “pay their own way” on the costs associated with fueling data centers in a bid to avoid having households shoulder any of this burden.

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