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NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Delivers Keynote At Developers Conference
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, metaphorically tangled up in export curbs (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Fresh semiconductor export curbs on China show “Nvidia is a big chip on the table for Trump” in trade war

Shares of Nvidia are down more than 6% in premarket trading.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia is down 6.5% premarket after warning it will take a $5.5 billion charge in its upcoming earnings report in light of the US government cracking down on sales of its H20 chip to China. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is likewise down 3.8% this morning.

This announcement comes following a host of chip restrictions on China enacted during the Biden administration and amid a trade war that’s become more narrowly focused on China, with the Trump administration slapping 145% tariffs on its imports and China putting a 125% tariff on US imports in response.

“The Trump Administration knows there is one chip and company fueling the AI Revolution and it’s Nvidia... and put a ‘Do Not Enter’ sign in front of China for Nvidia and Jensen with this restriction,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote. “Nvidia is a big chip on the table for Trump in our view.”

Sales to China (based on the customer’s billing location) have been waning as a share of the company’s total revenues, to 13% in 2024 from 17% in 2023. Per Reuters, citing sources familiar, Nvidia had secured $18 billion in H20 orders since the start of the year, or a little less than 9% of expected revenues for its current fiscal year.

Nvidia revenue share chart
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But chip smuggling and disguising the final destination of Nvidia’s high-power chips have become an international concern, particularly following the emergence of DeepSeek. That’s led to investigations from the FBI, the White House, and the authorities in Singapore. From 2023 to 2024, Singapore’s share of sales increased from 11% to 18%.

“The Street will take this news with clear nervousness, worried these are the first shots fired in the tech battle between the US and China and Beijing/Xi are not just going to take this news and walk away,” Ives added.

Worries about additional export curbs have clearly been on management’s radar.

“Given the increasing strategic importance of AI and rising geopolitical tensions, the US government has changed and may again change the export control rules at any time and further subject a wider range of our products to export restrictions and licensing requirements, negatively impacting our business and financial results,” per the company’s annual report released in February. “In the event of such change, we may be unable to sell our inventory of such products and may be unable to develop replacement products not subject to the licensing requirements, effectively excluding us from all or part of the China market.”

Kind of seems like there are two bumpy paths for chip companies at the moment: if you make high-powered products outside the US that China wants, the US doesn’t want you to sell those to them. And if your fabs are in the US, you’re facing higher tariffs denting demand for anything China does want.

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Lightwave Logic drops following Q1 earnings

Lightwave Logic released its Q1 earnings report Wednesday postmarket. The company reported increasing shortfalls as the photonics company continues to scale. Investors reacted by pushing the stock slightly down after-hours.

Here are the numbers: 

  • Revenue of $29,000, 27% growing year-over-year.

  • Net loss of $6.3 million, widening 34% year-over-year.

The material photonics company, which designs and provides polymers to speed the flow of information from chip to chip, hit a four-year high this week and has risen nearly 400% since January. Daily options volumes on the stock hit a record high ahead of this release.

The stock has been boosted by an explosion of AI data center demand and interest in the growing industry of photonic integrated circuits for data center connectivity.

On their afternoon earnings call, Lightwave Logic CEO Yves LeMaitre reiterated that he believes the company is "positioned to help address some of the most important challenges facing AI infrastructure over the coming decade."

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USA Rare Earth gains after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results

USA Rare Earth is rising in postmarket trading after releasing better-than-expected Q1 results.

Key numbers:

  • Revenue of $5.67 million (compared to analyst estimates of $4.22 million).

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.12 (estimate: a $0.14 loss).

Management aims to achieve 3,000 metric tons per annum of run rate for metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end, along with 600 MTPA of run rate for magnet manufacturing capacity.

The results come during a period of unease in the global rare earth market. China previously moved to drastically curb critical mineral access in October, adding five new elements to its export controls and freezing supplies to semiconductor manufacturers. These materials may be on the agenda during discussions between US and Chinese leadership this week.

In response, the US has scrambled to build domestic production buffers. In January 2026, USA Rare Earth secured a landmark $1.6 billion government-backed package from the Department of Commerce, which included a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS and Science Act and $277 million in direct incentives in exchange for a 10% federal equity stake.

The company also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil. The $2.8 billion acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

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Cisco surges on Q3 earnings beat and better-than-expected Q4 outlook

Cisco rose double digits after beating Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and giving optimistic projections due to increasing demand from the AI industry.

Shares were 13% higher in after-hours trading.

The tech company reported: 

  • Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $15.6 billion).

  • Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 (estimate: $1.04).

  • Q4 revenue guidance between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion (estimate: $15.8 billion).

  • Q4 adjusted earnings guidance of $1.16 to $1.18 (estimate: $1.07).

Management upped its outlook for expected orders from hyperscalers this fiscal year to $9 billion from $5 billion.

Shares in the company have climbed more than 60% over the past calendar year and traded at record highs this week — surpassing $100 on Wednesday afternoon — fully riding the AI infrastructure wave. All these data centers need Cisco’s networking equipment as well as more from the likes of Arista Networks and HP Enterprise, both of which are being boosted postmarket from these results.

Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco, said:

Cisco is well positioned as the critical infrastructure for the AI era, building on our technology leadership and customer trust, while innovating at the speed and scale that our dynamic world demands.

While demand for Cisco’s products has been climbing, the price of memory also remains elevated — which can create tension between booming sales and pressure on profitability.

Looking toward the full year, the company updated its outlook to expect revenue ranging between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $61.1 billion.

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