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What you need to know about futures’ past before adding them to your present

Everything you need to know about the basis and basics of futures if you’re considering adding the derivatives to your trading arsenal.

Toby Bochan

Welcome to Sherwood’s deep dive into futures markets, presented in partnership with CME Logo


To talk about the financial vehicles known as futures, we need to step back into the past: the distant past of Japan, where the instruments were invented in the 17th century.

The days of futures’ past

It all started with rice. The rice trade — which is also behind the candlesticks in a stock chart — fostered the first futures contracts. Rice was the original way samurai were paid and taxes were levied, and early futures contracts allowed farmers and their buyers to lock in the price for a delivery of rice at a set, future date, allowing the producers to have enough capital to carry them through the harvest season, the samurai to have a stable income, and wholesalers to secure a reliable price that wouldn’t be affected by a bad harvest.

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While the contracts aimed to reduce risks for the key parties, that also presented an opportunity for those who were willing to speculate on the underlying asset’s price. Soon, futures contracts themselves were bought and sold, and the contracts expanded to other commodities and beyond.

The modern futures contract

While much has changed — traders don’t necessarily take physical delivery of the goods underlying a futures contract these days — some things have carried on: futures contracts still have a set date that obligates the parties to buy or sell the underlying asset at a predetermined price, but what that asset might be has broadened since the 17th century.

The first futures market in the US opened in Chicago in 1848, which America’s biggest futures marketplace, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), still calls home. 

Underlying assets that underpin modern futures contracts include:

  • Commodities, such as coffee, soybeans, lumber, and corn

  • Natural gas and crude oil

  • Equities and stock indexes, like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

  • Fiat currencies, such as the euro or the yen

  • Cryptocurrencies

  • Metals, like gold, silver, and copper

  • Interest rates

For those who are familiar with trading options, one key difference is that while options are contracts with set dates, they give each side only the “option” to buy or sell at the predetermined price, while futures contracts are an obligation. Let’s dive into the details of what makes up such a contract in modern markets and what you need to know about each aspect. 

The five specifications of futures contracts

Futures contracts have five main elements you’ll want to grasp before you place your first order. Because America is the land of golden corn fields, we’ll come back to that as our example in each specification.

  • Contract size: the standard amount of an asset in each contract, which varies from asset to asset. For example, one crude oil contract is always 1,000 barrels, while a standard corn futures contract stands for 5,000 bushels.

  • Contract value: commonly also called “notional value,” this equals the contract size times the current price of the asset. So if corn is trading at $4 a bushel, the notional value of one corn futures contract is $20,000.

  • Tick size: a “tick” is the minimum amount a particular futures contract can fluctuate. This can be in dollars, cents, or even a fraction of a cent, as is the case with corn. The smallest amount a corn contract can fluctuate is by a quarter cent a bushel, or $0.0025. Multiply that by the 5,000 bushels in a corn contract and it equals $12.50, which is the tick value per corn contract.

  • Trading hours: one of the most attractive things about futures to many traders is that futures markets’ expanded hours allows them to act on news or other aftermarket information when the stock market is closed. But they are not 24/7. 

    • Equities-based futures markets are typically open from Sunday evening at 5 p.m. CT (remember, many major markets are based in Chicago) until Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. CT, and have a daily 60-minute break. 

    • Agricultural futures (like corn) are a bit different. They trade from Sunday through Friday, 7 p.m. to 7:45 a.m., and Monday through Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 1:20 p.m. CT. As you can see, trading corn is a bit trickier time-wise, and if you assume it’s the same as equities futures markets, you could miss an opportunity that may make your corn futures strategy pop.

  • Delivery: at the end date of a futures contract, it is either financially settled or physically delivered. Obviously, most traders aren’t actually looking to get 5,000 bushels of corn, but if you’ve ever heard the legend of the McDonald’s McRib being connected to low hog prices, you can understand how real-life restaurant chains would want to buy a lot of lean hog futures contracts when the price was low and lock in that meat deal. The terms of the delivery will be specified in the contract, and luckily for traders, most brokerages won’t allow everyday investors to take delivery in physical form so you won’t end up needing to buy a silo to store that corn.

How to decode a futures listing

Futures contracts look a little different from other things you might trade. On most platforms, futures contracts will be distinguished by a forward slash to differentiate them from similarly named equities. The listings will also end with a letter that indicates the month the contract will expire. Those month codes aren’t intuitive, with January being indicated by F and August by… Q? Here’s the full list for reference.

This is a good place to pause before we dive into the next part, which will explore why futures are useful for modern markets and active traders as well as explain leverage, margin requirements, and the risks involved.

Until then, test your knowledge with our Futures Quiz.

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Gold tumbles as market sees Fed shifting toward inflation fighting

Gold and gold miners tumbled Thursday, as the rolling Iran war energy crisis revived worries about inflation and pushed the market to take additional rate cuts this year off the table.

Gold (SPDR Gold Shares ETF) futures dropped roughly 6% shortly after 12 pm ET, hammering share prices for miners Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan. Silver (iShares Silver Trust) futures were down nearly 9%

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3%, after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by AAA hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports such as this week’s Producer Price Index and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday — reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for Fed Funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation-fighting and away from rate-cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and, or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

The decline in precious metals came alongside another sharp rise in energy prices. US benchmark crude oil (United States Oil Fund LP) and natural gas prices both jumped more than 3%, after major Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure. US retail gasoline prices tracked by AAA hit $3.884, up 33% from the end of last month, when a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran ignited hostilities.

Normally, gold prices are seen as a hedge on inflation, which might suggest that they should rise alongside expectations for persistent price increases.

But the speed of the Iran war energy shock — which will add to inflationary pressures already visible in recent economic reports such as this week’s Producer Price Index and could become a political problem for the Trump administration — has nudged traders to change their their views on whether the Federal Reserve would be able to deliver rate cuts widely expected just a few weeks ago.

Yields on shorter-maturity US Treasury notes shot higher Thursday — reflecting expectations for tighter monetary policy. And prices in the market for Fed Funds futures suggest traders no longer see the US central bank cutting interest rates this year at all. (Early this month, market pricing implied expectations for two more cuts this year.)

On Thursday yields fell on longer-term US government securities, such as the US 30-year bond. That suggests the market thinks a Fed shift toward inflation-fighting and away from rate-cutting would likely result in some decline in growth and, or inflation, helping to explain the drop in precious metals prices, as there would be less of a need for inflation hedges in such a scenario.

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Novo says FDA has approved high-dose Wegovy shot

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s high-dose Wegovy shot, the company announced on Thursday.

Wegovy HD, a once-weekly 7.2-milligram injection, helped patients lose 20.7% of their body weight after 72 weeks, putting it in line with Eli Lilly’s competitor drug, Zepbound. By comparison, Wegovy typically has a maximum dose of 2.4 milligrams, which resulted in 15% weight reduction over 68 weeks in trials.

Wegovy HD was the first drug to be approved through the FDA’s new priority voucher system. This comes as Novo, despite being early to the GLP-1 boom, has been outpaced in sales by Lilly. The company released a pill version of Wegovy in January, which has shown strong early uptake, though new competitor products are set to debut this year and next.

The stock is down about 1.6% for the day, but was down nearly 3% before the announcement.

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Intuit, Workday jump amid Iran war fueling flight-to-software trade

Cash flow positive software companies — the same ones that were seen as doomed to obsolescence by AI a few weeks back — jumped Thursday, with Oracle, Workday, Intuit, and Salesforce staying above water despite the general downtrend in the big indexes.

Some of the uptick is likely linked to the better-than-expected weekly jobless claims numbers that came in early today, which eased concerns about a recession brought on by the most recent monthly employment report. (Payroll-processing stocks like Paycom Software, Paychex, and Automatic Data Processing are clearly breathing a sign of relief.)

And given that these software companies often have a “seat-based” revenue model, the fact that human butts are not rapidly being replaced by AI-enhanced robot keisters gives them a lift as well.

Also as we’ve said before, amid the chaos and uncertainty of the Iran war, the steady cash flows and predictable short-term outlook of software-as-a-service stocks have a definite appeal.

Even if you think that over the long term AI will end up slaughtering these cash cows, that’s a problem for a day perhaps three to five years in the future, whereas the Iran war is a growing risk investors increasingly can’t ignore today.

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Rocket Lab slips with other momentum stocks despite DOD hypersonic test deal, new analyst “buy” call

Rocket Lab slipped early Thursday along with other momentum stocks, despite announcing a new $190 million deal for 20 tests of hypersonic rockets for the Department of Defense and picking up a new bullish analyst call.

The commercial space launch company called the deal to launch 20 hypersonic test flights over a four-year period in collaboration with Kratos Defense its “single largest launch agreement yet.”

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

Separately, analysts at brokerage firm Clear Street initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a “buy” rating and an $88 price target — essentially the same as Wall Street’s $88.38 consensus, according to FactSet. That implies upside of about 27% for the stock compared to yesterday’s close. Clear Street analysts wrote:

“Despite shares rising 289% (vs. 26% for the NASDAQ) over the past year, we see further upside. Our $88 target is based on 20x 2030E EV/Sales, in line with the ~30x NTM EV/Revenue average over the past year when discounted to present value. We anchor on 2030E to capture the payoff from ~16 annual Neutron launches following a multi-year investment cycle. Our outlook incorporates estimated dilution and proceeds from the $1B equity distribution agreement announced on 3/17/2026.”

The favorable headlines for Rocket Lab weren’t enough to help the shares overcome a general downdraft for high-beta momentum stocks such as itself. They are getting hammered early on the deteriorating situation in the Mideast war.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.