Goldman hikes year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce as private investors and central banks compete for the shiny stuff

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from the previous $4,900 target, citing strong demand from private sector investors using gold as a hedge against global policy risks, according to a note released late Tuesday.

The revised price target reflects a 17% increase from January’s month-to-date average price, with continued central bank buying as the biggest driver of the forecast (accounting for 14 percentage points of the expected appreciation), while ETF inflows add another 3 pp — supported by an assumed Fed rate cut this year.

Central banks have been on a gold-buying spree since 2022, after the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves, helping push prices up 15% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. But Goldman analysts noted that the rally accelerated in 2025 as competition between central banks and private investors for the limited bullion intensified — driving prices up another 67% last year, with recent tensions over Greenland only adding to the momentum.

That private sector demand now extends well beyond ETF inflows. Goldman said buying is increasingly coming from a new class of investors seeking protection against macro policy risk and currency “debasement,” including purchases from high-net-worth families and call option buying — flows that are “hard to track” but have become a “significant incremental source of demand.”

Goldman assumed these macro-related “sticky” hedges will persist through 2026 — unlike those tied to the 2024 US election, which unwound quickly once the outcome was clear.