Goldman lifts S&P 500 target on China tariff truce
The blue chips are now less than 5% from retaking all-time highs.
Goldman Sachs analysts are out with a new price target for the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF), citing better-than-expected Q1 earnings results, reacceleration of large-cap tech shares (Invesco QQQ Trust), slightly reduced uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic growth, and — most importantly — dour sentiment among investors and relatively light positioning.
The team led by Goldman’s David Kostin raised its 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,500 from 6,200, implying a roughly 10% gain from current prices. That’s slightly less bullish than the Wall Street consensus, which is calling for a gain of about 11% to 6,539.
They wrote:
“Still-light equity investor positioning is the strongest argument for continued near-term market upside. Last Friday, our US Equity Sentiment Indicator registered -1.5 standard deviations, a level that typically indicates above-average S&P 500 returns during the subsequent 2-8 weeks. Hedge fund net leverage and systematic fund equity exposures still register particularly low levels relative to recent history.”
Separately, Goldman analysts also spotlighted the rebound of AI-related stocks as being a key to further upside momentum, particularly what they call “Phase 3” AI shares, which are seeing actual increases to sales right now as a result of the technology, a group that includes Palantir, Amazon, Meta, and Spotify, among others.
