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“The best trading period” for US stocks starts today, says Goldman

The bank’s tactical-trading specialist thinks markets will rip higher from now through year-end.

10/28/24 11:39AM

“Today starts the best trading period of Q4 for US equities with data going back to 1928,” writes Scott Rubner, managing director for global markets at Goldman Sachs.

Since 1928, the median return from now through year-end is 5.2% for the S&P 500. Since 1985, the Nasdaq 100 has tended to be up double-digits over the same stretch.

S&P 500 seasonals
Source: Goldman Sachs
Nasdaq seasonals
Source: Goldman Sachs

Conventional wisdom on Wall Street, per Rubner, is that stocks will retreat after next Tuesday’s election, but he’s more optimistic.

“I think that the US election will be a clearing event for risk assets, and re-risking may happen quickly (and out of favor sectors and themes that are under-owned),” he writes.

Starting now, activity of the bigger sellers of equities (mutual and pension funds) will die down, while a huge buyer — companies repurchasing their own shares — will begin to return in earnest as the heavy week of earnings announcements plays out.

Rubner previously flagged that Corporate America has already authorized a record $1 trillion in share buybacks so far in 2024, and November tends to be the busiest month for executing these repurchases.

Generally, there’s a lot of scope for money to rotate out of cash into stocks, he adds.

US fund flows since 2019
Source: Goldman Sachs

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Rocket lab soars to new record close amid rally for retail faves

Rocket Lab ripped by roughly 10% Friday to close at a new all-time high, riding an upturn of retail enthusiasm for a coterie of tech-themed favorites, even as the broader market was more or less flat on the day.

Goldman Sachs’ basket of “retail favorites” — its heaviest weights are Reddit, AppLovin, and Tempus AI — was the second-biggest gainer among the company’s flagship US equity baskets on Friday, rising about 1.6%. The S&P was almost dead flat.

It’s not Rocket Lab’s first retail rodeo, as the money-losing company has more than doubled this year and is up nearly 700% over the last 12 months.

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Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ended August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch last year, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks. 

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up about 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per-capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant signed a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down about 52% year to date.

markets

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’sbig, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

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