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Mangling of the Magnificent

Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm on Nvidia and the Magnificent 7

Nasdaq 100 rallies are to be sold, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Luke Kawa

Ever since DeepSeek roiled markets, the AI trade vibes have oscillated between “it’s so over” and “we’re so back.”

Put Goldman Sachs firmly in the former camp amid another dreadful session in which Nvidia is down as much as 7%.

In a flurry of notes released late last week and over the weekend, strategists at the bank basically said that the party’s over for the megacap US tech trade. To sum up their case:

  • When a stock fails to respond to good news, that’s bad news.

  • The earnings growth that made the Magnificent 7 so magnificent isn’t as magnificent any more.

  • Hedge funds are dumping the cohort and other AI-linked positions.

  • Popular stocks could see a lot more of a valuation reset lower.

The strategists, in their own words:

Paolo Schiavone:

The NVDA print was a clearing event — the reality is that from here the AI theme is for sale. In AI, investors are worried about 2026 growth not 25. Nasdaq 100 rallies will be used as liquidity events.”

Tony Pasquariello:

We all knew it was coming, but the immense earning premium that you had earned in US mega cap tech vs everything else is narrowing. DeepSeek triggered a shift in the flow [of] capital away from the US plays. In a few ways, NVDA earnings are an illustration of what’s going on here: they didn’t pull a hamstring as the cyclical impulse to spend on compute is still clearly intact, but price action told a certain story (i.e. -$320 billion of market cap in one day). Bigger picture, the stock has been range bound for the past eight months — coming off a 24,000% cumulative return in the prior ten years, if nothing else that’s anti-climactic.”

John Flood:

February’s notional de-grossing in US TMT [technology, media, and telecom] is tracking to be the second largest on our record (behind January 2021 amid the meme stocks rally). Net exposure to Mag7 names has continued to fall and is now at the lowest level since April 2023, and aggregate long-short ratio across our US TMT AI basket constituents remains well below the highs seen around the middle of last year.”

Goldman PB
Source: Goldman Sachs

Mark Wilson:

To my starting comment about price action sometimes revealing more than fundamentals — these 3 head check’ charts of the largest index constituents give a reasonable frame of reference for price possibilities from here: Nvidia, Apple & Amazon’s EV to 12-month trailing sales multiple: it’s not a uniform observation (i.e. AMZN has no dramatically re-rated), but its not unreasonable to suggest some very large stocks may consolidate after the moves they’ve had, in price & in multiple re-rating.”

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Lightwave Logic drops following Q1 earnings

Lightwave Logic released its Q1 earnings report Wednesday postmarket. The company reported increasing shortfalls as the photonics company continues to scale. Investors reacted by pushing the stock slightly down after-hours.

Here are the numbers: 

  • Revenue of $29,000, 27% growing year-over-year.

  • Net loss of $6.3 million, widening 34% year-over-year.

The material photonics company, which designs and provides polymers to speed the flow of information from chip to chip, hit a four-year high this week and has risen nearly 400% since January. Daily options volumes on the stock hit a record high ahead of this release.

The stock has been boosted by an explosion of AI data center demand and interest in the growing industry of photonic integrated circuits for data center connectivity.

On their afternoon earnings call, Lightwave Logic CEO Yves LeMaitre reiterated that he believes the company is "positioned to help address some of the most important challenges facing AI infrastructure over the coming decade."

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USA Rare Earth gains after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results

USA Rare Earth is rising in postmarket trading after releasing better-than-expected Q1 results.

Key numbers:

  • Revenue of $5.67 million (compared to analyst estimates of $4.22 million).

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.12 (estimate: a $0.14 loss).

Management aims to achieve 3,000 metric tons per annum of run rate for metal-making and alloy capacity by year-end, along with 600 MTPA of run rate for magnet manufacturing capacity.

The results come during a period of unease in the global rare earth market. China previously moved to drastically curb critical mineral access in October, adding five new elements to its export controls and freezing supplies to semiconductor manufacturers. These materials may be on the agenda during discussions between US and Chinese leadership this week.

In response, the US has scrambled to build domestic production buffers. In January 2026, USA Rare Earth secured a landmark $1.6 billion government-backed package from the Department of Commerce, which included a $1.3 billion senior secured loan under the CHIPS and Science Act and $277 million in direct incentives in exchange for a 10% federal equity stake.

The company also announced a definitive agreement to acquire Serra Verde Group, owner of the Pela Ema rare earth mine and processing plant in Goiás, Brazil. The $2.8 billion acquisition is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

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Cisco surges on Q3 earnings beat and better-than-expected Q4 outlook

Cisco rose double digits after beating Q3 revenue and earnings estimates and giving optimistic projections due to increasing demand from the AI industry.

Shares were 13% higher in after-hours trading.

The tech company reported: 

  • Q3 revenue of $15.8 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $15.6 billion).

  • Q3 adjusted earnings per share of $1.06 (estimate: $1.04).

  • Q4 revenue guidance between $16.7 billion and $16.9 billion (estimate: $15.8 billion).

  • Q4 adjusted earnings guidance of $1.16 to $1.18 (estimate: $1.07).

Management upped its outlook for expected orders from hyperscalers this fiscal year to $9 billion from $5 billion.

Shares in the company have climbed more than 60% over the past calendar year and traded at record highs this week — surpassing $100 on Wednesday afternoon — fully riding the AI infrastructure wave. All these data centers need Cisco’s networking equipment as well as more from the likes of Arista Networks and HP Enterprise, both of which are being boosted postmarket from these results.

Chuck Robbins, chair and CEO of Cisco, said:

Cisco is well positioned as the critical infrastructure for the AI era, building on our technology leadership and customer trust, while innovating at the speed and scale that our dynamic world demands.

While demand for Cisco’s products has been climbing, the price of memory also remains elevated — which can create tension between booming sales and pressure on profitability.

Looking toward the full year, the company updated its outlook to expect revenue ranging between $62.8 billion and $63.0 billion, ahead of analysts’ estimates of $61.1 billion.

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