Markets
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Rani Molla

Google soars after analysts charmed by developer conference

Wall Street analysts were generally impressed with Google’s two-hour developer conference yesterday, in which execs crammed its Gemini AI into basically everything.

Today the stock is up more than 5%. Here are some comments from a few of their notes:

JPMorgan: “We come away from Google I/O incrementally positive as we believe Google is leading in many areas of AI with Gemini at the top of foundational model leaderboards, AI Mode bringing Gemini into Search and incorporating agentic capabilities from Astra, Mariner, & Deep Research, and Gemini becoming widely available across numerous platforms (iOS & Android) & device types (smartphones, wearables, & auto). Importantly, Google’s product innovation is accelerating — the company is shipping faster than ever — and AI Mode in Search is rolling out to US users just 1 year after AI Overviews were introduced. We believe Google’s ‘total reimagining of search’ is taking shape as AI Mode integrates what have been somewhat disparate AI products.”

Morgan Stanley: “I/O showed how GOOGL intends to make search more AI-enabled, personalized, and agentic in ’25. Next gen (subscription, diffusion and devices) tools are improving too but for now we are most optimistic on the free pipeline of products to come.”

Bank of America: “We think the catch-up phase for Google’s LLM capabilities is coming to an end... We see this as Google’s ‘Reels moment,’ taking on a growing and well-funded competitor in OpenAI by integrating a directly competitive product [AI Mode].”

Evercore ISI: “We don’t believe there will be only one AI winner, but we think Google has successfully proven that it will remain a leader in the AI race.”

Baird: “It’s a tough and competitive landscape, but Google’s global scale, infrastructure, and suite of apps are meaningful competitive advantages.”

Rosenblatt Securities: “While impressive, the event was also a reminder that Google is stretching to parry huge strides by rivals that were nowhere just a couple of years ago.”

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Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa
9/19/25
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 end the week with fresh record closing highs

Another day, another record high for US stocks.

Charging Bull
markets
Luke Kawa

We’re about to enter the historically worst week of the year for US stocks

The September scaries — the tendency for US stocks to perform poorly in the ninth month of the year — have seemingly been vanquished this year. So far.

However, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, was very early in highlighting a peculiar calendar quirk that implies some potential downside risk for next week.

Monday marks the start of the 39th trading week of the year. That’s historically been the worst week for the S&P 500, based on data going back to 1990, and the week that’s seen the highest incidence of 1% drops for the benchmark US stock index.

“Meanwhile, the week after next is the one where stocks are most likely to have a moment,” he wrote on September 11 (last Thursday). “There is something special about the week after September expiry and this has been true for basically ever. Could be a bit of the old fooled by randomness, but anyway.”

Median return of S&P 500 by week
Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets
% of time S&P 500 sees weekly drop of 1% or more
Source: Brent Donnelly, Spectra Markets

Donnelly also separately flagged, though, that seasonality has not been that useful of a trading tool this year:

“2025 has not been good for the seasonality believers. My view is that seasonality functions mostly because of asymmetry of flows and human behavior around specific times of the year and political and macro shocks are bigger than those flows. So if you have a series of randomly-timed policy shocks month after month, that will blow the flows and the behavioral seasonality out of the water. That’s my explanation for why seasonality has not worked this year. But I could be wrong.”

markets
Luke Kawa

Retail traders’ favorite stocks are on a record winning streak

Relatively speculative small-cap stocks, many of which are beloved by retail traders, are basking in the glow of the renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts.

A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks widely held by the retail community is going straight up and to the right, poised for a record 10th straight day of gains. It’s up 13% over this stretch.

Fed rate cuts provide a more supportive financing environment for smaller firms, and as such, a lower risk of default.

Quantum computing companies Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, which are both constituents in the aforementioned basket, are up big on Friday on little news. However, there is one report from Cyberscoop that the US government “is considering a broader set of actions related to quantum computing, both to improve the nation’s capacity to defend against future quantum-enabled hacks,” which may be spurring some buying activity.

On Thursday, Rigetti and IonQ announced fresh initiatives with the government.

Also enjoying big gains are classic meme stocks AMC Networks and SoundHound AI, both of which are not in Goldman’s group but also often receive a ton of retail attention.

For AMC at least, there’s a more fundamental catalyst at play: the theater chain announced that it’ll be hosting release parties for the upcoming Taylor Swift album, “The Life of a Showgirl.”

markets
Nia Warfield

FedEx pops after delivering Q1 earnings beat and receiving price target boost

FedEx shares rose Friday after the courier giant delivered better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $3.83 a share, topping Wall Street’s $3.61 call. Revenue hit $22.2 billion, also ahead of forecasts, thanks to strong US delivery volumes, even as tariff pressures weighed on its international business.

Looking ahead, FedEx gave a full-year outlook calling for 4% to 6% sales growth and adjusted EPS between $17.20 and $19. That stacks up against Street expectations of 3.3% sales growth and EPS of $18.34. The company also reiterated plans to spin off its freight arm by mid-2026.

The stock got a price target boost from TD Cowen, which inched its estimate up to $271 from $269 while keeping a “buy” rating.

Even with Friday’s pop, FedEx shares are still down about 17% this year.

markets
Luke Kawa

Micron’s record-setting winning streak ends with a thud

Gravity has come for Micron.

The memory chipmaking specialist has been on an unreal run, rising for a record 12 consecutive sessions before Friday’s plunge.

The stock had been buoyed by the continued drumbeat of positive news regarding the expansion of AI data centers, rising more than 40% during its streak of up days. Its winning streak had pushed shares above Wall Street analysts’ average price target.

The company reports earnings next week.

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