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“Magic: The Gathering” collectible cards (Getty Images)
Do you believe in Magic

Hasbro rises on strong Q2 earnings, raised full-year outlook

The toymaker’s Wizards of the Coast franchise has cast a winning spell even as overall sales slip.

Nia Warfield

Hasbro shares jumped as much as 5% in premarket trading before trimming some of those gains after the toymaker topped Q2 estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

Hasbro’s adjusted earnings of $1.30 per diluted share were well above Wall Street’s forecast of $0.78. Revenue hit $980.8 million, also easily beating the $880 million analysts expected. Both figures not only topped the consensus estimate — they topped every analyst’s estimate!

For the full year, Hasbro now expects mid-single-digit revenue growth, up from a prior forecast of “slightly up.” Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA is expected to land between $1.17 billion and $1.20 billion. It was previously forecast at $1.1 billion to $1.15 billion, and analysts were expecting $1.13 billion.

A huge driver of the strong quarter: Hasbro’s Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming segment, which accounted for over half of total sales during the quarter.

Fan favorite “Magic: The Gathering” saw revenue surge, fueled by its Final Fantasy set, which is now the biggest release in the franchise’s history. The fantasy tabletop card game became Hasbro’s first billion-dollar brand back in 2022.

“Wizards of the Coast had a standout quarter. ‘Magic: The Gathering’ continues to deliver, growing 23% year over year in the second quarter and up 32% year to date,” CEO Chris Cocks said during the company’s earnings call.

“This isn’t just a one-off moment. It’s a clear indication of the power of [the Magic’] community.”

Prior to the earnings move, Hasbro shares were up about 37% year to date.

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Chip stocks post record outperformance of software companies in never-before-seen divergence

One session in 2026 brings one thing we’ve never seen before in markets: a massive divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF absolutely trounced the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF today, with the former gaining 3.7% leaving while the latter dropped 2.9%.

The 6.6-percentage point gap is the biggest outperformance for SMH versus IGV on record, going back to December 2011.

Since these two are both parts of a broader technology whole, it’s rare to have one up a ton while the other gets shellacked. The rolling one-year correlation of daily returns for these two ETFs was about 0.8 heading into today.

There have been only three sessions (including today) where the chip stock ETF was up at least 1.5% while the software ETF was down 1.5% or more. We’ve never seen SMH gain 2% while IGV fell 2% before Friday’s session. And there’s been only one session where the reverse happened (November 11, 2024).

The opening trading day of 2026 was phenomenal for the AI picks and shovels trade, while very poor for their more downstream peers.

How and why did this happen? Who knows really, but this looks like the kind of thing where a couple major funds decide to keep their total AI exposure stable but lean into a hardware-over-software tilt when adjusting their positioning at the start of the year, which kicks off intraday momentum that forces everyone else along for the ride.

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AI downstream stocks tumble even as their picks and shovels peers soar

While the AI picks and shovels stocks are enjoying a strong start to 2026, the same can’t be said for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers.

The S&P 500’s biggest losers today include:

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