Markets
Open House At The Digital Realty Data Center (interxion)
Data servers (Photo By Alberto Ortega/Europa Press via Getty Images)
Short Report

Why Hindenburg Research is betting against AI stock market darling Super Micro

The short selling firm alleges accounting irregularities, questionable governance, and even sanctions evasion.

Luke Kawa

An AI stock market darling is the newest target of Hindenburg Research.

Super Micro Computer was down as much as 8.7% in early trading on Tuesday before paring about half of those losses by 10am ET after the short-selling firm released a report detailing why it’s betting against the stock.

Demand for SMCI’s severs has skyrocketed amid the AI boom, but Hindenburg says underneath that lies a company with a dodgy accounting history, questionable business ties, and even sanctions evasion.

It’s another question mark that threatens to upend what’s been largely an AI-dominated stock market rally in 2024, which faces a big test with Nvidia reporting earnings on Wednesday.

Heading into Tuesday’s session, Super Micro Computer was the third-best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, with its 98% gain trailing only Nvidia and Vistra. The bloom is already arguably off the rose, however: shares of the company had risen more than 300% in less than three months to start 2024.

The entire report is worth a read. But we’ve picked out some of the most striking claims made by Hindenburg below.

Potential accounting irregularities?

In 2018, Super Micro was temporarily delisted from Nasdaq for failing to file financial statements. By August 2020, the company was charged by the SEC for “widespread accounting violations,” mainly related to $200+ million in improperly recognized revenue and understated expenses, resulting in artificially elevated sales, earnings and profit margins…

Three senior employees who left in early 2018 amidst the accounting scandal were rehired, individually serving as (1) a member of the board of directors (2) a consultant serving close to the CEO (3) and a VP of business development.

Keeping it in the family?

Beyond fresh questions around its revenue accounting, we found that Super Micro’s relationships with both disclosed and undisclosed related parties serve as fertile ground for dubious accounting.

For example, disclosed related party suppliers Ablecom and Compuware, controlled by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang’s brothers, have been paid $983 million in the last 3 years. Ablecom is also partly owned by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang and his wife…

Super Micro has claimed its liquid cooling technology will “revolutionize the industry” and is its “competitive edge.” But at a recent industry conference, Super Micro featured related party Ablecom’s liquid cooling solutions, per an Ablecom engineer.

Ablecom has several patents for its liquid cooling technology. Despite this, Super Micro has never disclosed any related party involvement in its liquid cooling technology.

Behind enemy lines?

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. government imposed stringent restrictions and bans on exports to Russia of high-performance computers and components…

Exports of Super Micro’s high-tech components to Russia have spiked ~3x since the invasion of Ukraine, apparently violating U.S. export bans, according to our review of more than 45,000 import/export transactions.

At least 46 companies that handled Super Micro products to Russia since the invasion are now under OFAC sanctions or on U.S. government watchlists.

In addition,  the firm flagged perceived quality shortcomings that they say has caused the likes of Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon to turn away from Super Micro’s products.

Per exchange data, short interest as a percent of shares outstanding has jumped from below 6% in mid-April to above 15% by mid-August, with the bulk of that increase in bearish bets coming over the past month.

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

CrowdStrike beats on Q3 revenue and earnings

CrowdStrike eked out beats on both earnings and revenue for the third quarter, while also raising its full-year guidance.

The cybersecurity company reported earnings of $0.96 per share, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.94 per share.

The company saw $1.23 billion in sales for the quarter, up 22% year on year, beating analysts’ expectation of $1.21 billion in sales. The company reported a net loss of about $34 million.

Subscription revenue was $1.17 billion, up 21% year on year.

Shares were little changed in after-hours trading. The stock is up nearly 50% since the start of the year.

The company’s annual recurring revenue reached $4.92 billion as of October 31, up 23% year on year. The analyst consensus was $4.895 billion.

The company raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance for revenue to between $4.8 billion to $4.81 billion (previously $4.75 billion to $4.81 billion), and upped its outlook for adjusted earnings per share to a range of $3.70 to $3.72 (previously $3.60 to $3.72).

Burt Podbere, CrowdStrike’s CFO, wrote in the press release:

“We delivered outstanding third quarter results, exceeding expectations across all guided metrics. Total revenue growth accelerated to 22% year-over-year, and we delivered record cash flow from operations of $398 million and record Q3 free cash flow of $296 million. We are capitalizing on the AI-driven demand environment as customers consolidate on the Falcon platform, driving our pipeline to an all-time high.”

markets

Marvell Technology soars after CEO targets $10 billion in revenues next year


Marvell Technology initially fell in after-hours trading after the chip company posted Q3 results modestly ahead of estimates with Q4 guidance in line with analysts’ expectations, but turned those losses into massive gains thanks to positive commentary on next year’s sales outlook.

On the earnings call, CEO Matt Murphy said that sales could eclipse $10 billion in its upcoming fiscal year, while analysts had penciled in a forecast below $9.5 billion.

That solid anticipated pick-up in sales is being driven by Marvell’s custom chip division, where Murphy touted recent customer wins including an “emerging hyperscaler.”

“We expect our custom business, roughly a quarter of our overall data center revenue, to grow by at least 20% next year,” he said.

While custom chips sales have been a relatively lumpy line item for Marvell, Murphy doesn’t think that will be the case going forward, saying that there won’t be any more “air pockets.”

The Q3 results:

  • Net revenue: $2.075 billion (compared to estimates for $2.06 billion)

  • Adjusted earnings per share: $0.76 (estimate: $0.74)

For Q4, management offered guidance for net revenues to come in at $2.2 billion (plus or minus 5%) with adjusted EPS of $0.79 (plus or minus $0.05). That’s virtually bang in line with Wall Street’s call for $2.19 billion and $0.79, respectively.

Along with these results, Marvell announced plans to buy Celestial AI, a company that uses light to move data between chips, for at least $3.25 billion in cash and stock. The purchase price could go up by as much as $2.25 billion if Celestial’s cumulative revenues reach at least $2 billion by the end of Marvell’s fiscal 2029 (roughly speaking, calendar year 2028).

The chip stock has been on a solid run recently, thanks in large part to a wave of investor enthusiasm over custom chips spurred by the launch of Google’s Gemini 3. Marvell works with Amazon as a codesigning partner for its custom chips, including providing connectivity infrastructure for the Trainium3 model, which was publicly launched on Tuesday.

That being said, Marvell has been one of the worst chip stocks this year, down about 15% year to date ahead of these results.

markets

Morgan Stanley upgrades Tempus AI to “overweight”

Morgan Stanley analysts gave Tempus AI an “overweight” rating — essentially a “buy” — and a raised their price target to $85 from $80, writing in a note published late Monday that despite being “a relatively new player, the company has already established itself as one of the top providers of precision oncology testing.”

As part of their reasoning, analysts spotlighted faster-than-expected growth in Tempus’ hereditary cancer risk-testing business, which it acquired through the purchase of Ambry Genetics in a deal that closed earlier this year.

Morgan Stanley also suggested there could be upside in Tempus’ relatively small data and services unit, which sells de-identified patient data pulled from its testing archive for use in pharmaceutical drug trials and other applications.

Despite being consistently unprofitable since its IPO last year, Tempus has been winning over Wall Street analysts.

Of the 17 covering the stock, 10 have buy ratings — or their equivalent — on Tempus, up from six in June.

Tempus has seen its share price more than double this year.

Wall Street 2026 outlook and S&P 500 forecasts (binoculars)

Wall Street has great expectations for the next year in the stock market

Stock watchers are pretty bullish about the coming year — as they typically are — with eyes on the Fed and whether the AI boom will still have legs. BofA is a little skeptical.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.