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Lenah Mill by Toll Brothers in Aldie Virginia
(Benjamin C. Tankersley/Getty Images)
Margin of error

Homebuilders are missing out on the secret sauce fueling the stock market

Profit margins are expanding for the S&P 500, but not for homebuilders.

Luke Kawa

One of the best arguments for why US companies can sustain lofty valuations is high profit margins.

Simply, the companies that populate the S&P 500 are better than ever at efficiently turning sales into profits. Margin expansion is the US stock market’s secret sauce. And while most companies — in particular, mega-cap tech stocks — have it, homebuilders are one pocket of the market that doesn’t.

Case in point: Toll Brothers, which fell about 5% at the open on Tuesday after reporting quarterly results after the close on Monday.

Toll said its first-quarter adjusted home-sales gross margin would be 26.3%, a full percentage point below Wall Street’s estimate.

High interest rates continue to wreak havoc on the US housing market. Even the luxury homebuilder — whose customers are better positioned to grapple with high borrowing costs — has had to buy down mortgage rates to entice would-be buyers, along with other incentive programs.

That’s not a company-specific problem, but rather a broad industry issue: as the S&P 500’s expected profit margin in 12 months’ time has continued to climb, the Dow Jones US Select Home Builders Index has seen its presumptive profitability roll over.

During a conference call, Toll’s management said that the low margin in Q1 was “a bit of an anomaly from both a mix and incentives perspective.”

It’s clearly an issue that’s front of mind for the C-suite.

“We want to reiterate our focus on returns and what we’ve been able to accomplish with return on equity through the combination of elevated gross margins, high gross margins, good operating margin, and capital redeployment through dividends and repurchase,” Martin Connor, Toll’s chief financial officer, said.

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Luke Kawa

Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Luke Kawa

Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

markets

Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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