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How a week that started in chaos turned into a big ol’ nothingburger

I think we can all agree that everyone remained completely calm and was their best selves this week.

Luke Kawa
8/9/24 4:12PM

Market historians poring over daily charts will (rightly) believe this week was one for the ages. Those who pore over weekly charts will confine this to the dustbin of history.

The week started with widespread panic about the unwind of leveraged trades, as US stocks tumbled on Monday morning, the US dollar plummeted versus the Japanese yen, and the US stock market’s volatility index hit its highest level outside of COVID or the financial crisis.

It ends with most of those “great unwinds” being almost – or completely – re-wound.

The S&P 500 opened down more than 4% on Monday; the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 opened down more than 5%. And wouldn’t you know it, the tech-heavy gauge ended the week with a small gain while the S&P 500 was virtually unchanged. Amidst the huge intraday and day-to-day volatility, the benchmark US stock gauge has largely carved out a near-term trading range of 5200 to 5340 this week.

We were only halfway through the unwind of the so-called “yen carry trade” that was wreaking havoc on markets this Monday, according to JPMorgan. Since then the US dollar has ripped higher versus the yen to end the week just barely positive. So much for volatility: the cross moved 0.1% this week when all was said and done.

And, perhaps most astoundingly, the VIX Index – Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – spiked to nearly 66 on Monday morning in the pre-market. It ends this Friday lower than it was one week ago.

An environment where volatility can go haywire, then vanish almost as quickly as it appears, is not necessarily a very healthy market.


And implied correlations continue to creep higher despite the fall in volatility. It might not sound like much, but correlations rising by 2.5 percentage points while the VIX falls by 2.5 points is an odd outcome.

In totality, we’re left with another mixed message from a market that’s chock full of them: things are nowhere near as stressed as the daily charts would lead you to believe, but much more fragile than the weekly charts would imply.

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Warner Bros. Discovery jumps after Wells Fargo ups price target on dealmaking buzz

Warner Bros. Discovery shares popped 7% Tuesday after Wells Fargo raised its price target on the media giant to $14 from $13 while keeping an equal-weight rating.

The bank’s optimism stemmed largely from the media giant’s potential for dealmaking. In June, WBD announced that it would split its operations into two companies, with the Streaming & Studios division (home to Warner Bros. Television, DC Studios, HBO, and Max) standing alone from the networks side (CNN, TNT Sports, and Discovery).

That separation could make the Streaming & Studios unit more attractive to buyers, the analysts said. They valued the segment at about $65 billion, which could translate to a takeover price north of $21 a share. Potential suitors range from Amazon and Apple to Sony and Comcast, though analysts flagged Netflix as the “most compelling” option despite its limited acquisition track record:

“While NFLX has historically not been acquisitive, [streaming and studios’] $12bn in annual content spend + library + 100+ acre studio lot offers a lot. It kickstarts a theatrical IP strategy, quickly scales video games and most importantly provides premium content to members.”

At Goldman Sachs’ Communacopia + Technology Conference this week, CEO David Zaslav also highlighted growing traction at HBO Max and hinted at future crackdowns on password sharing.

WBD shares are up 26% year to date, and up more than 93% over the past 12 months.

markets

Duolingo up on bullish note, hopes for a user rebound

Duolingo rose by the most in nearly a month after an analyst note painted a more bullish picture of the gamified language-learning company despite a dearth of news otherwise.

A quick check-in with analysts covering the stock on Wall Street found most of them otherwise flummoxed on the reason behind the uptick Thursday.

Some, however, suggested the rise may reflect optimism that the company has been able to reverse a monthslong downturn in daily active user metrics — a slump that set in after a social media backlash to a somewhat artless LinkedIn post from the company about its AI first strategy.

The bullish analyst note, published Thursday by Citizens JMP, suggested Duolingo could be a big beneficiary from a change to Apple’s rules governing its App Store driven by a ruling on a federal antitrust case against the company. The analysts wrote:

Given “Apple’s recent changes to U.S. App Store rules that allow developers to steer payments to the web where fees are similar to typical credit card fees rather than Apple’s 30% fee for in-app purchases and 30% fee on subscriptions for the first year and 15% thereafter, we expect mobile app companies including Duolingo, Life360, and Grindr Inc. to unlock meaningful cost benefits.”

At any rate, the next big event on the company’s calendar is its Duocon 2025 conference on Tuesday, where analysts are hoping to hear more hard information on all of the above topics.

markets

Jeep maker Stellantis surges as CEO says the automaker is in productive tariff talks with the US

Shares of Jeep and Dodge maker Stellantis are up more than 8% in Thursday afternoon trading, following comments from the automaker’s new CEO, Antonio Filosa, at a European auto conference.

On tariffs, Filosa said that Stellantis has had a “very productive exchange of ideas” with the Trump administration on the company’s manufacturing footprint and that the environment around the levies is “getting clearer and clearer.”

The US is Stellantis’ top priority, according to Filosa, and the company has taken efforts to turn things around in the market, where its struggled with sales in recent years. To fuel the turnaround, Stellantis is bringing back its popular Jeep Cherokee, which it discontinued in 2023.

As of 12:45 p.m. ET, Stellantis’ trading volume was at more than 140% of its average over the past 30 days.

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