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Intel rises again, riding a wave of Trump support and Apple speculation

Intel is up again early Wednesday, coming within spitting distance of two-year highs, after comments from the president fed into stock market murmurs about the prospect for Apple to become a key customer for Intel’s ailing contract chip-manufacturing business.

In off-the-cuff comments to reporters Tuesday, President Trump took a victory lap over Intel’s rally since the US government’s investment in August.

“The stock went very up, and very high and we made tens of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that “as soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in. They followed us.”

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

The comment is consistent with market speculation that Apple — another company whose operational decisions Trump has pressured and influenced — could become a key customer for the next-generation chipmaking technology known as 18A. Intel has bet billions on 18A in an effort to resuscitate its ailing contract chip-manufacturing business, known as a foundry. But the chipmaker has yet to land a key customer willing to let it make its chips with the new process.

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

“The stock went very up, and very high and we made tens of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that “as soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in. They followed us.”

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

The comment is consistent with market speculation that Apple — another company whose operational decisions Trump has pressured and influenced — could become a key customer for the next-generation chipmaking technology known as 18A. Intel has bet billions on 18A in an effort to resuscitate its ailing contract chip-manufacturing business, known as a foundry. But the chipmaker has yet to land a key customer willing to let it make its chips with the new process.

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

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Tariff-sensitive stocks swoon again after Supreme Court declines to deliver tariff ruling

Déjà vu all over again.

The Supreme Court once again declined to issue an opinion on the legality of the bulk of President Trump’s tariff regime, and once again a basket of stocks deemed to be “tariff losers” is meaningfully underperforming the S&P 500 in response to this lack of a decision.

Since news of the lack of news dropped around 10:12 a.m. ET, Crocs, RH, and Under Armour have been among the worst-performing members in this group, all off more than 1% in the past 10 minutes.

Since news of the lack of news dropped around 10:12 a.m. ET, Crocs, RH, and Under Armour have been among the worst-performing members in this group, all off more than 1% in the past 10 minutes.

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Rivian sinks following UBS downgrade as analysts warn its AI stock boost may have peaked

Shares of EV maker Rivian fell 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday, as the company received a downgrade to “sell” from “neutral” by UBS.

Analyst Joseph Spak said he believes most of Rivian’s AI news has been released and that market expectations for the automaker’s forthcoming R2 may be too high. Still, UBS raised its Rivian price target from $13 to $15.

Earlier this week, analysts at Wolfe Research also downgraded Rivian to “sell” from “hold,” writing that the company wouldn’t benefit from its self-driving updates until late this year.

As of Tuesday’s close, Rivian shares are up 14.7% since its AI day on December 11.

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Nvidia dips after report of Chinese “ban” on H200 imports

As the Commerce Department delivers the equivalent of a ribbon-cutting ceremony for H200 sales to China, officials in the world’s second-largest economy are throwing up more red tape.

Reuters reports that China is not allowing Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to enter the country, citing three people briefed on the subject, one of whom said “it is basically a ban for now,” though this could change. The outlet adds that it “was not immediately able to ascertain whether the directives applied to existing orders for H200 chips or only to new orders.”

Shares of the chip designer are down less than 1% as of 5:50 a.m. ET.

China has been wary of allowing foreign chips to dominate its AI market, preferring measures to bolster its domestic semiconductor production capabilities. And for a while, the US was much more reticent to provide any access. Export restrictions put in place in mid-April during the height of US-China trade tensions prevented Nvidia from sending the H20, a chip that had been tailor-made to comply with export controls, to China. Though that export ban was lifted months later, demand from China “never materialized,” Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said in the wake of the company’s Q3 earnings report. Reports suggested that China banned its leading technology giants from purchasing these semiconductors, instead pushing them toward domestic alternatives. However, the H200 is considerably more powerful than the H20, which suggests the calculus for Chinese policymakers could have changed significantly in light of these different circumstances.

Nvidia is hoping to start to get these chips in the hands of Chinese buyers by the start of the Lunar New Year holiday (February 17) amid a very robust order book that could represent a $54 billion sales opportunity for the chip designer. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department tweaked its export license review policy, paving the way for chips like the H200 — the most powerful processor from Nvidia’s Hopper generation, which preceded Blackwell — to be sent to China.

Reuters’ piece also offers some corroboration on reporting from The Information on Tuesday, which said Chinese regulators told their tech companies they’d only be able to buy these chips “under special circumstances.”

Bloomberg had previously reported that China was planning to approve imports for commercial use “as soon as this quarter.”

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