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We’re celebrating a strong 2026 before it even starts (Yang Huafeng/Getty Images)

Investors are pricing in a global growth revival for 2026

High-beta stocks are outperforming, cyclicals are beating defensives, and long-term bond yields are rising.

12/10/25 4:26PM

There’s a theme to the bounce-back that has the S&P 500 knocking on the door of a fresh record high to shake off its November doldrums: a bet on the revival of global growth heading into 2026.

Traders are embracing the stocks that tend to move more than the overall market and eschewing safer alternatives.

The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF has outperformed the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF for 13 consecutive sessions, a record relative winning streak.

Similarly, a Goldman Sachs basket that tracks the performance of cyclical stocks (ex commodities) versus defensives has gone up for 13 consecutive sessions as well, extending the record streak that surpassed 2017’s run in the green.

Back in 2017, “synchronized global growth” was the macroeconomic narrative of the year.

On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF jumped 3.5%, its biggest one-day gain since August, propelling the group to a 52-week closing high. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF, an equally weighted basket of consumer-oriented names, jumped 1.4% to the cusp of a 52-week high.

“Given strong domestic demand trends and a lack of household and corporate financial vulnerabilities, combined with fading tariff impacts and fiscal stimulus, 2026 outlooks remain somewhat too pessimistic,” wrote Peter Williams, an economist at 22V Research. “Recent bank, card, and consumer names continue to support this view.”

The Federal Reserve implicitly endorsed this pro-growth stance through its Summary of Economic Projections released in tandem with Wednesday’s rate cut, upgrading its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 to 2.3% from 1.8% in its September estimates.

During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the central bank’s improved growth outlook to resilient consumer spending, continued AI data center capex, and supportive fiscal policy.

Many developed market central banks, including Canada, the Eurozone, Sweden, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, are priced to have policy rates higher in one year’s time than they are now. This is not something that happens in a world where investors are preoccupied with downside risks to growth and inflation. Since late October, long-term bond yields have been rising all over the world, another signal of confidence in the outlook for nominal activity (and also reflecting large budget deficits that put a floor under growth).

Add it up and you have the bond and stock markets shaking their Magic 8 Balls to wonder about the year ahead and seeing the same answer:

“Outlook good.”

Max Knoblauch2h

US airlines pop on report Spirit preparing to shut down as government rescue deal fails to gain support

US airlines are spiking on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that low-budget carrier Spirit Airlines is preparing to shut down. According to CBS News, the airline could cease operations as early as Saturday, barring an intervention.

In late April, President Trump said he would “love somebody to buy Spirit.” The administration weighed a $500 million rescue package, though it received significant blowback from members of Congress and ultimately didn’t receive support from Spirit’s creditors.

On Friday, Trump told reporters that the administration has given Spirit a “final proposal.”

Shares of Spirit’s rivals surged on the report, with budget carriers like Frontier Airlines and JetBlue climbing by double digits. The big four — Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines — rose by low single digits. Alaska Air and Allegiant also saw a bump.

Helena Cheng3h

Estée Lauder gets a glow-up after earnings beat, guidance hike

Estée Lauder shares are soaring after the beauty giant released Q3 earnings results that topped expectations and raised its full-year outlook, while also expanding its restructuring plan.

The key numbers:

Revenue of $3.71 billion (compared to analysts’ estimate of $3.69 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 (estimate: $0.65).

Estée Lauder also lifted its full-year earnings outlook to a range of $2.35 to $2.45 per share, up from $2.05 to $2.25 previously.

The bottom line is getting flattered by job cuts, with management increasing that target to as many as 10,000 roles, up from a prior range of 5,800 to 7,000, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and shift toward faster-growing sales channels.

The rally comes after a tough stretch for the stock, which is down more than 20% year to date, with the results inspiring hope that its turnaround efforts will bear fruit.

CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said fiscal 2026 is “promising to be the pivotal year we intended,” with the company expecting to restore organic sales growth and expand margins for the first time in four years.

Amid these positive signals, Estée Lauder flagged risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions tied to the Middle East.

Matt Phillips

FLASHBACK

Stocks like Dell, Intel, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Cisco are on fire.

J. Edward Moreno6h

Moderna beats Q1 estimates and reaffirms full-year guidance

Moderna rose in premarket trading after it reported earnings results that beat Wall Street expectations and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

For the first three months of 2026, the company reported:

An adjusted loss per share of $3.40, less than the $4.45 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet had expected.
Revenue of $352 million, more than the $236 million the Street was anticipating. About 80% of that came from outside the US, the company said.

For the full year in 2026, the company still expects:

Revenue to grow 10%. Currently, analysts are penciling in $2 billion in 2026 sales, which is about a 5% increase.

Moderna was tapped by the US government to quickly develop a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2020, a product that has seen its sales plummet, but remains the company’s main source of revenue.

Now, the company sees growth on the horizon this year, after the European Commission approved its combination vaccine for the flu and COVID-19 for adults ‌50 years and older. Indeed, Moderna said a growing share of its revenue is coming from international markets.

The company has had a harder time getting approval from the US Food and Drug Administration, though the agency said in February that it would reconsider its stand-alone flu vaccine.

Helena Cheng6h

Chevron posts mixed Q1 results, as sales miss offsets big earnings beat

Chevron is modestly lower after posting mixed Q1 results, as investors wonder whether elevated oil prices and crack spreads will continue to buoy earnings in the quarters to come.

The key numbers:

Q1 revenue of $48.6 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $50.6 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.41 (estimate: $0.90).
Production of 3.86 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (estimate: 3.8 million).

The upside surprise in Chevron’s upstream (production) business more than offset underwhelming results in its downstream (refined) division.

Friday’s dip comes with Chevron outperforming most of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund as of 10:36 a.m. ET, with tumbling West Texas Intermediate futures weighing on energy stocks.

Chevron said earnings would have been better if not for “unfavorable timing effects” totaling about $2.9 billion, which included mark-to-market losses on derivatives and inventory accounting impacts, weighing on reported earnings.

“Despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions, Chevron delivered solid first-quarter performance,” CEO Mike Wirth said, citing strong US operations and production growth following the integration of Hess.

Ahead of these results, Chevron had also cautioned that supply may take time to respond to higher prices. Wirth also said in a CBS interview that restoring production is “not like turning on a faucet,” noting it can take “weeks and months, in some cases years” to bring disrupted fields and infrastructure back online.

The results also come as Wirth met with President Trump and other energy executives this Tuesday to discuss potential steps to stabilize oil markets in the event that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited.