markets

11/4/24

Investors are worried about the US election, but not enough to flee the stock market

Investors are clearly bracing for the US election to leave a mark on markets.

Jeff Jacobson, equity-derivatives strategist at 22V Research, flagged that options markets are pricing in a 2.6% move for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust for the week, and an even larger 3% swing for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

But even so, investors aren’t worried to the point of being paralyzed by inaction or sizing down risk ahead of this event, according to Deutsche Bank.

“Our measure of equity positioning has continued to go sideways modestly above neutral, in contrast to sharp declines into underweight territory heading into the last two elections,” wrote strategists led by Parag Thatte.

DB equity positioning — Source: Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 also fell less in October than the benchmark normally does ahead of a tight election, they observed. That’s a continuation of a welcome trend that has seen the stock market do much better in 2024 than it has in a typical presidential election year.

DB election year performance — Source: Deutsche Bank

And to repeat one of our favorite quotes: performance is a magnet for assets.

DB equity flows election year — Source: Deutsche Bank

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11m

Six Flags pops after reiterating its guidance as theme park attendance rebounds

Six Flags shares rose more than 7% today after the company reported a rebound in attendance and early season-pass sales heading into the fall. The nine-week period ending August 31 saw 17.8 million guests, up about 2% from the same stretch in 2024, with stronger momentum in the final four weeks.

More importantly, Six Flags reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $860 million to $910 million, showing confidence that its cost and operations strategy can stay strong for the duration of the year. Riding that wave, Six Flags also said early 2026 season pass unit sales are pacing ahead of last year, and average season pass prices are up around 3%.

The good vibes come despite a drop in in-park per capita spending, especially from admissions, where promotions and changes to attendance mix (which parks or days guests visit) have weighed. Earlier this week, the amusement giant extended a new agreement that extended its position as the exclusive amusement park partner for Peanuts™ in North America through 2030.

Despite the rally, Six Flags shares are down around 52% year-to-date.

markets

2h

Rivian turns red on the year, squeezed by a recall and the looming end of the EV tax credit

Shares of EV maker Rivian are down more than 5% on Friday following the company’s recall of 24,214 vehicles due to a software issue. The stock move erases Rivian’s year-to-date gain and turns the company negative on the year.

Rivian’s 2025 model year R1S and R1T are affected by the defect, which was identified after a vehicle’s hands-free highway assist software failed to identify another vehicle on the road, causing a low-speed collision. Rivian said it’s released an over-the-air update to fix the issue.

The recall marks Rivian’s fifth this year, affecting nearly 70,000 of its vehicles.

Rivian’s shares are down more than 20% from their 2025 high, which came prior to the passage of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” Through the legislation, the $7,500 EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of the month.

markets

J. Edward Moreno

2h

Moderna, Pfizer dip after WaPo reports Trump officials’ plan to link Covid vaccines to child deaths

Vaccine makers are falling after The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration plans to link the coronavirus vaccine to 25 child deaths.

Moderna and Pfizer, the two companies who sell the vaccine in the US, fell by more than 5% and 2%, respectively. The coronavirus vaccine is virtually the only revenue driver for Moderna, while Pfizer has a larger and more diverse portfolio.

Trump officials to link child deaths to covid shots, alarming career scientists

DEVELOPING PROBLEMS

Concerns about rising government debt are not strictly an American problem

Global government debt piles are swelling to record levels. That’s an issue for many nations, but developing countries may be most at risk.

Closeup rolled of variety banknote and multi currency around the world. Exchange rate and Forex investment concept.-Image.

markets

4h

RH slips after missing Q2 estimates and trimming its outlook amid cost pressure

Restoration Hardware shares dropped Friday morning after the luxury furniture brand missed Q2 estimates and tightened its full-year outlook.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.93, below the Street’s estimate of $3.21. Revenue was $899.2 million, also missing analysts’ forecast of $905 million.

RH now expects full-year revenue growth of 9% to 11%, down from prior guidance of 10% to 13%, as margins get squeezed by tariffs and weakness in the housing market. Wall Street had been looking for about 10% growth this year.

The retailer is taking steps to blunt cost pressures, including shifting sourcing away from China. RH expects receipts to fall from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4, with vendors absorbing a meaningful portion of the tariff impact. RH is also boosting US manufacturing capacity in North Carolina and pushing back a new concept launch to next spring.

RH shares are down about 43% year to date.

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