Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

It sucks to be close to OpenAI right now

There’s a common thread between what’s ailing some different parts of the AI trade right now:

A high-profile relationship with OpenAI is a millstone around your neck. The ChatGPT maker is seemingly getting bested by Google’s Gemini 3 (and knows it) while burning a lot of cash, with no end to the red ink in sight.

Such millstone-afflicted parties include:

  • Investing conglomerate SoftBank has tumbled 9.9% and 10.8% in its two most recent trading days in Japan. SoftBank is a useful way to express a view on how OpenAI is doing because the Masayoshi Son-led firm is poised to own about 11% of the company, and increases in its valuation have been a big driver of SoftBank’s growth in net income. SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia in October, likely to finance what it owes OpenAI to build its position in that privately held company.

  • Oracle has the dubious distinction of getting battered across two different asset classes thanks to OpenAI. Remember: traders loved Oracle’s massive cloud-revenue backlog in the abstract. When the specifics were revealed and much of that sales pipeline was down to a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, that was when the stock peaked. More recently, credit default swaps tied to Oracle’s debt have also widened significantly, as the company’s infrastructure build-out is launching to fulfill demand from OpenAI, a customer that’s considered to be significantly less creditworthy.

  • The AI chip business of Advanced Micro Devices had a major breakthrough in October, securing a deal to sell multiple generations of its flagship GPUs for “tens of billions” in revenue. But... OpenAI was once again the customer. This was quickly followed by a separate announcement that 50,000 of its AI chips would be deployed in data centers run by Oracle starting in the second half of next year, likely de facto representing a further enmeshing of its relationship with OpenAI.

  • Microsoft has a tighter partnership with and bigger equity position in OpenAI than SoftBank. On the other hand, it also has its own successful core business, which significantly dilutes any OpenAI “signal,” so to speak. It’s the second-worst publicly traded hyperscaler in November, down almost double digits and trailing only Oracle.

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Luke Kawa
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Ben Walsh

President Trump announces data center electricity deals at State of the Union

President Donald Trump said during Tuesday's State of the Union address that he's struck agreements with tech companies to pay more for electricity in areas where they build data centers.

The "rate payer protection pledges" are intended to insulate consumers from higher bills in regions where new, power-hungry data centers are built. The White House earlier told Politico that they plan meant that tech giants would "pay their own way" and offset their demand for power causing electricity bills for all ratepayers to increase.

Some tech companies are already trying to get out in front of the public's negative perception of their surging electricity use, and Trump's criticism of it. In January, Microsoft committed to paying up for its data-center electricity use. That move came after criticism from the President. As part of the plan, Microsoft said it would ask utilities and public commissions to charge it rates hight enough to cover the costs of both data center installation and usage, and support two-tier pricing systems where “Very Large Customers” (like data centers) get charged higher prices.

Coming in to the end of 2025, utilities with a footprint on the countries largest utility grid, the PJM interconnection which serves vast swathes of the Eastern seaboard and Great Lakes region, like Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and Vistra saw their share prices surge as electricity auction prices hit record highs. So far in 2026, however, that trade has largely reversed.

Trump tries to get ahead of voters’ grumbling on AI data costs

Some tech companies are already trying to get out in front of the public's negative perception of their surging electricity use, and Trump's criticism of it. In January, Microsoft committed to paying up for its data-center electricity use. That move came after criticism from the President. As part of the plan, Microsoft said it would ask utilities and public commissions to charge it rates hight enough to cover the costs of both data center installation and usage, and support two-tier pricing systems where “Very Large Customers” (like data centers) get charged higher prices.

Coming in to the end of 2025, utilities with a footprint on the countries largest utility grid, the PJM interconnection which serves vast swathes of the Eastern seaboard and Great Lakes region, like Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and Vistra saw their share prices surge as electricity auction prices hit record highs. So far in 2026, however, that trade has largely reversed.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Lucid reports Q4 earnings miss, revenue beat

Luxury EV maker Lucid reported its fourth-quarter earnings after the bell Tuesday. Shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading.

The company posted an adjusted loss of $3.08 per share, wider than the $2.63 loss expected by analysts polled by FactSet. Lucid booked $522.7 million in revenue, beating the consensus estimate of $459.5 million.

Lucid issued a full-year 2026 production outlook of between 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles, representing 40% to 51% growth from 2025’s figures. Lucid downwardly revised its full-year 2025 production numbers from 18,378 to 17,840 vehicles due to internal validation issues.

The company maintained the timeline of its unnamed midsize SUV due to begin production later this year. That schedule puts it close to rival Rivian’s planned second-quarter release of its R2 SUV.

Lucid did not issue an update to its ongoing CEO search. The company has been led by interim CEO Marc Winterhoff for the past year, after it abruptly announced in its fourth-quarter 2024 report that then CEO Peter Rawlinson would step aside.

The stock has fallen to all-time lows this month and is down 98% from its high in 2021. Last week, the company announced it would lay off 12% of its US workforce in an effort to improve profitability.

markets
Matt Phillips

Tempus AI slides after missing Q4 EBITDA target

Cancer diagnostics company and sometimes retail shareholder favorite Tempus AI reported soft Q4 adjusted EBITDA numbers late Tuesday, sending shares lower in the after-hours session. 

It reported: 

  • Q4 revenue of $367.2 million vs. FactSet’s expectation of $362.8 million.

  • An adjusted loss per share of $0.04 vs. the $0.04 loss estimated.

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $12.9 million vs. expectations for $22 million, per FactSet.

Since going public in June 2024, Tempus has been a volatile stock that has both doubled — and cratered — on multiple occasions. That spectacle has at times captured the attention of retail traders who’ve tried to ride the waves.

Of late, the wave has been breaking bad, with shares down more than 30% since the stock hit a record high on October 8, 2025

Still, the company is now adjusted EBITDA positive. That, CEO Eric Lefkofsky told us last year, is the first milestone on Tempus’ journey to profitability, a mark that analysts think will take until at least next year for the company to hit.

Tasha Matsumoto
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Stocks bounce back powered by tech rebound

Tech rose amid AMD and Meta’s chip deal, and software stocks recovered as investors shook off yesterday’s dystopian AI report.

Anfernee Simons #2 of the Chicago Bulls dribbles during the second half of their NBA game against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena on February 5, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

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