Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the House Financial Services Committee hearing (Tom Williams/Getty Images)

jobs jobs jobs

Your full-time job is now Jay Powell's full-time job

Keeping the labor market from softening any further is the top US central banker’s top concern.

Luke Kawa

8/23/24 11:18AM

Two Federal Reserve officials laid out wildly competing visions for the US job market in the mountains of Wyoming over the past two days.

And we should probably be glad that the more pro-labor view is coming from the person who’s ultimately in charge.

On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker advocated for a “slow, methodical approach” to lowering interest rates and suggested that the unemployment rate would likely rise to close to 5%.

The cycle low for the unemployment rate is 3.4%; near 5% would mean a 1.5 percentage point increase in joblessness. Based on data going back to the late 1940s, every time the unemployment rate has gone up that much, the economy had either entered a recession or was about to do so.

Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research, flagged that based on a popular model that sketches out a relationship between joblessness and growth, reaching a 5% unemployment rate in a year’s time would imply that the economy contracted slightly.

Harker is the bear case for the labor market, the economy, and by extension, the stock market, too. More joblessness equals less spending, which means lower corporate profits.

Fed Chair Jay Powell provided a stark contrast in his address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday morning.

While Harker seems to think that maintaining current labor market conditions isn’t a top priority, Powell’s speech included many forceful arguments that the central bank should want the labor market to be at least this good, if not better.

Some key quotes:

“...labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent.”

Translation: We’ve had a better job market than this at a time when we weren’t worried about inflation, so we have room for labor market conditions to improve from here without fearing a long-lived resurgence in price pressures.

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”

Translation: Well, I’m certainly not saying the unemployment rate should go to 5%!

“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Translation: a rising unemployment rate is currently more of a worry than inflation that is still a little higher than the central bank would prefer.

If Harker is the bear case, then Jay Powell is the bull case. And since he’s the one with the most influence among monetary decision-makers, investors are treating his bull case like it’s their base case – at least for today.

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J. Edward Moreno16h

FDA says it will take “decisive steps” against GLP-1 compounders, HHS refers Hims to DOJ for investigation

The Food and Drug Administration said it would take "decisive steps" to restrict GLP-1 compounding, a day after Hims & Hers announced that it would sell copies ofNovo Nordisk’sWegovy pill.

The FDA specifically called out Hims in the announcement. Additionally, Department of Health and Human Services' General Counsel Mike Stuart said in a post on X on Friday he has referred Hims to the Department of Justice "for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions."

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Shares of Hims fell 14% after hours. The stock had already taken a hit after FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said in an X post on Thursday that the agency would “take swift action against companies mass-marketing illegal copycat drugs.”

Hims, long flying under regulators’ radar, finally strikes a nerve with its Wegovy pill copy

In a statement, Hims said the company "has always operated with a deep commitment to the safety and best interests of consumers and in compliance with applicable law."

"We have a long history of successfully working with regulators, and look forward to continuing to engage with the FDA to ensure safe access to affordable healthcare," they said.

Based on a review of the applicable facts, earlier today @HHSOGC referred Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (“Hims”) to the Department of Justice for investigation for potential violations by Hims of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and applicable Title 18 provisions.
— HHS General Counsel Mike Stuart (@HHSGCMikeStuart) February 6, 2026

This marks a significant shift in tone from the FDA, which has done little to prevent companies like Hims from marketing copies of Novo's lucrative weight loss drugs.

Tasha Matsumoto

17h

Tech rebound propels stocks to best day since May

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all climbed higher as the AI trade was back on.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91) and Michael Jordan (23) in action, rebounding vs Charlotte Hornets

Max Knoblauch20h

Airlines rise, continuing their volatile 2026, as US-Iran talks may foreshadow some oil supply relief

Airline stocks are surging on Friday, as the market appears to be pricing in some medium-term oil pricing relief following talks between the US and Iran. Iranian officials referred to the meeting as “a good beginning.”

Shares of budget carriers, which have tighter margins and are more sensitive to fluctuations in fuel costs, are leading the surge. Frontier Airlines and Allegiant up more than 13%, while major airlines like United Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines are also up at least 6%. JetBlue and Alaska Air are similarly up about 6%.

The market more broadly is rebounding on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 1.6% and bitcoin recovering some of this week’s losses.

Airlines have been volatile to start 2026 amid geopolitical tensions, varying annual forecasts, and the impact of winter storms.

Luke Kawa21h

The AI supply chain is soaring thanks to Amazon’s capex budget

If tech companies are going to spend way more than expected on capex, well, that means other companies are poised to benefit from that massive spending spree.

Amazon’s plan for $200 billion in business investment this year was the exclamation point to end a reporting period that saw every Magnificent 7 hyperscaler that provides guidance offer a 2026 capex budget well above what Wall Street had anticipated.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Big Tech capital expenditure soared in 2025. It’s going up another 50% in 2026.

Here’s a look at the different parts of the supply chain that are soaring on the persistent demand for, and seeming scarcity of, AI compute:

Data center/neocloud companies: Applied Digital, CoreWeave, Cipher Mining, and Nebius, with some of these seemingly getting an extra lift from their legacy role as crypto miners.
Chips: the usual suspects — Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices.
Racks: Super Micro Computer, which is continuing its strong run following earnings, and Dell.
Power: Oklo, Nuscale, and Plug Power.

Matt Phillips22h

For memory chips, the “parabolic price hike” is continuing to ramp higher

The remarkable run-up in prices for memory chips continued into early February, analysts at Bernstein Research say, driven largely by data center demand from hyperscalers and cloud service providers (CSP).

Prices for NAND flash memory wafers — a type of memory used in devices, as it retains data even when powered down — soared 35% between the end of 2025 and February 2.

Spot prices for DRAM — ubiquitous short-term data storage chips — jumped about 28% in that period. But that massively understates the remarkable shift in pricing for what were long seen as commodity tech hardware inputs. DRAM prices are more than 2,000% over the last year, while NAND prices are up more than 600% in that period.

The ongoing momentum provides still more support for memory chip plays like Micron and Sandisk, which have been big market winners in recent months.

In a note published earlier this week, Bernstein Research analysts wrote:

“The parabolic price hike continued in Jan. Indicated price increase for 1QCY26 is much stronger than we expected and we hence see upside to our near term memory pricing projection. Unrelenting CSP demand remained the main driver. PC and Mobile demand hasn’t been destroyed yet because of lean inventory & pull-forward purchase. Going forward price hike is expected to continue but likely at a slower rate, as PC and Mobile demand should contract meaningfully this year. Price however may stay elevated throughout this year, supported by CSP demand.”

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