Stocks fall as the AI trade slumps

Enphase Energy fell in after-market trading Tuesday as uninspiring Q2 guidance overshadowed better-than-expected numbers in its Q1 earnings report. The maker of solar power and battery equipment reported:

• Sales of $282.9 million vs. $282.3 million FactSet expectation.

• Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.47 vs. $0.43 expectation.

• Q2 guidance for revenue between $280 million and $310 million ($295 million at the midpoint) vs. $294.9 million expectation.

Enphase was a sometimes-popular retail trade of the Covid era, when federal tax credits and and low interest rates led to a burst of activity for rooftop solar installation. Between the end of 2019 and 2022, the shares rose more than 1,000%.

But as interest rates rose — driven, in part, by both Fed hikes and worries the increases wouldn’t be enough to quell price growth — and Republicans stripped out key tax credits and subsidies for the solar sector from the federal budget, the shares tanked. They’ve lost nearly 90% of their value since peaking in December 2022, and have emerged as a favorite for short-sellers. Roughly 20% of the company's public float is now in the hands of bearish traders.

Fuel cell maker and momentum trading favorite Bloom Energy surged late Tuesday after reporting Q1 earnings and revenue that trounced Wall Street expectations while ratcheting guidance higher. Here are the numbers:

• Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $0.44 vs. the $0.12 expected by analysts, according to FactSet.

• Revenue of $751.1 million vs. the $539.9 million consensus forecast.

• Full-year EPS guidance of between $1.85 and $2.25 vs. previous guidance of between $1.33 and $1.48 and Wall Street expectations for $1.42.

Bloom Energy shares have been ripping in 2026. They’ve doubled this year, and were up sharply in April after the company announced that it was expanding a deal to supply its fuel cells to Oracle’s data centers. (Oracle has also received warrants in April to buy Bloom stock as part of a previous deal.)

The rise of the stock — it’s up more than 1,200% over the last 12 months — has been driven by simultaneous rise in market sentiment and expectations for business results. Analysts have lifted their full-year 2026 earnings expectations for Bloom by about 30% since the start of the year.

But even accounting for those improving fundamentals, the stock is still quite highly priced by conventional metrics, trading at a multiple of almost 120x earnings over the next 12 months and about 17x expected sales.

Seagate Technology Holdings ripped late Tuesday after the maker of relatively cheap data-storage devices, known as hard disk drives, reported better-than-expected quarterly numbers and guidance in its earnings report. Seagate reported:

• Revenue of $3.11 billion vs. the $2.96 billion expectation from Wall Street analysts, per FactSet.

• Adjusted earnings per share of $4.10 vs. the $3.51 anticipated on the Street.

• EPS guidance of between $4.80 and $5.20 (midpoint $5.00) for the current quarter — which ends in June — vs. $3.99 expectation.

• Sales guidance of between $3.35 billion and $3.55 billion ($3.45 midpoint) for the current quarter vs. Wall Street’s expectation for $3.16 billion.

The sudden explosion of Seagate shares — and those of its disk-making rival, Western Digital, has been one of the more surprising outgrowths of the AI boom.

A little over a year ago — on April 8, 2025 — Seagate shares had been essentially flat for over a decade. (They ended that day up 0.1% since the end of 2014.) Since then, they’re up roughly 800%, as the reality of seemingly endless AI-related demand for data storage became plain.

Perhaps most impressive, is that the pace of the gains is quickening. If the after-hours gains hold, Seagate is on track for April to be its the best month since October 2011.