Markets
Luke Kawa
7/26/24

US stocks jump as small cap surge continues

The S&P 500 snapped its longest losing streak since April with its largest gain in over a month, ending up 1.1%. The Nasdaq 100 gained 1%, while the Russell 2000 led the way again with a 1.7% advance. 

Small caps have outperformed for six consecutive sessions, tying their longest such run since September 2022.

The S&P 500, however, still ended up posting back-to-back weekly losses for the first time since April, and a jam-packed week of market-moving events looms.

Brian Garrett, managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note to analysts that “next week is arguably the busiest week of the summer,” and flagged that the options-implied move for the S&P 500 was +/-2%. That’s the biggest anticipated weekly move for the benchmark index this year.

Not only is there a Federal Reserve meeting and the monthly US non-farms payroll report, but 40% of the S&P 500 (by market cap) reports, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. 

Friday’s gains were broad-based, with seven stocks in the S&P 500 up for every one that was down. Eight S&P sector ETFs gained more than 1% and all were positive, led by the 1.9% rise in communication services.

A number of standout earnings reports buoyed US stocks to close out the week.

3M had its best day in more than four decades, gaining 23% on strong quarterly results that inspired hopes that the new CEO’s turnaround plan would bear fruit. 

Mohawk Industries also exceeded expectations on earnings and boosted its guidance for the current quarter, sparking a 19.5% advance. 

Charter Communications enjoyed its best day on record, up 16.6% with analysts pleasantly surprised by its strong free cash flow and lower-than-expected subscriber losses.

Shares of Bristol Myers also rose double digits — its best day since 2000 — after hiking its full-year profit forecast and having all of its largest drugs post better-than-expected sales.

On the other side of the spectrum, Dexcom cratered, down 40.7% for its worst day ever. The company slashed its sales forecast, with analysts expecting more pressure on operating performance as GLP-1 weight loss drugs dent demand for its glucose monitoring products.

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Analysts weigh in on DraftKings’ tumble: One sees a “back up the truck” opportunity to buy the dip

Wall Street analysts are reacting to the sharp slide of online gambling stocks DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment Tuesday, after prediction markets company Kalshi introduced a product mimicking the parlay bets on the betting apps, intensifying concerns about the competitive pressures prediction markets pose.

Citi analysts snipped their Q3 estimates and price target for DraftKings — while maintaining a buy rating — after Tuesday’s tumble. They wrote:

We are lowering our 3Q25 estimates and now forecast 2025 to come in toward the lower end of the firm’s guide. Along with results, we believe investors will be focusing on initial trends since the start of the NFL season, the evolving prediction market landscape, the firm’s recent NBCU partnership, and recent product enhancements.

BMO Capital, however, kept its overweight rating on the stock, which it calls a “top pick,” seeing Tuesday’s nearly 12% drop as a chance to buy the dip: 

While bears will point to product enhancements (parlays) and trade volume momentum by prediction markets, we believe legal [online sports betting] vendors continue to control the lions share of betting volume in the legal betting markets. We view todays sell-off, in particular, as a back up the truck opportunity.

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Lithium Americas spikes on plans for the Department of Energy to take 5% stake in exchange for early access to financing and deferred debt service

Shares of Lithium Americas are up more than 30% as of 7:35 a.m. ET after the miner announced a nonbinding agreement for the US government to receive an equity position in the company, in exchange for providing accelerated funding of a loan and offering more favorable repayment terms.

The DOE would get a 5% equity stake in the company via warrants in exchange for advancing $435 million of its previously announced loan (now worth a total of $2.23 billion) to Lithium Americas this quarter, as well as deferring interest payments on $182 million of those funds for five years.

“There can be no assurances that definitive documentation memorializing the First Draw Terms will be completed on the terms currently contemplated or at all,” the Vancouver-based company cautioned in its press release.

The first draw of Lithium Americas’ loan from the DOE is slated to be used to advance its joint venture with General Motors, a mine being developed in northern Nevada. GM is also amending the terms of this joint venture to facilitate the sale of production it does not expect to purchase. The DOE will also receive a 5% nonvoting, nontransferable economic stake in this particular project, also via warrants.

This planned pact comes on the heels of separate deals earlier this year that saw the government receive an equity stake in MP Materials and Intel, which has helped spur massive gains in those stocks.

“This proposed stake is another example of the Trump Administration taking equity stakes with American companies to promote industries seen as critical to national security with the majority of lithium reserves coming from foreign adversaries, especially China with the Thacker Pass Facility Buildout seen as crucial to national security,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote. “This is important as the Trump Administration is now looking far and wide (globally) for stakes in strategic companies, not just US names.”

As we’ve written, why follow the Fed when you can just follow the feds?

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Nike pops on Q1 earnings beat and surprise revenue jump

Nike was trading as much as 3.7% higher early on Wednesday after the company topped first-quarter estimates after the bell on Tuesday.

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.49, nearly double the $0.27 expected by Wall Street. Revenue rose to $11.7 billion, also handily beating analyst forecasts of $11 billion, suggesting that the company’s turnaround plan is beginning to bear fruit in both footwear and apparel, which beat consensus estimates by 6% and 13%, respectively. Wholesale revenues rose 7% to $6.8 billion.

On Friday, the sneaker giant rolled out its first collaboration with Kim Kardashian’s Skims, betting that the brand’s popularity and star power will help expand its female customer base.

Ahead of earnings, Nike shares were down over 5% year to date.

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