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Markets are getting more concerned about Oracle’s AI data center debt

The price of insuring against Oracle defaulting on its growing debt load has spike massively since September.

11/25/25 12:33PM

After a respite Monday, AI bears are back in control Tuesday.

Bellwethers like Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia are getting battered on reports of a brewing collaboration between Alphabet and Meta on chips. And that partnership’s potential threat to OpenAI and some of those who’ve inked deals with the AI startup giant — as investors, customers, suppliers, and sometimes all three! — is causing some jitters out there.

Meanwhile, concerns about all that borrowing that companies have planned or done to finance the giant AI data center build-out boom that’s currently underway continue burbling away in the bond markets. As we’ve mentioned, the price of insuring against a debt default by Oracle has become a closely watched expression of worries about the AI boom.

While some of those concerns seemed to relent earlier today, resulting in a slight reduction in prices for this bond insurance — known as credit default swaps — on Oracle debt, it’s worth pointing out that the concerns also seem to have spread a bit even to companies that have far sturdier financials than Oracle.

And despite today’s dip, the cost to protect against an Oracle default has surged massively in recent weeks.

For instance, according to FactSet data, Microsoft and Meta have also seen prices of insuring against their own default creep higher recently, along with Amazon.

To be clear, the price for insuring Oracle debt is a lot higher than for these other hyperscalers — likely a reflection of the massive amounts of cash the market expects Oracle to burn for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, it shouldn’t be surprising to see markets reflect rising risks for even blue chips like Microsoft as they take on more debt and commit to years of large capital expenditures for a still developing, new technology.

That stunning acceleration in Wall Street’s estimates for Oracle’s cash burn is likely driving the rapid rise in the cost of Oracle CDS. Investors went from thinking that Oracle would generate $25 billion in free cash flow in 2028 to expecting the company to burn $25 billion 2028.

While recently, increased investments in anything AI-related have seemed to push stocks up, that this historical reversal has led not just to more expensive CDS but a slumping share price signals a rise in maybe not skepticism, but at least realism in the market when it comes to the AI boom.

Luke Kawa3h

It looks like the stock market was expecting some tariff relief

The S&P 500 briefly dipped into negative territory and tariff-sensitive stocks swung from big gains to big losses after the Supreme Court declined to give a ruling on tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the IEEPA.

A basket of “Trump Tariff Losers” stocks compiled by UBS, which includes Under Armour, American Eagle, Yeti, Mattel, and Deckers Outdoor, was up as much as 1.5% in early trading before falling as much as 1.7% after news of the lack of news surfaced.

The good news is that for the market as a whole (and even this group in particular), the pain seems to have been short-lived, with both bouncing back to erase losses.

It’s a decent little snapshot or case study to show that, yes, as prediction markets imply, the stock market is pricing in tariff relief.

J. Edward Moreno3h

Amazon pharmacy to begin offering home delivery for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill

Amazon Pharmacy announced Friday that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s recently approved weight-loss pill Wegovy, the newest frontier in the drugmaker’s push toward direct-to-consumer options.

Amazon said it will offer delivery for the pill through insurance and cash-pay options. Novo’s cash-pay price for the pill is $149 a month — less than half of what its injectables cost through the same channel.

Novo has partnered with big-box stores like Costco and Walmart as well as several big telehealth companies, including Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD, to distribute the pill. This comes as the Danish pharma giant is trying to regain ground after Eli Lilly surpassed it in market share, in large part because of its early emphasis on direct-to-consumer channels.

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo’s weight-loss pill in December, making it the first approved weight-loss pill to go to market. It has the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable products, Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly’s oral version, orforglipron, is expected to come to market later this year.

Matt Phillips3h

Intel gains after a favorable post from Trump

Intel continued its strong 2026 start by rising early Friday, following a favorable online post from President Trump, whose administration partially nationalized the ailing American chip giant in August.

In a Truth Social post Thursday afternoon, he praised CEO Lip-Bu Tan, boasted about the amount of money the government’s 10% investment in the company has made, and said, “Our Country is determined to bring leading edge Chip Manufacturing back to America, and that is exactly what is happening!!!”

Even after adjusting for the Trumpian tendency toward hyperbole, that last comment will be intriguing to Intel watchers. The company’s search to make deals with external customers willing to use its next-generation contract chip manufacturing business, crucial to the future of Intel’s ailing foundry business, will likely be a key driver of the stock price this year.

It’s not nuts to think that having the US government as a shareholder and the president as an active cheerleader — especially one who’s not shy about putting pressure on private sector companies to get what he wants — could be helpful in corralling reticent foundry customers.

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

Intel stock rises after Trump touts 'very successful' CEO, applauds government's investment

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

Max Knoblauch3h

Southwest climbs to highest since 2022 on a double upgrade and 66% price target hike from JPMorgan

A rare double upgrade from JPMorgan has Southwest Airlines taking off on Friday morning, with shares up 4% shortly after the market opened.

The firm upgraded Southwest from “underweight” to “overweight” and hiked its price target from $36 to $60. According to analyst Jamie Baker, the potential for earnings-per-share guidance of $5 is “attractively probable” in 2026 — a figure that would “handily dwarf” the Wall Street consensus.

“Southwest possesses the industry’s deepest track record of profitability, an investment grade balance sheet, and a loyal customer base,” Baker wrote, adding that recent hiccups and slow adaptation is stabilizing, and revenue-driving initiatives like bag fees are “progressing as planned.”

Bag fees helped drive the airline to record third-quarter revenue in October. Later this month, the carrier will roll out assigned seating, which will open up new seating tier categories (and more premium ticket options).

Max Knoblauch4h

GM says it will take a $6 billion charge in latest major EV write-down

Shares of GM are down about 2% in premarket trading on Friday following the automaker’s announcement on Thursday evening that it expects to take $6 billion in charges in Q4 on its EV pullback.

GM will take an additional $1.1 billion charge on the restructuring of a joint venture in China.

“With the termination of certain consumer tax incentives and the reduction in the stringency of emissions regulations, industry-wide consumer demand for EVs in North America began to slow in 2025. As a result, GM proactively reduced EV capacity,” read a public filing by the company.

The move follows a similar EV-related write-down by rival Ford, which announced a $19.5 billion charge related to its EV pullback.

GM to take $6 billion writedown on EV pullback