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Oracle Credit Default Swaps
(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Markets are getting more concerned about Oracle’s AI data center debt

The price of insuring against Oracle defaulting on its growing debt load has spike massively since September.

After a respite Monday, AI bears are back in control Tuesday.

Bellwethers like Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia are getting battered on reports of a brewing collaboration between Alphabet and Meta on chips. And that partnership’s potential threat to OpenAI and some of those who’ve inked deals with the AI startup giant — as investors, customers, suppliers, and sometimes all three! — is causing some jitters out there.

Meanwhile, concerns about all that borrowing that companies have planned or done to finance the giant AI data center build-out boom that’s currently underway continue burbling away in the bond markets. As we’ve mentioned, the price of insuring against a debt default by Oracle has become a closely watched expression of worries about the AI boom.

While some of those concerns seemed to relent earlier today, resulting in a slight reduction in prices for this bond insurance — known as credit default swaps — on Oracle debt, it’s worth pointing out that the concerns also seem to have spread a bit even to companies that have far sturdier financials than Oracle.

And despite today’s dip, the cost to protect against an Oracle default has surged massively in recent weeks.

For instance, according to FactSet data, Microsoft and Meta have also seen prices of insuring against their own default creep higher recently, along with Amazon.

To be clear, the price for insuring Oracle debt is a lot higher than for these other hyperscalers — likely a reflection of the massive amounts of cash the market expects Oracle to burn for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, it shouldn’t be surprising to see markets reflect rising risks for even blue chips like Microsoft as they take on more debt and commit to years of large capital expenditures for a still developing, new technology.

That stunning acceleration in Wall Street’s estimates for Oracle’s cash burn is likely driving the rapid rise in the cost of Oracle CDS. Investors went from thinking that Oracle would generate $25 billion in free cash flow in 2028 to expecting the company to burn $25 billion 2028.

While recently, increased investments in anything AI-related have seemed to push stocks up, that this historical reversal has led not just to more expensive CDS but a slumping share price signals a rise in maybe not skepticism, but at least realism in the market when it comes to the AI boom.

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Intel shares are officially a thing

April most definitely has not been the cruelest month for US chip giant Intel or its shareholders.

The stock is on a remarkable run that’s made it the best performer in the S&P 500 for the month, posting a gain of nearly 43% shortly after 11 a.m. ET Friday. That’s outdone AI darlings like Sandisk, Lumentum, Ciena Corp., Coherent, and Seagate Technology Holdings.

In fact, the monthly view actually underplays the extent of the stock’s performance. Over the eight sessions that ended yesterday — which includes March 31 — the stock was up just shy of 50%. That’s by far its best eight-day streak over the last 30 years.

Investors have eaten up Intel’s announcements this week of partnerships, first with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Terafab project, and separately, with Alphabet on developing custom chips for Google Cloud’s AI infrastructure needs.

More broadly, the seemingly relentless demand for computing capacity and chips related to AI seems to present, at least, the prospect of Intel actually solving the long-standing problems at its contract chipmaking business — known as a foundry — that have weighed on the business for years.

Oh, being partially nationalized by the US government amid an increasing global focus on ensuring secure supply chains for crucial technologies like semiconductors probably doesn’t hurt either.

(In case you're keeping track, the US bought a nearly 10% stake in Intel for about $8.9 billion in late August of last year. Today, that stake is worth about $27 billion.)

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Palantir’s slide continues, but President Trump tries to help

Investors were selling Palantir shares again on Friday, with the stock falling as much as 6% before stabilizing, thanks to an assist from the White House.

At its worst moments, the sell-off put the retail favorite on track for its worst weekly loss (more than 16%) since February 2021.

But Palantir has powerful friends: President Trump posted on Truth Social celebrating the company’s “great war fighting capabilities,” sending the stock higher, though it remained in the red.

Truth post on PLTR
(Truth Social)

The overall negative sentiment seems to stem from Anthropic’s powerful new AI models, at least judging from the latest epistle from Palantir bull Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities:

“Anthropic released a new product around multi-agent orchestration, which continues to add more headwinds to the software sector. While Anthropic is hitting a new scale with the company now at $30 billion [annual run rate], up from $9 billion at the start of the year, we believe this is not at the expense of PLTR’s business as the company continues to accelerate both its US commercial and government businesses.”

Of course, the specter of AI undermining of other software companies has been a well-established theme for months. And it’s clearly at play in the market on Friday, with Palo Alto Networks, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Figma, and Atlassian continuing to get clocked on negative AI implications.

But the recent inclusion of Palantir among the pack of potentially replaceable software providers is newer, with the view popularized by well-followed market commentator Michael Burry’s pronouncement — since deleted — that Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch,” which seemed to contribute to the downdraft for Palantir today.

The stock dove through its 50-day moving average in recent days, underscoring the sputtering momentum for what has been one of the market’s biggest winners over the last couple years. Long-term holders are still up massively, with the stock up about 1,400% over the last three years.

124% 🚗

China exported more than twice as many electric vehicles (and plug-in hybrids) in the first quarter of 2026 as it did in the same period last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

New energy vehicle exports surged 124% year over year, as major players like BYD and Chery ramped up overseas efforts to combat lower domestic sales. Tesla’s China business also boosted exports, shipping 164% more EVs than the same period the year before.

Nio is ramping up export efforts as well, with a goal to deliver “several thousand” EVs overseas this year and have a presence in 40 countries. Still, the automaker exported 271 vehicles in Q1 — less than half of a percent of the company’s total deliveries.

According to the CPCA, April will see the country’s automotive industry continue its “slow recovery.”

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