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(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Post-shooting, investors are doubling down on a Trump second term

Market prices in a bigger boost to Trump than it did after stunning debate

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally this weekend has investors betting on stocks that are supposed beneficiaries of his presidency, as well as Republican political success more broadly.

On PredictIt, odds of Trump winning the presidency rose to as high as 68% versus 59% on Friday.

Investors are running back the “post-debate” playbook: the price action on Monday resembles June 28, the session after Joe Biden’s poor debate performance seemingly fortified Trump’s electoral prospects.

A thematic basket of stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs of companies that should benefit from Republican victory in the November election are having their best day of the year, up about 1.8% as of 10:40 am ET. They’re outperforming a basket of stocks that would purportedly stand to gain from Democratic political successes by the most this year.

Some companies poised to ride this political wave are posting large gains. Private prison companies GEO Group, and CoreCivic (formerly Corrections Corporation of America) are surging. So are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would stand to gain from renewed privatization efforts.

Private education firms such as Grand Canyon Education, and private college operator Laureate Education are also trading to the upside.

Coal companies Peabody Energy and Arch Resources are having strong good days, as some traders seemed to bet on reversal of some climate-related Biden administration initiatives.

On the opposite side of the ledger are shares of firms associated with Democratic policies priorities, including solar firms like Maxeon Solar Technologies, Sunnova Energy and First Solarand health-insurance companies that’ve built large businesses around Obamacare’s insurance plan exchanges including HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare.

One big exception from this pattern: Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are up over 30% this morning after inexplicably having fallen double digits the day following the presidential debate.

In the bond market, the spread between 2- and 30-year US Treasury yields uninverted this morning for the first time since January, driven by higher 30-year yields.

Higher odds of a Trump win aren’t seen as impacting the trajectory for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate in the near term, but are associated with a higher floor for – and more uncertainty surrounding – growth and inflation over the medium term.

“If the market senses that Trump’s chances to win are higher than they were on Friday — then we would expect the back end of the bond market to sell off in the manner we saw in the immediate aftermath of the debate,” writes Michael Purves, CEO and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

However, foreign exchange markets continue to defy Wall Street’s top prognostication for a second Trump term in office: US dollar strength.

The Dollar Spot Index is flat this morning, and down slightly against the euro — even as economists at Goldman Sachs spotlight the potential negative macro effects Trump’s economic agenda may have on growth and inflation outcomes in the euro area.

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Luke Kawa

Wendy’s spikes on heightened attention from Reddit’s retail traders

From flipping burgers to being flipped by retail traders:

It seems Wendy’s may now be a meme stock?

Shares are up over 30% in early trading, with the ticker being the most mentioned on the WallStreetBets subreddit over the past 12 hours, per SwaggyStocks.

As of 9:03 a.m. ET, more money had changed hands trading Wendy’s stock in the premarket than Microsoft, Palantir, Apple, Amazon, or Meta.

(I’m no doctor, but I think pairing this with a short-lived meme stock of 2025, Krispy Kreme, could result in negative health outcomes.)

User u/ElegantCombination43 recently tried to stir up support by posting in r/wallstreetbets that redditors “need to save Wendy’s before it’s too late,” adding that “we’ll all be out of a job” if it goes bankrupt.

On Tuesday morning, the fast food chain announced a C-Suite shuffle, hiring Steve Cirulis from Potbelly to serve as chief financial officer and chief strategy officer.

Wendy’s could certainly use a shot in the arm to bolster its operations: trailing 12-month sales and adjusted earnings per share for Wendy’s are flat and lower, respectively, since the end of 2023.

Anyhow, Wendy’s fries are superb and second to none. Don’t @ me.

markets

Google invests $75 million in film studio A24, forms AI partnership

Google is investing roughly $75 million in independent film studio A24 as part of an AI partnership, according the Wall Street Journal. The investment marks Google’s first direct stake in a film studio.

Under the agreement, A24 will work with Google DeepMind to develop and test AI tools for filmmaking and production workflows, the Journal reports.

The deal comes as A24 continues to expand its business beyond indie films into television, music, and live events. Since its 2013 launch, the studio has produced Oscar-winning films such as Everything Everywhere All at Once. Its revenue has more than doubled over the past two years, according to the Journal, and the company was last valued at $3.5 billion in a Thrive Capital-led funding round in 2024.

Google’s investment comes as major technology companies increasingly deepen ties with media companies as generative AI tools become more integrated into creative industries. For Google, the partnership also expands DeepMind’s reach into entertainment and film production.

The firm and TV industry is pushing to develop AI tools that can be integrated into the time-consuming and expensive production process. In a sign of the potential value of such tools, in March, Netflix announced it would acquire Ben Affleck's startup InterPositive, which is building AI film-making tools, for $600 million.

markets

Getty Images surges following OpenAI partnership

Getty Images is surging in early trading after the company announced a multi-year licensing and product partnership with OpenAI.

Under the agreement, OpenAI will license Getty’s library of images, videos, and metadata for use in training and improving its AI models, while Getty will integrate OpenAI’s generative AI tools into its own products and services.

The deal comes as Getty faces growing pressure from generative AI tools that can create stock image-like images in seconds, threatening parts of its traditional licensing business. Getty posted revenue of $226.6 million in Q1, down 2.5% year over year on a currency-neutral basis.

Getty was one of the earliest major content companies to challenge AI firms in court, suing Stability AI in 2023 for allegedly scraping millions of copyrighted images without permission to train image-generation models.

The OpenAI deal follows Getty’s 2025 licensing agreement with Perplexity, which gave the AI search company access to Getty’s library and required image credits with links to original sources.

Before the announcement, Getty shares had been trading below $1 for months. The stock surged by 124% in early trading, erasing its year-to-date losses as investors are waiting to see if Getty can turn its licensed content library into a more valuable AI asset.

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