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Post-shooting, investors are doubling down on a Trump second term

Market prices in a bigger boost to Trump than it did after stunning debate

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally this weekend has investors betting on stocks that are supposed beneficiaries of his presidency, as well as Republican political success more broadly.

On PredictIt, odds of Trump winning the presidency rose to as high as 68% versus 59% on Friday.

Investors are running back the “post-debate” playbook: the price action on Monday resembles June 28, the session after Joe Biden’s poor debate performance seemingly fortified Trump’s electoral prospects.

A thematic basket of stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs of companies that should benefit from Republican victory in the November election are having their best day of the year, up about 1.8% as of 10:40 am ET. They’re outperforming a basket of stocks that would purportedly stand to gain from Democratic political successes by the most this year.

Some companies poised to ride this political wave are posting large gains. Private prison companies GEO Group, and CoreCivic (formerly Corrections Corporation of America) are surging. So are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would stand to gain from renewed privatization efforts.

Private education firms such as Grand Canyon Education, and private college operator Laureate Education are also trading to the upside.

Coal companies Peabody Energy and Arch Resources are having strong good days, as some traders seemed to bet on reversal of some climate-related Biden administration initiatives.

On the opposite side of the ledger are shares of firms associated with Democratic policies priorities, including solar firms like Maxeon Solar Technologies, Sunnova Energy and First Solarand health-insurance companies that’ve built large businesses around Obamacare’s insurance plan exchanges including HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare.

One big exception from this pattern: Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group are up over 30% this morning after inexplicably having fallen double digits the day following the presidential debate.

In the bond market, the spread between 2- and 30-year US Treasury yields uninverted this morning for the first time since January, driven by higher 30-year yields.

Higher odds of a Trump win aren’t seen as impacting the trajectory for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate in the near term, but are associated with a higher floor for – and more uncertainty surrounding – growth and inflation over the medium term.

“If the market senses that Trump’s chances to win are higher than they were on Friday — then we would expect the back end of the bond market to sell off in the manner we saw in the immediate aftermath of the debate,” writes Michael Purves, CEO and founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

However, foreign exchange markets continue to defy Wall Street’s top prognostication for a second Trump term in office: US dollar strength.

The Dollar Spot Index is flat this morning, and down slightly against the euro — even as economists at Goldman Sachs spotlight the potential negative macro effects Trump’s economic agenda may have on growth and inflation outcomes in the euro area.

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Power Solutions International mysteriously craters ahead of earnings, then tumbles more after earnings too

Shares of Power Solutions International are extending losses in postmarket trading after the engine- and power-system provider released its Q1 results.

Revenues of $128.6 million came in shy of the consensus call for $161 million, and operating income of $11.4 million was less than half of the anticipated $23.7 million.

(Granted, there were only two estimates available here.)

But the curious thing is... traders didn’t wait until these underwhelming results were released to dump the stock.

Up until about 12:10 p.m. ET, volumes were tracking above their 5-day average, but nothing too abnormal. In the 20-minute span after that — with no reported news on any wires — shares tumbled on 40 times their average volume for that time of day.

The stock finished down 17.7% in regular trading, and extended that loss to down 50% as of 5:05 p.m. ET.

Suffice it to say, this isn’t normal.

Companies operating in a similar segment of the market, like Cummins or Generac Holdings, didn’t suffer a similar intraday swoon.

While other power providers are visibly cashing in on the AI boom and offering robust outlooks tied to data center demand, Power Solutions’ management was reluctant to pencil in anything forward-looking on that front.

“The Company continues to see strong demand for data center power solutions, and expects sales to increase in the second half of 2026,” per the press release. “However, the timing and ultimate volume of related shipments remain subject to customer scheduling, manufacturing throughput, supply-chain factors, and other variables, and the Company is not predicting any specific level of data center revenue in any future period.”

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AST Spacemobile drops after 1Q top and bottom lines miss estimates

After soaring during Monday's session, AST SpaceMobile shares are coming back to earth.

The retail-trading favorite is down double digits in postmarket trading Monday after the company fell short of Wall Street’s expectations with its Q1 earnings report. 

Here are the details:

  • Revenue of $14.7 million (compared to analyst estimates of $39 million). 

  • Net income of -$191 million (estimate: -$76.3 million)

Shares, which rose 10% during the regular session on Monday, fell 11% after the report.

The company — which is building the first space-based cellular broadband network, connecting standard cell phones to satellites — has experienced high stock volatility over the past year. Despite the dips, however, it had still landed up nearly 200% since last May. 

Despite missing Street estimates, the company's revenue is a significant increase over the Q1 2025's $7.18 million, when the company focused primarily on government contract work. The company has a devoted retail following, who call themselves the SpaceMob, who’ve cheered on the SpaceX rival’s rapid growth. 

Today, AST Spacemobile has agreements with Verizon, AT&T, and others to provide space-based internet directly to phones. Earlier this year, it also won a key contract with the US Department of Defense for the “Golden Dome.” 

So far the company has successfully launched seven functioning satellites and on Monday recommitted to plans to have 45 total satellites by 2026. The company currently trails behind Elon Musk’s SpaceX, who says they now have 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit and launched. AST Spacemobile also is one short on their goal after their BlueBird 7 satellite had to be taken out of orbit in April.

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CleanSpark drops after Q2 results trail estimates, with much deeper-than-expected quarterly loss

Shares of CleanSpark are down in postmarket trading after the bitcoin miner and data center developer reported its second-quarter earnings on Monday, missing Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines.

CleanSpark reported:

  • $136.4 million in revenue (compared to analysts consensus estimate of $139.4 million). 

  • An adjusted loss per share of $1.52 (estimate: a $0.66 loss).

Those numbers show revenue down 24.9% year over year.

Like TeraWulf, which reported earnings on Friday, and many, many others, CleanSpark is transitioning from a solely bitcoin mining company to a broader AI infrastructure provider. The company is up 53% over the past year. 

In its press release Monday, the company said it roughly doubled its megawatts under contract year over year. Per Matt Schultz, CEO and chairman of CleanSpark:

Our objectives are clear: commercialize our AI/HPC-applicable assets, grow the portfolio, and continue mining efficiently to power CleanSpark’s transformation.

According to exchange data, CleanSpark is among the Russell 3000 companies that traders love to hate, with roughly 35% of its float sold short as of mid-April. That’s one reason, besides the bitcoin/AI crossover, that the name is on the dashboard of many retail traders.

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MARA dips after missing earnings expectations

Bitcoin miner and data center operator MARA Holdings released its Q1 earnings report Monday afternoon, missing analysts expectations on revenue and earnings per share. Shares dropped in after-hours trading, giving back gains built on Mondays session.

The company reported:

  • Revenue of $174.6 million, below the FactSet analyst consensus estimate of $181.9 million and an 18% decline from $213.9 million in the same period last year.

  • A net loss of $1.3 billion, or a $3.31 loss per diluted share, compared to the $1.55 loss per share in Q1 2025.

The jump in the companys net loss was primarily driven by a $520.4 million increase in operating loss, largely due to unfavorable bitcoin mark-to-market adjustments of ($1.0 billion) and restructuring costs of $45.9 million during the quarter, MARA CFO Salman Khan said in the firms Q1 2026 shareholder letter.

MARA Holdings has the fourth-largest bitcoin treasury and, similar to other mining companies, has made a push to develop infrastructure to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom. Last month, the company announced acquiring Long Ridge Energy & Power LLC for $1.5 billion to add over 1 gigawatt of total potential power capacity.

We expect Long Ridge will continue to supply power to the grid and generate cash flow and positive EBITDA upon closing, MARA Chairman and CEO Fred Thiel said in a statement. Our intention is to develop incremental capacity at the site and build a higher value digital infrastructure asset.”

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