Marvell sinks after Benchmark cuts company, saying that it lost its Amazon custom chip design business

Over the past two trading days, Marvell Technology has faced vexing questions about its relationship with its top two custom chip hyperscaler customers.

Shares are tumbling, down 9% as of 10:21 a.m. ET.

Late last week, The Information reported that Microsoft, its second-biggest custom chip buyer, was in talks to shift that business from Marvell to Broadcom.

Now, Benchmark analyst Cody Acree thinks that Marvell’s largest custom chip customer, Amazon, has done the same, writing that “we now have a high degree of conviction that the company has lost both Amazon’s Trainium3 and 4 designs to its Taiwanese competitor, Alchip.”

Acree downgraded Marvell to “hold” from “buy,” recommending that investors take profit after its post-earnings bounce.

(Harlan Sur at JPMorgan, for what it’s worth, does not believe this is the case, pointing to Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI as providing key technology that aligns the company with Amazon’s future chip design needs.)

During the conference call that followed earnings, Sur asked Marvell CEO Matt Murphy about its role with Amazon chips going forward.

“What I would say, which is incorporated into our numbers, is that our product transition from where we are today with our lead XPU customer to the next one is baked into all the numbers I gave you. And yes, I got the backlog, and I got the orders, and we got great visibility there,” Murphy said.

Murphy’s answer was not quite definitive, according to Acree, who thinks that Marvell’s revenue forecast is being “driven by expected continued Trainium2 volumes and a Kuiper low-earth orbit engagement and not the successful transition to Trainium3 designs that many on the sell-side have concluded.”