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Luke Kawa

Ho-hum May jobs report sends stocks higher

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, solidly above estimates for 126,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% as anticipated.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF and Invesco QQQ Trust extended premarket gains to session highs in the wake of the data, with iShares Russell 2000 ETF pushing more than 1% to the upside.

Heading into this report, there had been some nascent signs of concern about the US labor market — in particular the climb in continuing jobless claims. The headline figures from this jobs report should allay any worries, even as the details of the data were unspectacular to soft. Notably, revisions were brutal, showing that 95,000 fewer jobs were added in March and April than previously thought.

In any event, the pricing of Federal Reserve easing through year-end has dipped from above 50 basis points to below that threshold following this release, suggesting the theme of economic resilience is carrying the day across stock and bond markets.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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