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GameStop store entrance at Rego Center shopping mall, Queens, New York
(Photo by Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Stonks

The return of GameStop stock mania was weeks in the making

Options traders were making wild bets on GME much earlier in May

Luke Kawa, Jack Raines

The return of the meme stock mania that’s seen shares of GameStop rise as much as 270% over the past two days was shaped by bullish bets that were weeks in the making. And if those wagers were ever going to pay off, the surge needed to happen by this specific time.

With hindsight, trading volumes in the stock were picking up for no good reason well ahead of this week. These higher volumes were accompanied by some eyebrow-raising behavior in the options market.

“Something has been percolating”

Daily trading volume ranged from 2.1 million to 7.7 million over the last three months, besides a few days in late March where it briefly jumped to 17 million shares. But then things started changing: on May 3, volume spiked to 36.3 million shares, and between 24 million and 48 million shares changed hands each day until May 13, when volume spiked to 182 million. Speculators were accumulating shares in the week leading up to Roaring Kitty's tweet.

“Frankly, I’ve been trading this for the past two weeks in both directions because something has been percolating,” said Tom Hearden, senior trader at Skylands Capital.

Typically, you would expect interest in upside targets that would be easier to reach to become more in demand during the stock’s gradual rise, Sosnick said.

“This has been building for some time, someone got long big slugs of the $25 and $30 calls,” said Sosnick. “The fact that we saw the open interest creeping higher and steadily increased in the 30s faster than in the 20s, was odd, and a signal that something was up.”

Those call options, barring a repeat of the Q1 2021 and 2022 episodes, would have expired completely worthless. As of Friday, the ability to buy shares of GameStop by May 17 at a price of $30 was worth $0.43. Now, those options are worth over $20.

Compare those trends in open interest to a much larger, heavily-traded stock like Apple. Coming into the week, there was more than five times as much open interest in options that would be in the money in the event of a 4% increase in the iPhone maker compared to options with a strike price about 15% above the market close on May 17.

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Micron jumps after rare double upgrade by BNP Paribas Exane, which lifts price target to Street high of $270

Micron, the best-performing member of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF this year, is jumping on Monday thanks to converting its biggest doubter on Wall Street into its biggest fan.

BNP Paribas Exane analyst Karl Ackerman went through with a rare double upgrade of the memory chip specialist to “outperform” from “underperform.” In the process, he more than doubled his price target on the stock to $270 — the highest among analysts surveyed by Bloomberg — from $100, which had previously been the lowest price target on the Street.

“We now fully embrace high-bandwidth memory (HBM) as a sustainable, separate growth vector, and we beleive we are in the early innings of a memory supercycle,” he wrote.

Separately, analysts at Evercore ISI also boosted their price target on Micron to $137 from $100.

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IonQ soars after announcing “significant advancement in quantum chemistry simulations”

IonQ is ripping higher in early trading after the quantum computing company announced “a significant advancement in quantum chemistry simulations.”

In particular, this demonstration, performed in collaboration with a major automotive manufacturer, was more accurate than classical computing in calculating “nuclear forces at critical points where big changes occur.”

Knowing how different compounds behave and respond to force has potentially very useful commercial applications because it helps us discern how those materials can best be designed and utilized for different purposes.

“This research demonstrates a clear path for quantum computing to enhance chemical simulations that are foundational to decarbonization technologies,” said Niccolo de Masi, chairman and CEO. “Our work goes beyond academic benchmarks. It demonstrates a practical capability that can be integrated into molecular dynamics workflows used across pharmaceuticals, battery, and chemical industries.”

IonQ is the most commercially advanced pure-play quantum computing company, generating over $52 million in revenues over the past 12 months, well more than D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantum Computing combined.

Now, is this the reason why IonQ (and its peers) are on a tear today? Maybe. There’s a big rebound in most speculative pockets of the market after Friday’s tariff threat induced a tumble.

At the very least, this is a useful excuse. Traders have been exceedingly happy to bid up shares of quantum computing companies on their long-term potential, often (ironically) through short-term call options.

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Rocket Lab may be “alternative to SpaceX in the making,” says Morgan Stanley

Rocket Lab surged early Monday after Morgan Stanley analysts lifted their price target on the stock to $68 from $20, making them the high bidder among analysts covering the popular, but still money-losing, commercial space launch company.

The $68 target — right around where the shares are currently trading — is the highest among the 17 analysts tracked by FactSet.

And while Morgan Stanley analysts couldn’t bring themselves to upgrade the stock to a “buy,” leaving their rating at “equal weight,” they gave the stock a pretty bullish review, writing:

“We see a potential alternative to SpaceX in the making. The company is mirroring SpaceX’s footsteps in a number of respects, including scaling up rocket lift capacity, embracing booster reusability, and ultimately moving out on a constellation of its own (ala Starlink). Meanwhile, successive Electron launches and a growing manifest reinforce the company’s already-impressive track record. The market, in our view, is now taking valuation cues for RKLB from SpaceX’s implied valuation, which has grown from a reported ~$100bn at the end of 2021 to ~$400bn today.”

Rocket Lab shares have emerged as a favorite of retail traders this year, thanks to their gain of more than 150%. The stock is up roughly 600% over the last 12 months.

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