Moderna misses in Q4, stock does what it’s done for nearly 8 months straight: goes down

Moderna’s main revenue driver, the COVID-19 vaccine, is bringing in a fraction of what it used to.

2/14/25 7:45AM

Moderna shares slipped in early trading after the vaccine maker missed Wall Street estimates.

Moderna reported a $2.91 loss per share, compared to the $2.68 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It reported about $1 billion in sales, above the $943 million analysts expected. Its profits were impacted by an unexpected $238 million charge for a canceled manufacturing contract during the quarter.

Moderna and Pfizer were given government contracts to quickly produce a COVID-19 vaccine in 2020. But Moderna’s portfolio is less diverse than Pfizer’s, and the COVID-19 vaccine remains its top revenue driver even as demand dwindles.

Moderna said last month that it expects to post between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of revenue in 2025, compared with the nearly $3 billion analysts expected prior to the guidance.

Moderna’s stock got a bump in January after Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison said at a White House presser that artificial intelligence has the potential to make personalized vaccines to detect and prevent cancer. Though not named, the drugmaker happens to be working on exactly that kind of technology.

Growing concern over bird flu has also given investors optimism for Moderna. Last month (prior to President Trump taking office), Moderna was awarded $590 million from the Department of Health and Human Services to help develop a vaccine to protect humans from bird flu. On Thursday, Trump’s pick to run HHS, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was confirmed to run the agency.

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The longest run in the red for the benchmark US stock index in over a month.

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Retail traders are dumping Bloom Energy after near 300% rally, says JPMorgan

Retail traders are swarming for the exits in fuel cell company Bloom Energy, causing what was once a near 300% year-to-date rally to sour.

JPMorgan strategists led by Arun Jain flagged that Bloom’s net imbalance — the balance of buying versus selling among retail traders — was exceptionally negative as of 11 a.m. ET, even worse than during its double-digit drop on Wednesday.

The fuel cell company, which counts Oracle among its customers, eclipsed a market cap in excess of $20 billion earlier this week despite generating less than $2 billion in sales over the past year.

Wall Street began to sound some alarm bells about the extent of Bloom’s run this week, with Jefferies downgrading its rating for the stock to “underperform” from “hold” on Wednesday while Bank of America analysts wrote, “We are still not buying into BE’s AI hype.”

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Duolingo rises as executives talk up China opportunity

Duolingo posted a solid gain Thursday, the latest in a series of relatively light-on-news moves in the stock this month as it has regained some attention among options-trading retail investors.

There was a story in China’s official China Daily where executives laid out their plans for the language-learning app’s push into the People’s Republic, which has been a focus of Wall Street analysts on recent post-earnings conference calls.

China, where the company began doing business in 2018, is Duolingo’s fastest-growing market for its language-learning app. It’s also the largest source of test takers for its Duolingo English Test proficiency exam business, a recent focus for management spotlighted in its recent Duocon product announcements.

It’s hard to say if the China Daily story is the reason for today’s upswing in the stock, but given the necessities of working within a country controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, a relatively favorable story appearing in its international propaganda organ suggests a relatively healthy working relationship is developing there.

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Oklo dives after insider sale

Oklo dove Thursday after an SEC filing showed company director Michael Klein sold some $6.7 million in stock in transactions that, importantly, were not part of a pre-set insider sales plan.

Wall Street analysts forecast that the nuclear power startup will make losses for years to come. But the company’s ties to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who served as Oklo’s chairman until April, have helped make the stock a favorite of retail traders and a popular momentum play.

Even after today’s stumble, it’s up more than 400% this year and nearly 1,300% over the past 12 months.