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Moderna misses in Q4, stock does what it’s done for nearly 8 months straight: goes down

Moderna’s main revenue driver, the COVID-19 vaccine, is bringing in a fraction of what it used to.

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna shares slipped in early trading after the vaccine maker missed Wall Street estimates.

Moderna reported a $2.91 loss per share, compared to the $2.68 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It reported about $1 billion in sales, above the $943 million analysts expected. Its profits were impacted by an unexpected $238 million charge for a canceled manufacturing contract during the quarter.

Moderna and Pfizer were given government contracts to quickly produce a COVID-19 vaccine in 2020. But Moderna’s portfolio is less diverse than Pfizer’s, and the COVID-19 vaccine remains its top revenue driver even as demand dwindles.

Moderna said last month that it expects to post between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of revenue in 2025, compared with the nearly $3 billion analysts expected prior to the guidance.

Moderna’s stock got a bump in January after Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison said at a White House presser that artificial intelligence has the potential to make personalized vaccines to detect and prevent cancer. Though not named, the drugmaker happens to be working on exactly that kind of technology.

Growing concern over bird flu has also given investors optimism for Moderna. Last month (prior to President Trump taking office), Moderna was awarded $590 million from the Department of Health and Human Services to help develop a vaccine to protect humans from bird flu. On Thursday, Trumps pick to run HHS, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was confirmed to run the agency.

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Lucid continues its autumn rout, hitting a fresh all-time low following a price target cut by Stifel

It’s been a rough 48 days for luxury EV maker Lucid, which fell to a fresh all-time low on Monday following a price target cut by analysts at Stifel.

Stifel lowered its Lucid price target to $17, from $21, with analyst Stephen Gengaro writing that the company will likely require additional capital over the next few years. According to Stifel’s note, published Monday, Lucid’s production is improving but it’s still in the “prove-it-to-me” stage, and vehicles that could elevate sales volumes are “likely two years away.”

Last week, Lucid announced that it plans to raise $875 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031. The company lowered its production outlook and reported negative free cash flow of $955 million in its third quarter.

Since the end of the EV tax credit on September 30 — which Lucid’s pricey vehicles only qualified for through leasing loopholes — its shares are down more than 40%. Zooming out, Lucid’s stock has shed 98% of its value from its 2021 highs amid peak electric vehicle optimism.

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JPMorgan analysts, on the other hand, have a much different view.

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