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Moderna misses in Q4, stock does what it’s done for nearly 8 months straight: goes down

Moderna’s main revenue driver, the COVID-19 vaccine, is bringing in a fraction of what it used to.

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna shares slipped in early trading after the vaccine maker missed Wall Street estimates.

Moderna reported a $2.91 loss per share, compared to the $2.68 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It reported about $1 billion in sales, above the $943 million analysts expected. Its profits were impacted by an unexpected $238 million charge for a canceled manufacturing contract during the quarter.

Moderna and Pfizer were given government contracts to quickly produce a COVID-19 vaccine in 2020. But Moderna’s portfolio is less diverse than Pfizer’s, and the COVID-19 vaccine remains its top revenue driver even as demand dwindles.

Moderna said last month that it expects to post between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of revenue in 2025, compared with the nearly $3 billion analysts expected prior to the guidance.

Moderna’s stock got a bump in January after Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison said at a White House presser that artificial intelligence has the potential to make personalized vaccines to detect and prevent cancer. Though not named, the drugmaker happens to be working on exactly that kind of technology.

Growing concern over bird flu has also given investors optimism for Moderna. Last month (prior to President Trump taking office), Moderna was awarded $590 million from the Department of Health and Human Services to help develop a vaccine to protect humans from bird flu. On Thursday, Trumps pick to run HHS, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was confirmed to run the agency.

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Oklo rises after saying it’s in advanced negotiations on US plutonium recycling

Oklo shares jumped following the announcement that the company has been selected by the US Department of Energy for advanced negotiations under the Surplus Plutonium Utilization Program. Under this federal program, Oklo will help to turn excess legacy Cold War nuclear material into commercial fuel for its advanced power plants.

Read more: Inside Oklo’s audacious plan to turn leftover weapons-grade plutonium into a nuclear bridge fuel

Oklo will partner with European nuclear developer Newcleo, validating their October 2025 partnership including a Newcleo-affiliated investment of up to $2 billion, to convert material that already exists into fuel for advanced reactors, using it to generate electricity and consume it through fission.

“Fuel supply constraints are a key throttle to advanced reactor development,” said cofounder and CEO Jacob DeWitte. “This program creates a pathway to use existing surplus material as bridge fuel for advanced reactors to bring more reactors online sooner.”

Advanced nuclear companies are facing roadblocks trying to find fuel. This deal gives Oklo a chance to reduce its dependence on foreign supply chains. Wall Street is closely watching what this means for Oklo’s business model. Wedbush maintained its “outperform” rating and a $110 price target on the stock, emphasizing that this is a helpful “addition” to Oklo’s multipronged fuel strategy, rather than a stand-alone fix.

Just last month, Oklo announced a collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory and Nvidia “to support critical infrastructure development and accelerate the deployment of nuclear energy.”

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Qualcomm spikes after report that it’s selling “millions” of AI chips to TikTok owner ByteDance

Qualcomm is spiking after a Bloomberg report that the chip company is poised to sell “millions” of AI chips to TikTok owner ByteDance.

The report, citing people familiar with the matter, said these custom processors would be used to “support the social media company’s AI agent software.”

Qualcomm had come under pressure earlier this year because of softness in its China handset business in light of difficulty accessing memory chips, which are in a severe supply crunch. At one time, the company had seemingly been counting on supporting AI-enabled devices to earn its role in the boom — and still might be doing that, with analysts speculating over a potential partnership with OpenAI for an AI smartphone chip.

But it’s also been telegraphing a shift toward playing a bigger role upstream in providing hardware for data centers.

In the press release that accompanied Qualcomm’s recent earnings report, President and CEO Cristiano Amon touted the company’s entry into the data center business, with initial shipments to a “leading hyperscaler” on track for later this year, and said that investors could expect to hear more on Qualcomm’s growth plans in data center and physical AI at its Investor Day on June 24.

Seems like they’re on track.

markets

Peace is great; memory chip stocks are even better

Traders are happy about potential peace. But they’re even more happy that Micron exists.

That’s the best way to describe the price action on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump’s comments this weekend that a deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated,” along with reports that the US Navy has restarted shepherding vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, have contributed to a worldwide rally in stocks and sell-off in crude oil.

Some normal things you’d expect to see are happening:

But... there’s also some weird stuff beneath the hood.

When global stocks outperform the US by a ton, it’s generally because tech is out of favor. After all, the US market is heavily weighted toward megacap tech giants. However, a big reason why ACWX is trouncing the US is because of how insanely well the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF and iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF are doing! Those countries, of course, are even more heavily levered to AI hardware than the US market. The new Street-high view on Micron in particular is fueling gains for Korean stocks, where fellow memory chip giants SK Hynix and Samsung are the biggest components.

The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust is putting in a bigger gain than European stocks, as of 11 a.m. ET.

It’s extremely rare for Europe, a major portion of global equities, to be lagging US tech when ACWX is leaving SPY in the dust.

The combination of global equities outperforming by at least 1% while the Nasdaq 100 bests EZU hasn’t happened since December 16, 2022. If that holds, it would be only the sixth time this has happened in the past 15 years.

(My kingdom for an MSCI ACWI ex-US ex-Korea ETF... bonus points if you can throw in an ex-Taiwan, too!)

The lesson seems to be: peace is great; the small pieces that help the brains of the AI boom access information are even better.

markets

TeraWulf jumps on 1-gigawatt Kentucky data center site acquisition

TeraWulf shares are rising after the company announced it has acquired a 1-gigawatt hyperscale data center site in eastern Kentucky.

The project, known as the Muskie Data Campus, marks an expansion of the company’s digital infrastructure capabilities and accelerates TeraWulf’s transition from a bitcoin miner into an HPC and AI infrastructure provider. The newly acquired site spans 285 acres and is engineered to support more than 1 gigawatt of data center capacity over time, with the first 500 megawatts scheduled to ramp up in the second half of 2028.

The Muskie Data Campus represents TeraWulf’s second major digital infrastructure campus in Kentucky, alongside the company’s 480-megawatt Justified Data campus in Hancock County.

“This acquisition further reinforces the strategy we discussed on our first quarter earnings call: securing and developing large-scale, power-advantaged sites capable of supporting the next generation of HPC workloads,” Paul Prager, chairman and CEO of TeraWulf, said. “As we said then, the defining constraint in this market is no longer computing hardware — it is power, transmission infrastructure, and execution certainty.”

TeraWulf reported strong Q1 earnings results in early May. While heavy capital expenditure resulted in a GAAP loss, the company generated $34 million in revenue. The stock is up more than 120% year to date.

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