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Moderna misses in Q4, stock does what it’s done for nearly 8 months straight: goes down

Moderna’s main revenue driver, the COVID-19 vaccine, is bringing in a fraction of what it used to.

J. Edward Moreno

Moderna shares slipped in early trading after the vaccine maker missed Wall Street estimates.

Moderna reported a $2.91 loss per share, compared to the $2.68 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. It reported about $1 billion in sales, above the $943 million analysts expected. Its profits were impacted by an unexpected $238 million charge for a canceled manufacturing contract during the quarter.

Moderna and Pfizer were given government contracts to quickly produce a COVID-19 vaccine in 2020. But Moderna’s portfolio is less diverse than Pfizer’s, and the COVID-19 vaccine remains its top revenue driver even as demand dwindles.

Moderna said last month that it expects to post between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion of revenue in 2025, compared with the nearly $3 billion analysts expected prior to the guidance.

Moderna’s stock got a bump in January after Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison said at a White House presser that artificial intelligence has the potential to make personalized vaccines to detect and prevent cancer. Though not named, the drugmaker happens to be working on exactly that kind of technology.

Growing concern over bird flu has also given investors optimism for Moderna. Last month (prior to President Trump taking office), Moderna was awarded $590 million from the Department of Health and Human Services to help develop a vaccine to protect humans from bird flu. On Thursday, Trumps pick to run HHS, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was confirmed to run the agency.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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