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Paige Oamek & Luke Kawa56m

MongoDB sees knee-jerk drubbing then massive gains after impressive Q1 results, boost to full-year guidance

At first, it looked like another case of a software company selling off despite reporting strong results, with traders (or algorithms) sending MongoDB 21% lower in postmarket trading. That drubbing came even as the distributed database platform company beat Wall Street estimates on the top and bottom lines and lifted its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance.

What a difference seven minutes make. Those losses vanished, and then the stock proceeded to trade more than 20% higher.

Here are the Q1 numbers:

Revenue of $687.6 million (compared to analyst estimates of $664.5 million).
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.32 (estimate: $1.19).

Management hiked its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.95 to $6.14, up from a previous view of $5.75 to $5.93 and north of the $5.88 that analysts are anticipating. The annual sales outlook was also lifted to a range of $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion, up $600 million from its prior guidance and above the $2.9 billion consensus estimate.

The Q2 outlook provided by the company also bettered what the Street had penciled in for the top and bottom lines.

So for those keeping score at home, that’s a $5.6 billion drop in market cap as a knee-jerk reaction, followed by a $12.6 billion surge in value off the lows. Price discovery; it’s truly a beautiful thing.

Shares are still down year to date even after today’s volatility, but hey, the way things have been going, just give it a few minutes.

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Costco misses out on the retailer rally after mixed Q3 report

Wall Street is giving it less than five big booms.

Costco’s shares were effectively flat in after-hours trading Thursday immediately following the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings report. The retailer managed to outperform Wall Street estimates on earnings per share and membership fees, but missed on revenue overall as budget-conscious consumers looking for bulk discounts spent less than analysts had expected.

Here are the numbers:

Revenue of $69.2 billion (estimate: $69.6 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $4.93 (estimate: $4.91).
Membership fees of $1.37 billion (estimate: $1.35 billion).

At least some of the company’s revenue in Q3 was likely boosted by rising gas prices — especially because drivers often flock to Costco’s pumps looking for relatively cheaper fuel when prices elsewhere spike.

Other retailers had rosier earnings today. Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Dollar Tree all put up double-digit gains on Thursday and surpassed estimates, surprising some investors who expected to see shoppers pulling back given weakened consumer confidence.

Costco’s stock is up 17% since the beginning of the year. One buyer is President Donald Trump, who bought millions in Costco in the first calendar quarter of the year.

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Dell soars after delivering blowout quarterly results and boosting full-year guidance

Dell is soaring in postmarket trading after delivering blockbuster quarterly results and significantly raising its full-year guidance.

For its fiscal 2027 Q1, the PC and server company reported:

Net revenue of $43.8 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $35.5 billion and guidance for $35.2 billion, plus or minus $500 million).
Adjusted earnings per share of $4.86 (estimate: $2.99, guidance for $2.90).

Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion (plus or minus $2 billion), up significantly from its prior $140 billion outlook. That’s well above the $142 billion anticipated by analysts.

The bottom-line boost is even bigger, with the midpoint of its adjusted EPS guidance at $17.90, up from $12.90 previously (estimate: $13.14 billion).

Dell’s undergone a major transformation under the hood thanks to the AI boom. AI server sales, the biggest unit within its Infrastructure Solutions Group, didn’t exist until late 2023. That segment now contributes more to Dell’s top line than the entire Client Solutions Group, its mature PC-focused business. The company expects to book roughly $60 billion in AI server sales this year, up from prior guidance of about $50 billion.

The company got a big win ahead of this earnings report, receiving a $9.7 billion contract from the Pentagon to manage Microsoft software licenses across different swaths of the military.

Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks close at new records

Axios reported that the US and Iran have reached a tentative deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, pending President Trump’s approval.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91), Scottie Pippen (33) and Michael Jordan (23) during game vs Miami Heat. Miami, FL 2/23/1996

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Super Micro soars on heavy call volume as management trumpets its work with Taiwan to avoid chip smuggling into China

Super Micro Computer is spiking on elevated call demand amid the company’s push to show it’s part of the chip-smuggling solution, rather than the problem.

Call volumes are running at 392,857 as of 12:16 p.m. ET, already well north of the 214,893 average over the past 20 sessions. The put/call ratio of 0.16 is also well below the 20-day average of 0.29, underscoring the bullish tilt in options.

This morning, management put out a statement saying that the company had “worked closely with Taiwanese authorities” to help prevent its servers (which contain Nvidia’s AI chips) from making their way into China in violation of export controls, and that this collaboration “resulted in the arrest of three suspects and the seizure of 50 servers that had been deceptively acquired after being sold by Supermicro to an authorized reseller.”

The company also aimed to emphasize that none of this was its fault.

“This case highlights the challenges that can arise when products are resold through multiple downstream parties beyond direct manufacturer control,” per the statement.

Back in March, Super Micro’s cofounder was among those charged by US prosecutors for allegedly attempting to sell $2.5 billion in servers with Nvidia GPUs to China. The stock had swooned on the news and lifted fellow server companies that weren’t tainted by this association. One analyst even suggested that Super Micro lost a billion-dollar contract with Oracle in part because of these allegations.

Shares have since recovered all those losses, and then some.

On the conference call following Super Micro’s big Q3 earnings beat, CEO Charles Liang said he didn’t “feel a negative feeling” from customers at the time despite these charges.

CFO David Weigand added that the company also hasn’t seen a decrease in its allocation of chips from Nvidia in the wake of this news.

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Retail traders are making stock picking look easy

Study after study tells us that stock picking is incredibly difficult, with the lion’s share of active fund managers underperforming the S&P 500.

To that, retail traders say: “What, like it’s hard?”

According to JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain, retail investors’ stock picks are trouncing strategies that would employ dollar-cost averaging into the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and even the best-performing slices of the AI trade so far this year.

Within ETFs holdings specifically, retail’s relative performance is more mixed: besting the S&P 500 year to date, but lagging the Nasdaq 100 (again, assuming dollar-cost averaging strategies).

“In single stocks, retail has unsurprisingly outperformed benchmarks over the past month or so, consistent with a concentrated tilt toward MU, AMD, and NVDA,” Jain wrote.

JPM Retail PnL

Of course, as the old saying goes, don’t confuse brains with a bull market.

But there’s another saying that tells us to make hay while the sun shines. And it seems retail traders are making some serious hay.

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