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Home loans are getting cheaper

Mortgage rates are down to their lowest level since February 2023.

Growing certainty that the Federal Reserve will begin a substantial rate-cutting cycle later this month have helped pull mortgage rates down to their lowest level in over a year, potentially throwing a lifeline to a residential real estate market that has seen sales collapse since the Fed started raising rates to beat back inflation.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.20%, according to the weekly survey numbers produced by Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored entity that buys mortgages and packages them into government-guaranteed securities.

The rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgages is now down more than 1.5 percentage points from late October, when the Freddie Mac rate hit its recent peak of 7.79%.

With a 10% down payment, that rate drop would lower the monthly payment on a median priced house — roughly $430,000 in July — by more than $400 a month compared to when mortgage rates were at their recent high.

The drop in rates won’t solve the US real estate market’s affordability problem on its own. But it might shore up activity in a part of the economy that has been stuck in a rut.

In Q2, investment in US residential real estate shrank at a 2% annualized rate, even as the economy as a whole posted a strong 3% growth rate.

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AI “bottleneck” stocks are the big winners halfway through a tumultuous week

Memory stocks and chip-machinery companies are bouncing Wednesday, following a strong Oracle earnings report that bolstered confidence in the durability of the AI datacenter build out.

In fact, Sandisk is the top performer of the S&P 500 so far this week, rising more than 21% from Friday’s close, as of shortly after 2 p.m. ET. Memory chip maker Micron is second in line, up more than 13% in weekly gains, and hard disk drive maker Western Digital is also getting a lift.

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron, and semicap shares like KLA, have been part of the “buy-the-bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less-interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron, and semicap shares like KLA, have been part of the “buy-the-bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less-interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

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Papa John’s spikes following report of a $47-per-share take-private offer from Qatari investment fund Irth Capital

A few weeks after announcing it would close 300 stores by the end of next year, Papa John’s is drawing fresh take-private interest from Irth Capital, an investment fund backed by a member of the Qatari royal family.

Papa John’s shares were up 19% on Wednesday afternoon, on pace for their best day since February 2025.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, according to the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap nine times greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Irth is offering $47 per share for PZZA, valuing the company at about $1.5 billion. The fund currently holds a roughly 10% stake in Papa John’s, according to the report.

Irth has tried to take Papa John’s private before, offering $60 per share in a joint bid with Apollo Global in June last year. In October, Apollo Global again offered to take the company private at $64 per share. That offer was later withdrawn.

Broadly, the pizza category is being increasingly dominated by Domino’s, which opened 700 stores globally last year and has a market cap nine times greater than Irth’s latest reported offer for Papa John’s.

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