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Mortgage rates
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Home loans are getting cheaper

Mortgage rates are down to their lowest level since February 2023.

Growing certainty that the Federal Reserve will begin a substantial rate-cutting cycle later this month have helped pull mortgage rates down to their lowest level in over a year, potentially throwing a lifeline to a residential real estate market that has seen sales collapse since the Fed started raising rates to beat back inflation.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.20%, according to the weekly survey numbers produced by Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored entity that buys mortgages and packages them into government-guaranteed securities.

The rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgages is now down more than 1.5 percentage points from late October, when the Freddie Mac rate hit its recent peak of 7.79%.

With a 10% down payment, that rate drop would lower the monthly payment on a median priced house — roughly $430,000 in July — by more than $400 a month compared to when mortgage rates were at their recent high.

The drop in rates won’t solve the US real estate market’s affordability problem on its own. But it might shore up activity in a part of the economy that has been stuck in a rut.

In Q2, investment in US residential real estate shrank at a 2% annualized rate, even as the economy as a whole posted a strong 3% growth rate.

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Nvidia gains on report that Chinese officials told domestic tech champions to progress with plans for H200 imports

The “will Xi, won’t Xi?” of Nvidia’s quest to send AI chips to China got some positive news, reversing a string of recent negative reports.

Per Bloomberg, Chinese officials told leading domestic tech champions including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance that they can progress in their preparations to import Nvidia’s H200 chips, and “are now cleared to discuss specifics such as the amounts they would require,” citing people familiar with the matter.

Shares are up 1.5% as of 8:06 a.m. ET.

The outlet had previously reported that China would begin to allow H200 imports for commercial use “as soon as this quarter.” However, that was followed by reports from The Information, the Financial Times, and Reuters that Chinese companies’ ability to access these AI chips would be limited and that suppliers had paused production following what was tantamount to an import ban.

The seemingly conflicting reports from various outlets reflect the tug-of-war within the Chinese policy apparatus, which aims to balance competing priorities: bolstering its AI capabilities (which argues for using the best technology available, even if that’s from foreign sources) and supporting the development of its domestic semiconductor manufacturing industry (which pushes in the opposite direction).

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Alaska Airlines dips following weaker-than-expected 2026 earnings guidance

Alaska Airlines, America’s fifth-largest airline, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results for 2025 after the market closed Thursday. Its shares fell 2% in after-hours trading.

The airline reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $0.43 per share, beating the $0.11 expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. Its Q4 passenger revenue climbed 2% to $3.25 billion.

For the current quarter, Alaska guided for a 1% to 2% increase in capacity and an adjusted loss of $1.50 to $0.50 per share, compared to the $0.77 loss per share expected by analysts. The airline forecast full-year earnings of between $3.50 and $6.50 per share for 2026. The $5 midpoint falls short of analyst estimates of $5.52 per share.

“To hit the higher end of our guidance range we would require sustained macroeconomic recovery in 2026, at or improving on trends seen in the first three weeks of the year, and for fuel prices to stabilize,” the company said in its report.

Earlier this month, the carrier placed its largest-ever plane order, securing 110 Boeing jets to support its international growth ambitions. It plans to add flights to Rome, London, and Iceland this summer, and has said it will boost its premium seat offerings this year — in line with a wider trend of travel trends reflecting a “K-shaped economy.”

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