Musk-Trump feud triggers wave of retail dip-buying

Analysts are beginning to have doubts about US demand for EVs next year, following the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit.

Shares of Rivian dropped in premarket trading on Monday, following a downgrade of the stock from Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh from “neutral” to “underperform.” Rakesh also lowered his price target for Rivian from $14 to $10.

Looking ahead, Mizuho expects Rivian to deliver 60,000 vehicles in 2026. That’s about 38% above the EV maker’s current top target for this year, but still significantly below the 71,000 delivery consensus estimate of analysts polled by FactSet.

Shares of Beyond Meat are soaring in early trading on Monday, with retail traders hoping for a turnaround — or more realistically, a powerful short squeeze — as the embattled plant-based meat producer scrambles to raise cash to protect its viability.

As of 7:15 a.m. ET, more money had changed hands trading the faux meat firm in the premarket than the likes of Apple, Microsoft, or Palantir.

The stock cratered to an all-time low of $0.50 last Thursday after management completed a deal with nearly 97% of the holders of more than $1 billion in senior convertible notes due in 2027 (with a coupon of zero) to exchange those for $196 million in second lien notes due in 2030 (with a coupon of 7%) and more than 316 million shares, a massive dilution of existing shareholders that raised the company’s share count by more than 300%. Those noteholders are now far and away the biggest holders of the company’s equity.

A former Reddit user (who since appears to have been banned from the platform) with the handle capybaraSTOCKS appears to be at the genesis of this newfound wave of optimism surrounding the stock. The user has purportedly since moved to YouTube and says they own 4% of the company. They posted a video on Sunday explaining their thesis, including progress on the company reducing its debt load, its brand value, and the potential for a short squeeze.

“High community interest, social media buzz, and most importantly a near 500 million shares traded volume on Friday” suggest “Beyond is now entering meme stock territory,” per the video.

The stock was among the most highly shorted US companies heading into the month, with over half its shares sold short, per Bloomberg data. That number likely came down meaningfully in the short term thanks to the issuance of over 316 million shares as part of the aforementioned debt-for-equity-and-other-debt swap last week, which saw those who took the company up on its plans temporarily barred from transferring beneficial ownership or selling a large portion of the new shares.

The big news out from the Oracle AI World conference was broadly positive: that margins on cloud infrastructure can be as high as 35%, and that the company predicts $166 billion in infrastructure revenue by 2030.

And in the wake of that news, today UBS raised its price target for Oracle shares to $380 from $360, saying they are undervalued.

But investors appear to have some concerns about Oracle’s huge capex plans, which are fueled by huge AI infrastructure deals with OpenAI and Meta, as shares dropped over 7% in Friday trading.

Analysts have pointed to Oracle’s high cash burn as it pursues its AI build-out and potential financing needs as flies in the ointment that could blunt the impact of the company’s strong longer-term growth forecasts.

On Friday, Jefferies analysts wrote:

“Questions remain about ORCL’s capex requirements to meet growing demand, as there was no forward-looking commentary on capex at the Analyst Day. Capex will need to ramp in line with [Oracle cloud infrastructure] revenue growth, raising concerns about ORCL’s financing options to support this expansion.”

However, if that’s the reason why the stock is getting hit today, it would mark a distinct change in how investors are evaluating the AI trade. Companies have tended to be increasingly rewarded for their aggressive capex commitments to enhance the boom, based on optimism that investments in this would-be revolutionary technology will bear fruit.

Friday’s dip comes on the back of a strong run leading up to the yesterday’s investor conference, fueled by a flurry of AI headlines. Oracle shares have gained over 18% in the past three months and more than 70% so far this year, well outpacing the Nasdaq’s approximately 7% and 16% rise over the same time periods.