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Luke Kawa6/24/25

Nasdaq 100 posts first record closing high since February

We’re so back.

The Nasdaq 100 ended Tuesday above its previous peak of 22,175.60 from February 19 to set a new closing record.

The tech-heavy gauge, which is tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, entered a short-lived bear market amid the breakdown of AI-geared momentum trades and the announcement of onerous tariffs earlier this year. That ended on April 8, thanks to the more than 20% gain from that time through early June after levies on imports were watered down or put on ice.

The AI trade has recovered, in accordance with Wall Street’s expectations. The DeepSeek-induced shock faded with hyperscalers doubling and tripling down on their massive capex plans and tech companies booking multibillion-dollar deals with entities in the Middle East as sovereign AI spending stepped up to offer more support for the boom.

Palantir is the best-performing stock in the index this year, with other prominent names like Micron, Netflix, Constellation Energy, and DoorDash also in the top 10.

The Nasdaq 100 is a teensy bit more expensive than it was at the time of its prior record high, but 12-month forward earnings expectations for the index are nearly back at a high and have risen by more than profit estimates for the S&P 500 year to date.

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Why extreme oil price volatility sets off alarm bells for markets and the economy

Nearly every time front-month Brent futures have risen or fallen 30% or more in a month, that’s been accompanied by above-average stock market volatility. In most cases, it’s either coincided with or been soon followed by a recession.

Lightbulb and alarm clock

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Matt Phillips3h

Oil-sensitive stocks and companies relying on middle-class spending are getting crushed

Sometimes there’s a singular story driving the markets. With US benchmark crude oil prices topping $100 a barrel, Monday is one of those days.

Oil-sensitive stocks are getting clobbered, with airlines foremost among them. JetBlue, United Airlines, and Alaska Air are all tumbling.

But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.

More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.

Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.

Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.

Stock futures tumble as war drives oil above $100 for the first time since 2022

Stock futures tumble as war drives oil above $100 for the first time since 2022

But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.

More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.

Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.

Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.

Retro outdoor sign to save money on gas, Save $ on fuel

Where in the US have gas prices jumped the most since the US attack on Iran?

Drivers in some states are seeing pump prices rise much faster than others.

markets

Claire Yubin Oh4h

Live Nation reportedly reaches settlement with DOJ over Ticketmaster

Live Nation is jumping in premarket trading on Monday after reports that it has reached a settlement with the Department of Justice over an antitrust lawsuit that could have forced the company to sell Ticketmaster.

After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.

The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.

Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.

The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.

Live Nation Reaches Settlement in Federal Antitrust Case

Live Nation Reaches Settlement in Federal Antitrust Case

After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.

The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.

Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.

The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.

markets

Leo KoGuan, billionaire Tesla bull, tweets that he purchased another 1 million shares of Nvidia

Billionaire software entrepreneur, philosopher, and now major Tesla and Nvidia bull Leo KoGuan tweeted that he bought another 1 million shares of the chip designer.

“Hopefully, I can contribute a little to calm the nervous market. Good luck all,” he wrote in his message.

Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.

Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.

Billionaire Tesla bull tweets that he purchased 1 million shares of Nvidia

Billionaire Tesla bull tweets that he purchased 1 million shares of Nvidia

Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.

Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.

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