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Street Style In Paris - July 2020
A passerby wears a white pullover "Good Vibes Only", a Christian Dior CD monogram bag (Photo by Edward Berthelot/Getty Images)
It’s a mood

A new way to track the vibes in the US stock market

The new Nations Investor Optimism Index measures how investors are feeling by slicing and dicing options prices.

Luke Kawa

A new tool launches today that traders can use to try to quantify one of the murkiest topics in markets: the vibes in the investment universe.

Nations Indexes is introducing the Nations Investor Optimism Index, which the press release describes as “an intuitive measure of optimism – as well as fear and greed – experienced by investors in the US stock market.”

The index is an amalgamation of three other metrics from the Chicago-based firm: the VolDex (which tracks the implied volatility of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust), the TailDex (which tracks the price of options that would pay off if stocks plunged, i.e. a tail event), and the RiskDex (a gauge of the price of bearish options on US stocks relative to bullish ones). As a general matter, when these gauges are high, investors’ attitudes are down in the dumps and fear is rampant.

The Investor Optimism Index is equal to 100 minus the average of the percent rank for each of those metrics relative to the past years. The index's most recent reading is 38.8, suggesting sentiment is slightly downbeat but still markedly better relative to earlier in August.

“I think it can be indicative re: short-term moves and the likelihood of outsized moves, such as when the index is below 25,” said Scott Nations, President of Nations Indexes, in an email to Sherwood News. “I also hope investors will use it as a contrarian indicator, ‘Oh look, the entire world is very optimistic, the Optimism Index is at 95 so maybe it's time for me to be fearful rather than greedy.’ The opposite applies if the index is at 10.”

Nations’ indexes have been receiving some extra praise and attention in the volatility community lately, as some were much better-behaved during last week’s epic spike in the VIX Index. Many experts contend the surge in the so-called “fear gauge” was somewhat artificial in nature based on how that index is constructed.

Most readily-available sentiment gauges are survey based – that is, they ask different types of investors about their expectations for stock prices, or what their current positioning is like. Other price-based technical indicators that can be used to infer sentiment often have a strong momentum/trend-following component, or are tied to volumes traded (like the put-call ratio).

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Broadcom jumps after locking down Google as a customer for future generations of TPUs

Shares of Broadcom rose more than 3% in postmarket trading on Monday after its most important customer doubled down on the custom chip specialist’s ability to produce its most valuable commodity.

In a filing, Broadcom said that it entered into a long-term agreement with Google to supply future generations of TPUs (custom AI accelerator chips) as well as a supply assurance agreement for networking and other equipment “through up to 2031.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon indicated that Broadcom’s investor relations team told him that Google’s long-term agreement “has revenue commitments that go along with it through the timeline.”

Gemini 3 launched to rave reviews in November. The model was trained on TPUs co-developed by Broadcom and Google.

The same Monday filing showed that Broadcom, Google, and Anthropic expanded a partnership that will see the Claude developer access 3.5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity beginning in 2027, powered by the TPUs co-designed by the custom chip specialist and the search giant.

Bernstein’s Rasgon added that Broadcom’s team suggested these 3.5 gigawatts are “only part of a larger partnership over time.” He thinks Broadcom’s fiscal year 2027 guidance for AI revenues of $100 billion “is looking increasingly light” thanks to this news.

For what it’s worth, the enhanced pact with Anthropic hinges upon the firm’s ability to afford AI compute. But based on the insane trajectory of its run-rate revenue that may not be a big hurdle to clear.

“Broadcom’s expanded agreements with Google and Anthropic add rare multi-year visibility, reinforcing a $40-$50 billion AI revenue opportunity tied to Anthropic’s 3.5 gigawatt deployment starting in 2027, while building on the previously disclosed 1GW ($10 billion) starting in 2H,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada.

markets

Health insurers surge after Medicare agrees to pay 2.48% more in 2027, a bigger-than-expected boost

Health insurance stocks are surging after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it plans to boost Medicare Advantage and Part D payments by 2.48% in calendar year 2027.

The likes of CVS, Humana, UnitedHealth, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and Elevance Health are gaining in postmarket trading.

Wall Street analysts had anticipated that rates for 2027 would go up between roughly 1% and 1.5%.

These stocks had gotten crushed in late January when the Trump administration proposed relatively flat federal payment rates.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, faced headwinds from higher-than-expected costs in 2025.

markets

Iran war winners Dow, LyondellBasell downgraded by Bank of America

Dow, Inc. and LyondellBasell — two petrochemicals stocks that surged as markets priced in shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — should decline as investors focus on the long-term outlook for normalized petrochemical prices once the war resolves, Bank of America analysts wrote in a note downgrading the two stocks Monday.

BofA moved its rating on the shares from “neutral” to “underperform,” writing:

“Over time, as chemical markets normalize, we expect 1) investor focus to shiſt back to ‘normal’ or ‘sustainable’ earnings profiles and 2) the conflict to resolve without material asset rationalization, both of which likely bias shares lower over the next twelve months.”

Analysts also lowered their stance on another petrochemicals and building materials stock, Westlake, to “neutral” from “buy.”

While cutting those ratings, BofA actually raised its more near-term price targets for the shares. It upped LyondellBasell to $68 from $55, and Dow to $35 from $31.

But those price targets still imply declines of more than 10% compared to where both shares were trading late Monday morning. Both stocks are up roughly 30% since the start of the Iran war.

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