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A passerby wears a white pullover "Good Vibes Only", a Christian Dior CD monogram bag (Photo by Edward Berthelot/Getty Images)
It’s a mood

A new way to track the vibes in the US stock market

The new Nations Investor Optimism Index measures how investors are feeling by slicing and dicing options prices.

Luke Kawa

A new tool launches today that traders can use to try to quantify one of the murkiest topics in markets: the vibes in the investment universe.

Nations Indexes is introducing the Nations Investor Optimism Index, which the press release describes as “an intuitive measure of optimism – as well as fear and greed – experienced by investors in the US stock market.”

The index is an amalgamation of three other metrics from the Chicago-based firm: the VolDex (which tracks the implied volatility of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust), the TailDex (which tracks the price of options that would pay off if stocks plunged, i.e. a tail event), and the RiskDex (a gauge of the price of bearish options on US stocks relative to bullish ones). As a general matter, when these gauges are high, investors’ attitudes are down in the dumps and fear is rampant.

The Investor Optimism Index is equal to 100 minus the average of the percent rank for each of those metrics relative to the past years. The index's most recent reading is 38.8, suggesting sentiment is slightly downbeat but still markedly better relative to earlier in August.

“I think it can be indicative re: short-term moves and the likelihood of outsized moves, such as when the index is below 25,” said Scott Nations, President of Nations Indexes, in an email to Sherwood News. “I also hope investors will use it as a contrarian indicator, ‘Oh look, the entire world is very optimistic, the Optimism Index is at 95 so maybe it's time for me to be fearful rather than greedy.’ The opposite applies if the index is at 10.”

Nations’ indexes have been receiving some extra praise and attention in the volatility community lately, as some were much better-behaved during last week’s epic spike in the VIX Index. Many experts contend the surge in the so-called “fear gauge” was somewhat artificial in nature based on how that index is constructed.

Most readily-available sentiment gauges are survey based – that is, they ask different types of investors about their expectations for stock prices, or what their current positioning is like. Other price-based technical indicators that can be used to infer sentiment often have a strong momentum/trend-following component, or are tied to volumes traded (like the put-call ratio).

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Luke Kawa

Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Luke Kawa

Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

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Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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