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Luke Kawa

Nebius soars on new report that details the importance of its near $20 billion deal with Microsoft

Nebius is jumping in premarket trading after a Bloomberg report shed more light on its near $20 billion deal to supply computing power to Microsoft.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the report says that Nebius will utilize more than 100,000 of Nvidia’s flagship Blackwell chips in order to “provide computing power to internal teams creating large language models and a consumer AI assistant” for Microsoft.

The so-called “neocloud” cohort, of which Nebius and CoreWeave are the most prominent in the publicly traded space, effectively serves as overflow capacity for the AI boom. The pair have been on fire amid an all-out frenzy from hyperscalers to accumulate more computing power.

Nebius’ arrangement with Microsoft will allow the tech giant to use its own compute to focus on fulfilling demand from customers.

Remember that the stock market’s intermediate peak in February was accelerated by a breakdown in AI-geared momentum stocks on concerns that Microsoft might have already had too much data center capacity, which came on the heels of the DeepSeek-induced freak-out for the industry. Such worries have since been washed away by a steady wave of spending commitments from leading private and public tech giants that total in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

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Chip stocks post record outperformance of software companies in never-before-seen divergence

One session in 2026 brings one thing we’ve never seen before in markets: a massive divergence between the two big parts of the technology sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF absolutely trounced the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF today, with the former gaining 3.7% leaving while the latter dropped 2.9%.

The 6.6-percentage point gap is the biggest outperformance for SMH versus IGV on record, going back to December 2011.

Since these two are both parts of a broader technology whole, it’s rare to have one up a ton while the other gets shellacked. The rolling one-year correlation of daily returns for these two ETFs was about 0.8 heading into today.

There have been only three sessions (including today) where the chip stock ETF was up at least 1.5% while the software ETF was down 1.5% or more. We’ve never seen SMH gain 2% while IGV fell 2% before Friday’s session. And there’s been only one session where the reverse happened (November 11, 2024).

The opening trading day of 2026 was phenomenal for the AI picks and shovels trade, while very poor for their more downstream peers.

How and why did this happen? Who knows really, but this looks like the kind of thing where a couple major funds decide to keep their total AI exposure stable but lean into a hardware-over-software tilt when adjusting their positioning at the start of the year, which kicks off intraday momentum that forces everyone else along for the ride.

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AI downstream stocks tumble even as their picks and shovels peers soar

While the AI picks and shovels stocks are enjoying a strong start to 2026, the same can’t be said for the companies more downstream in this theme — even most of the hyperscalers.

The S&P 500’s biggest losers today include:

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