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Nike’s stock fell 20% on Friday

There isn’t just one issue bothering Nike investors

On Friday, shares in Nike dropped some 20%. That’s the worst day in Nike’s 4+ decades as a public company — a period that’s seen the athletic brand survive recessions, pandemics, supply chain issues, and scandals. The sharp fall came after the world’s most valuable provider of shoes and stuff-to-sweat-in forecast that sales are expected to drop about 10% in its current quarter.

As Nate Becker astutely observes, that is unusual for Nike not just because the company almost always grows its sales — which topped $51 billion last year — but because this quarter is an Olympic quarter. That means hundreds of Swoosh-adorned athletes will be trying to run, jump, climb, kayak, and pole-vault their way into the history books, to mention but a few of the 329 events that will feature in the upcoming Paris games. Per Becker:

An analysis of financial data going back to the 2000 summer games in Sydney shows that Nike’s sales during Olympic quarters have risen an average of 9.9%, slightly higher than an average of 7.9% during non-Olympic quarters. So a drop of 10% is especially abnormal.

So, why is Nike struggling so much?

The bad news for the company is that there isn’t just one factor being cited. Its classic footwear lines are struggling, demand in China is soft, sales and traffic to its digital properties are down, and the company is expecting to sell less to wholesalers. One factor, at least in its athletic shoe division, is the rise of competitors like On Running and Hoka — two brands that are at the forefront of the boom in “running culture”, as a growing number of communities come together across America, and indeed the world, to embrace the simplest of athletic endeavors.

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Caterpillar spikes as AI boom fuels demand for engines and turbines

Caterpillar is soaring in early trading after reporting Q1 results that crushed estimates.

The industrial bellwether reported revenues of $17.42 billion (compared to analyst estimates for $16.24 billion) with adjusted earnings per share of $5.54 (estimate: $4.63).

Behind every chatbot trying to figure out how many R’s are in strawberry is a data center in need of energy, and Caterpillar’s power generation business has been on a tear thanks to this demand.

“A record backlog provides a strong foundation for continued positive momentum,” Chairman and CEO Joe Creed said in the press release.

The industrial giant, like GE Vernova, is among the so-called “heavy assets, low obsolescence” companies that have been cashing in on the AI boom, rather than being disrupted by it.

The firm’s earnings report noted that in its power generation business, “sales increased in large reciprocating engines and in turbines and turbine-related services, primarily data center applications.”

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Equinix drops after Q1 results disappoint and boost to full-year sales guidance falls short of expectations

Equinix is falling in early trading after reporting underwhelming Q1 results.

Revenue of $2.44 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion came in modestly below expectations, and the data center REIT’s full-year guidance wasn’t as sunny as analysts had anticipated.

Management cited strong demand from AI and cloud workloads, record bookings, and a growing backlog in raising its full-year outlook for sales to between $10.14 billion and $10.24 billion. However, the midpoint of that range still falls a little short of Wall Street’s $10.22 billion estimate.

The data center REIT had surged about 42% year to date going into earnings, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 REIT industry group. After outperforming peers by more than 30% in 2026, it seems investors had little appetite to forgive any missteps.

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Hertz surges after announcing autonomous fleet partnership with Uber

Hertz is up over 15% in premarket trading Thursday on news that its affiliated operating company, Oro Mobility, is partnering with Uber to manage autonomous vehicle fleets. That means Oro will support Uber’s autonomous Lucid robotaxis with “charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, and depot staffing” in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year.

The deal also expands into driver-led fleet operations, with Oro operating vehicles — and in some cases employing drivers — on Uber’s platform, a shift toward more centralized, fleet-based ride-share models.

Uber, which exited developing its own robotaxi technology in 2020, has recently positioned itself at the center of the robotaxi push through partnerships.

The deal also expands into driver-led fleet operations, with Oro operating vehicles — and in some cases employing drivers — on Uber’s platform, a shift toward more centralized, fleet-based ride-share models.

Uber, which exited developing its own robotaxi technology in 2020, has recently positioned itself at the center of the robotaxi push through partnerships.

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Blue Owl jumps after posting better-than-expected Q1 fee-related earnings

Blue Owl Capital shares rose around 5% premarket after the company reported Q1 results that signal its broader business is resilient in the face of some stress in private credit markets.

The key numbers:

  • Assets under management of $314.9 billion (estimate: $315.4 billion).

  • Fee-related earnings of $393.6 million (estimate: $383.5 million).

Ahead of earnings, analysts flagged expectations for a softer quarter driven by weaker fundraising and elevated redemptions, particularly in Blue Owl’s retail-focused private credit vehicles. Those funds have been a key growth engine but also a pressure point as investors seek exit liquidity that the asset manager has been unwilling to provide in full. Based on the reaction, much of that concern may have already been in the price.

Shares of the stock have slumped more than 40% year to date, with Blue Owl emerging as a proxy for broader concerns across the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests have surged in recent months, at one point exceeding 40% in one fund and more than 20% in another, forcing the firm to gate withdrawals and sell assets to return capital.

The pressure has also been amplified by the firm’s exposure to software borrowers, where investors are increasingly questioning how AI could reshape the industry’s earnings durability and loan performance.

During Blue Owls February earnings call, however, co-CEO Marc Lipschultz said there were no red flags or yellow flags in its tech portfolio.

Judging by the price action in recent months, and what its peers are saying, that statement might be overly optimistic. Earlier this week, publicly traded private credit fund Ares Capital Corp marked down the value of loans to three software businesses by up to $0.18 in its Q1 report, which helped push net unrealized losses up to $357 million.

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US national average gas price has jumped to $4.30, according to AAA, the highest level since July 2022

On Thursday morning, the American Automobile Association (AAA) reported that the national average gas price in the US had risen to $4.30 per gallon — the highest level seen since July 2022 — as the global energy crisis continues to trickle down to consumers.

The fresh pain at the pump comes as more oil supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to drive up Brent crude prices, where front-month futures contracts just hit a four-year high, with the international benchmark briefly topping $126 a barrel. Unsurprisingly, if that level holds, it would be hard to foresee gas prices going anywhere but further up, given the two are so intrinsically linked.

Gas Prices Crude 04/30
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With the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain blockaded as a result of the ongoing conflict, analysts are predicting that the national average gas price could hit $4.50 per gallon in the next week or two. Indeed, Gas Buddys Patrick De Haan forecast prices reaching as high as $5 a gallon by Memorial Day, and up to $6 a gallon by later in the summer, saying, “Nothing’s impossible at this point.

However, according to AAA data, gasoline prices have already topped $6 a gallon in California, marking the highest level since October 2023. For context, no other state has ever surpassed the $6-a-gallon mark, with Bloomberg reporting that the price in the state was $4.64 a gallon at the outset of the war.

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