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J. Edward Moreno2h

Novo Nordisk sinks after its experimental obesity drug falls short of Eli Lilly’s in head-to-head trial

Novo Nordisk sank after the newest generation of its weight-loss shot, CagriSema, failed to show it was more effective than tirzepatide, the weight-loss and diabetes drug sold by Eli Lilly.

In a head-to-head trial, patients taking Novo’s drug lost 23% of their body weight after 84 weeks, compared to 25.5% with tirzepatide. Novo said it is exploring additional trials to test CagriSema, including higher-dose combinations.

The results are a hit to Novo, which was the first to bring GLP-1s to market but has now been outsold by Eli Lilly and faces increased competition from new competitors planning to bring weight-loss drugs to market. Earlier this month, Novo predicted that its sales would decline by between 5% and 13% in 2026 amid rising competition.

The company recently debuted its Wegovy pill, the first GLP-1 pill for weight loss to come to market. Early uptake has been strong, but Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, is also coming to market later this year.

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Tech winners haven’t crushed tech losers by this much since the dot-com bubble was bursting

The performance gap between the tech sector’s winners and losers has reached the 100th percentile, widening to levels not seen since 2000.

That’s according to Jeff deGraaf, head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research, who flagged the magnitude of this divergence in fortunes within the industry in a note to clients.

The story of the technology trade in 2026 was made clear on the first trading day of the year, with a record outperformance of semiconductor stocks versus their software counterparts.

Since then, software has continued to flounder as new AI tools pull forward the timetable for potential disruption and threaten to undermine the perceived safety of the software industry’s recurring revenue streams and margins. Within the hardware space, the list of winners have become even narrower, with investors focused on data center capex beneficiaries, particularly in memory and semicap equipment.

“To see similar levels of performance differential between winners and losers requires a trip back to 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting and the semis were holding up relative to the speculative internet related names,” deGraaf wrote. “Beware chasing good charts in technology, and at the margin, reduce exposure.”

L/S Momentum Russell 1000 Technology — Source: Renaissance Macro Research

Year to date, the best performers in the Russell 1000 Technology Index (and presumably, the best charts) include Sandisk, Western Digital, Corning, Vertiv Holdings, Micron, and Applied Materials.

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OpenAI boosted its revenue and cash burn forecasts, The Information reports

According to a new report from The Information, OpenAI is boosting both how much cash is expected to come through the door and how much they’ll be sending out of it.

The ChatGPT maker increased its revenue projection for the next five years by 27% while also forecasting $112 billion in additional cash burn (or more than twice as much as previously expected), per the report. New revenue streams like advertisements are likely contributing to this improved top-line outlook.

More cash outflows, of course, necessitate that the firm be given more money to spend. OpenAI is in the midst of nailing down a $100 billion funding round in which Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank are expected to be major contributors. It’s expected to be valued at $730 billion, per various media reports, as ChatGPT remains the most heavily-used chatbot.

CNBC, citing sources, also reports that “OpenAI is telling investors that it’s now targeting roughly $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030, months after CEO Sam Altman touted $1.4 trillion in infrastructure commitments.”

However, it’s unclear whether this represents scaled-down ambitions or more of a timing mismatch, as Altman tweeted, “We are looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years” in November.

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Futures fall after President Trump announces new global tariff rate boosted to 15%

10% global tariffs will be 15% global tariffs.

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, President Donald Trump said he was boosting new levies slated to go into effect after the Supreme Court ruled against his reciprocal tariff regime. Stocks jolted lower on Sunday evening as traders digested the news and remained in the red on Monday morning, with futures on the S&P 500 Index off 0.53%, while contracts tied to the tech-heavier NDX are off 0.7%.

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 sets a ceiling of 15% on the tariff rate that can be imposed “to deal with large and serious United States balance-of-payments-deficits,” which was cited as part of the rationale for this measure.

This tax on imports can stay in place for 150 days; afterwards congressional approval would be required. It will not apply to a variety of different products, including energy, critical minerals, certain electronics, passenger vehicles, and goods that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

In press interviews on the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this global tariff as a “five-month bridge” during which time the administration will go through the process of enacting tariffs using alternative authorities.

JPMorgan estimates that the effective US tariff rate will fall modestly as a result of the end of IEEPA tariffs and utilization of Section 122.

“The macro impact of these developments shouldn’t be huge,” writes JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli. “This isn’t to say there won’t be headaches for importers juggling different tariff schedules, but the difference in the aggregate fiscal burden of the tariffs on domestic purchasers is not enough to have a big effect on our outlook.”

That being said, the US effective tariff rate has risen meaningfully during each of President Trump’s terms in office. Trump Always Raises Tariffs (TART).

“President Trump really believes that tariffs work and that trade deficits are bad,” writes Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at PIMCO. “Given the tools he has, we should expect tariff and trade policy uncertainty to last as long as Trump is in the White House.”

However, the smaller set of tools the president is being forced to work with have “substantially greater process constraints in place, meaning that the planning uncertainty for firms is reduced even if the administration is committed to reinstating some of the tariffs,” writes Peter Williams, economist at 22V Research. “The whimsical nature of the process over the past year is gone and with it much of the day-to-day uncertainty.”

Stocks jump after Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

Stocks jump after Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 sets a ceiling of 15% on the tariff rate that can be imposed “to deal with large and serious United States balance-of-payments-deficits,” which was cited as part of the rationale for this measure.

This tax on imports can stay in place for 150 days; afterwards congressional approval would be required. It will not apply to a variety of different products, including energy, critical minerals, certain electronics, passenger vehicles, and goods that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

In press interviews on the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this global tariff as a “five-month bridge” during which time the administration will go through the process of enacting tariffs using alternative authorities.

JPMorgan estimates that the effective US tariff rate will fall modestly as a result of the end of IEEPA tariffs and utilization of Section 122.

“The macro impact of these developments shouldn’t be huge,” writes JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli. “This isn’t to say there won’t be headaches for importers juggling different tariff schedules, but the difference in the aggregate fiscal burden of the tariffs on domestic purchasers is not enough to have a big effect on our outlook.”

That being said, the US effective tariff rate has risen meaningfully during each of President Trump’s terms in office. Trump Always Raises Tariffs (TART).

“President Trump really believes that tariffs work and that trade deficits are bad,” writes Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at PIMCO. “Given the tools he has, we should expect tariff and trade policy uncertainty to last as long as Trump is in the White House.”

However, the smaller set of tools the president is being forced to work with have “substantially greater process constraints in place, meaning that the planning uncertainty for firms is reduced even if the administration is committed to reinstating some of the tariffs,” writes Peter Williams, economist at 22V Research. “The whimsical nature of the process over the past year is gone and with it much of the day-to-day uncertainty.”

Luke Kawa, Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks rise as the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs

In response, Trump said he was imposing a 10% global tariff effective immediately under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.

Chicago Bulls Mascot Benny the Bull dunks the ball during the halftime show of the Missouri Valley Conference college basketball game between the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers and the Illinois State Redbirds on February 2, 2019.

markets

Max Knoblauch2/20/26

Lucid cuts 12% of its US workforce in a profitability push

EV maker Lucid announced on Friday it is laying off 12% of its US workforce as part of its efforts to improve profitability.

This is Lucid’s third round of layoffs since March 2023. At the end of 2024, the company said it had 6,800 employees globally.

“This difficult but necessary decision was made to improve operational effectiveness and optimize our resources as we continue on our path toward profitability,” interim CEO Marc Winterhoff told employees in an email published by Business Insider. The company has been without a permanent CEO since February 2025.

Lucid has worked to boost its cash reserves in recent months. Late last year it announced plans to raise $875 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031.

Lucid Motors slashes 12% of its workforce as it seeks profitability | TechCrunch

Lucid Motors slashes 12% of its workforce as it seeks profitability | TechCrunch

“This difficult but necessary decision was made to improve operational effectiveness and optimize our resources as we continue on our path toward profitability,” interim CEO Marc Winterhoff told employees in an email published by Business Insider. The company has been without a permanent CEO since February 2025.

Lucid has worked to boost its cash reserves in recent months. Late last year it announced plans to raise $875 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031.

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