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Luke Kawa

Nvidia and AMD’s different deals show that while AI chatbots may be commoditized, the chips aren’t

One enigma I’m noticing in the AI boom?

The publicly available chatbots, effectively the best universal manifestation of artificial intelligence we have, feel more or less the same to me. That is, commoditized.

Maybe this is a skill issue; I’m not the most high-tech person. That being said, I have experienced substantial performance gaps between paid and free versions, and am aware that more specialized tools offer better tailored results for certain tasks (i.e. Claude Code). But still, I’m Gemini-first, but polyAImorous when it comes to chatbot usage.

Based on how Big Tech companies treat GPUs, the inputs used to train and run many chatbots, those seem to be anything but commoditized.

Two of the AI chip deals reached by Advanced Micro Devices, the No. 2 in GPUs, have involved the company forking over the rights to potentially massive equity stakes in the company in exchange for securing these buyers. First was OpenAI, then Tuesday’s pact with Meta.

Lisa Su and co. seemingly can’t get customers on normal terms the way Jensen Huang and co. can.

Nvidia, which reports earnings Wednesday after the close, enjoys a dominant market position. Sure, it subsidizes its customers’ acquisitions of chips, but it could be argued that this is just a way in investing in its own success by trying to make sure the company has as many viable future clients as possible. Nvidia and Meta’s “multi-year, multi-generational strategic partnership” that will see the social media giant buy millions of GPUs in the former didn’t involve the chip designer needing to give Mark Zuckerberg any potential equity exposure.

Nvidia’s offerings are able to command a significant premium because its hardware not only comes with a track record, but it’s also attached to the CUDA software system that AI developers are comfortable with.

In a sense, some of the best industry comps here are found in energy (something AI data centers chock-full of GPUs need a lot of!).

Different forms of crude can be refined into the same kind of gasoline; your car won’t know the difference. Similarly, hydropower, solar power, or natural gas can all be used to generate electricity, and as long as the lights are on, people won’t be able to tell which one it was.

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Intel shares are officially a thing

April most definitely has not been the cruelest month for US chip giant Intel or its shareholders.

The stock is on a remarkable run that’s made it the best performer in the S&P 500 for the month, posting a gain of nearly 43% shortly after 11 a.m. ET Friday. That’s outdone AI darlings like Sandisk, Lumentum, Ciena Corp., Coherent, and Seagate Technology Holdings.

In fact, the monthly view actually underplays the extent of the stock’s performance. Over the eight sessions that ended yesterday — which includes March 31 — the stock was up just shy of 50%. That’s by far its best eight-day streak over the last 30 years.

Investors have eaten up Intel’s announcements this week of partnerships, first with Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Terafab project, and separately, with Alphabet on developing custom chips for Google Cloud’s AI infrastructure needs.

More broadly, the seemingly relentless demand for computing capacity and chips related to AI seems to present, at least, the prospect of Intel actually solving the long-standing problems at its contract chipmaking business — known as a foundry — that have weighed on the business for years.

Oh, being partially nationalized by the US government amid an increasing global focus on ensuring secure supply chains for crucial technologies like semiconductors probably doesn’t hurt either.

(In case you're keeping track, the US bought a nearly 10% stake in Intel for about $8.9 billion in late August of last year. Today, that stake is worth about $27 billion.)

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Palantir’s slide continues, but President Trump tries to help

Investors were selling Palantir shares again on Friday, with the stock falling as much as 6% before stabilizing, thanks to an assist from the White House.

At its worst moments, the sell-off put the retail favorite on track for its worst weekly loss (more than 16%) since February 2021.

But Palantir has powerful friends: President Trump posted on Truth Social celebrating the company’s “great war fighting capabilities,” sending the stock higher, though it remained in the red.

Truth post on PLTR
(Truth Social)

The overall negative sentiment seems to stem from Anthropic’s powerful new AI models, at least judging from the latest epistle from Palantir bull Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities:

“Anthropic released a new product around multi-agent orchestration, which continues to add more headwinds to the software sector. While Anthropic is hitting a new scale with the company now at $30 billion [annual run rate], up from $9 billion at the start of the year, we believe this is not at the expense of PLTR’s business as the company continues to accelerate both its US commercial and government businesses.”

Of course, the specter of AI undermining of other software companies has been a well-established theme for months. And it’s clearly at play in the market on Friday, with Palo Alto Networks, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike, Zscaler, Figma, and Atlassian continuing to get clocked on negative AI implications.

But the recent inclusion of Palantir among the pack of potentially replaceable software providers is newer, with the view popularized by well-followed market commentator Michael Burry’s pronouncement — since deleted — that Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch,” which seemed to contribute to the downdraft for Palantir today.

The stock dove through its 50-day moving average in recent days, underscoring the sputtering momentum for what has been one of the market’s biggest winners over the last couple years. Long-term holders are still up massively, with the stock up about 1,400% over the last three years.

124% 🚗

China exported more than twice as many electric vehicles (and plug-in hybrids) in the first quarter of 2026 as it did in the same period last year, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

New energy vehicle exports surged 124% year over year, as major players like BYD and Chery ramped up overseas efforts to combat lower domestic sales. Tesla’s China business also boosted exports, shipping 164% more EVs than the same period the year before.

Nio is ramping up export efforts as well, with a goal to deliver “several thousand” EVs overseas this year and have a presence in 40 countries. Still, the automaker exported 271 vehicles in Q1 — less than half of a percent of the company’s total deliveries.

According to the CPCA, April will see the country’s automotive industry continue its “slow recovery.”

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