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Luke Kawa

Nvidia and AMD’s different deals show that while AI chatbots may be commoditized, the chips aren’t

One enigma I’m noticing in the AI boom?

The publicly available chatbots, effectively the best universal manifestation of artificial intelligence we have, feel more or less the same to me. That is, commoditized.

Maybe this is a skill issue; I’m not the most high-tech person. That being said, I have experienced substantial performance gaps between paid and free versions, and am aware that more specialized tools offer better tailored results for certain tasks (i.e. Claude Code). But still, I’m Gemini-first, but polyAImorous when it comes to chatbot usage.

Based on how Big Tech companies treat GPUs, the inputs used to train and run many chatbots, those seem to be anything but commoditized.

Two of the AI chip deals reached by Advanced Micro Devices, the No. 2 in GPUs, have involved the company forking over the rights to potentially massive equity stakes in the company in exchange for securing these buyers. First was OpenAI, then Tuesday’s pact with Meta.

Lisa Su and co. seemingly can’t get customers on normal terms the way Jensen Huang and co. can.

Nvidia, which reports earnings Wednesday after the close, enjoys a dominant market position. Sure, it subsidizes its customers’ acquisitions of chips, but it could be argued that this is just a way in investing in its own success by trying to make sure the company has as many viable future clients as possible. Nvidia and Meta’s “multi-year, multi-generational strategic partnership” that will see the social media giant buy millions of GPUs in the former didn’t involve the chip designer needing to give Mark Zuckerberg any potential equity exposure.

Nvidia’s offerings are able to command a significant premium because its hardware not only comes with a track record, but it’s also attached to the CUDA software system that AI developers are comfortable with.

In a sense, some of the best industry comps here are found in energy (something AI data centers chock-full of GPUs need a lot of!).

Different forms of crude can be refined into the same kind of gasoline; your car won’t know the difference. Similarly, hydropower, solar power, or natural gas can all be used to generate electricity, and as long as the lights are on, people won’t be able to tell which one it was.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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