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CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang (Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix/Getty Images)

Nvidia’s earnings report is the biggest market event left in 2024

The options market expects a bigger stock-market move from Nvidia’s earnings than upcoming jobs numbers, inflation data, or the Federal Reserve meeting.

Luke Kawa

11/19/24 12:14PM

Nvidia isn’t the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year, but it is the most important driver of the US benchmark index’s massive gains.

The chip designer singlehandedly accounts for about 23% of the S&P 500’s total return year to date, nearly as much as the rest of the Magnificent 7 combined.

And with the broader upswing in semiconductors faltering, there’s a lot of pressure on Nvidia to deliver when it reports quarterly results on Wednesday after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $0.74, and the company’s outlook will be closely scrutinized for signs on how much staying power is in the AI spending binge and how the deployment of its new Blackwell chip is going.

In a note on Sunday, Bank of America analysts led by Gonzalo Asis flagged how this company-specific event is also “a very big deal for the broader market.”

“The implied move for the S&P 500 on that day has been fluctuating with Nvidia’s own earnings implied move,” they write. “And options are assigning more broad market risk around Nvidia earnings than around next month’s non-farm payrolls and CPI days, and as much as the December FOMC.”

In other words, the options market is calling this the most important event left this year.

BofA2024events — Source: Bank of America

SPXNVDAimpliedmove — Source: Bank of America

That same options market is showing signs of bullish sentiment on Nvidia through Christmas.

Looking at some metrics from Nations Indexes, the CallDex on the stock (how expensive purchasing one-month out-of-the-money upside is) is higher than the PutDex (the same thing, but for options that protect against drops) as of 10:24 a.m. ET today.

NationsNvidiaCallDex — Source: Nations Indexes

For the Friday expiry in particular, there’s far more open interest in out-of-the-money calls than out-of-the-money puts. Combined with the relative pricing of these options — a 5% out-of-the-money call has a higher implied volatility than a 5% out-of-the-money put option — this implies traders are optimistic on the outcome of Wednesday’s big event.

Bank of America’s team, however, sees opportunities on the other side of the trade.

“Given single stock fragility on the rise and easing post-election euphoria, we find it sensible to hedge the potential added impact on the broader market in case Nvidia disappoints,” they conclude.

Tasha Matsumoto

21m

Stocks set second consecutive closing highs

The S&P 500 posted its fifth weekly gain, its longest weekly winning streak since 2024.

Chicago Bulls Dennis Rodman (91), Scottie Pippen (33) and Michael Jordan (23) during game vs Miami Heat. Miami, FL 2/23/1996

Max Knoblauch5h

US airlines pop on report Spirit preparing to shut down as government rescue deal fails to gain support

US airlines are spiking on Friday following a Wall Street Journal report that low-budget carrier Spirit Airlines is preparing to shut down. According to CBS News, the airline could cease operations as early as Saturday, barring an intervention.

In late April, President Trump said he would “love somebody to buy Spirit.” The administration weighed a $500 million rescue package, though it received significant blowback from members of Congress and ultimately didn’t receive support from Spirit’s creditors.

On Friday, Trump told reporters that the administration has given Spirit a “final proposal.”

Shares of Spirit’s rivals surged on the report, with budget carriers like Frontier Airlines and JetBlue climbing by double digits. The big four — Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines — rose by low single digits. Alaska Air and Allegiant also saw a bump.

Helena Cheng6h

Estée Lauder gets a glow-up after earnings beat, guidance hike

Estée Lauder shares are soaring after the beauty giant released Q3 earnings results that topped expectations and raised its full-year outlook, while also expanding its restructuring plan.

The key numbers:

Revenue of $3.71 billion (compared to analysts’ estimate of $3.69 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 (estimate: $0.65).

Estée Lauder also lifted its full-year earnings outlook to a range of $2.35 to $2.45 per share, up from $2.05 to $2.25 previously.

The bottom line is getting flattered by job cuts, with management increasing that target to as many as 10,000 roles, up from a prior range of 5,800 to 7,000, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and shift toward faster-growing sales channels.

The rally comes after a tough stretch for the stock, which is down more than 20% year to date, with the results inspiring hope that its turnaround efforts will bear fruit.

CEO Stéphane de La Faverie said fiscal 2026 is “promising to be the pivotal year we intended,” with the company expecting to restore organic sales growth and expand margins for the first time in four years.

Amid these positive signals, Estée Lauder flagged risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and potential disruptions tied to the Middle East.

Matt Phillips

FLASHBACK

Stocks like Dell, Intel, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Cisco are on fire.

J. Edward Moreno9h

Moderna beats Q1 estimates and reaffirms full-year guidance

Moderna rose in premarket trading after it reported earnings results that beat Wall Street expectations and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

For the first three months of 2026, the company reported:

An adjusted loss per share of $3.40, less than the $4.45 loss per share analysts polled by FactSet had expected.
Revenue of $352 million, more than the $236 million the Street was anticipating. About 80% of that came from outside the US, the company said.

For the full year in 2026, the company still expects:

Revenue to grow 10%. Currently, analysts are penciling in $2 billion in 2026 sales, which is about a 5% increase.

Moderna was tapped by the US government to quickly develop a vaccine for COVID-19 in 2020, a product that has seen its sales plummet, but remains the company’s main source of revenue.

Now, the company sees growth on the horizon this year, after the European Commission approved its combination vaccine for the flu and COVID-19 for adults ‌50 years and older. Indeed, Moderna said a growing share of its revenue is coming from international markets.

The company has had a harder time getting approval from the US Food and Drug Administration, though the agency said in February that it would reconsider its stand-alone flu vaccine.